Steve Quayle News Alerts

November 8, 2002

"A few white soldiers will scare the shit out of the gooks and the war will be over in no time at all" -- US. Gen. Church, July 2, 1950, Pusan, Korea.

"Lunch in Pyongyang, dinner in Sinyiju and war will be over in one day," - Gen. Chae Byong Duk, ROKA Commander-in-Chief, May 1950, Seoul, Korea.

The United States lost nearly a quarter million men (dead, wounded or captured) and depleted its military assets leaving the US homeland bare and unprotected during the Korean War - because its military was not prepared to fight the real enemy. In spite of the mountains of intelligence that foretold imminent invasion by Kim Il Sung's army and later, of a massive injection of Chinese armies, the US military underestimated the enemy capability and failed to adequately prepare to deal with the enemy actions.

The US military is still glowing over its easy victory in the Desert Storm, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, and Bosnia. The US high tech weapons defeated poorly equipped and led hordes with scarcely suffering any significant loss. Saddam Hussein's much touted Mother of All Wars turned into a Mother of All Rout; Milosowitz's Russian missiles turned out to be duds; and bin Laden's biochemical-nuclear weapons in Afghanistan were proven to be empty bravado.

The Republican take over of the US Congress has made Bush more hawkish than ever. Bush has made clear that he will deal with North Korea peacefully, 'initially', but more strongly (militarily) later after he is finished with Iraq. Bush has ordered Japan and South Korea to stop any economic dealings with North Korea. He wants Japan and South Korea to soften up North Korea first before his planned nuclear attack. Bush and his allies in Japan and Seoul believe it will be an easy win.

I. What the 'experts' are saying:

Wars break out when hostile nations convince themselves that they can win a war with an acceptable level of casualties and of risk to their homeland. Experts on North Korea in the United States, Japan, and South Korea believe that North Korea can be "shot out of the water" with an acceptable level of risk. They say that only about 50,000 US troops would die in a new war with North Korea.

What about Japan, South Korea, and the US homeland?

Well, there will be some damage to Seoul and other parts of South Korea, and South Korean casualties may be about ten times higher that the US casualties. Japan may be hit with some missiles but the damage would be negligible. There is no danger to the US homeland, because North Korea has no way of reaching the continental USA. How many South Koreans and Japanese will die is of little concern to Bush, who will go alone with Japan if South Korea, which has the most to lose, chickens out.

What about North Korea's Missiles?

The 'experts' say that North Korea has about 1,000 'primitive Scud missiles' and that 'they are notoriously inaccurate and unreliable.' During the Gulf War, Saddaam fired scores of Scuds, similar to what North Korea has, but they did little damage. North Korea supposedly has some 2-stage and 3-stage missiles, which in principle can reach targets in the United States. But they will never take off because 'US guided missiles will blow them apart on their launch pads' even before they are launched Some of the missiles may make it but they will not do much damage, even if they reach their targets, because they are 'so unreliable.' The Patriot anti-missile missiles will take care of any incoming North Korean rockets.

What about North Korea's Nukes?

North Korea has 1-2 'primitive nuclear devices' that can be trucked into South Korea and detonated. These devices are comparable to the Hiroshima bomb and may kill about 100,000 South Koreans and some Americans - an acceptable cost for the US military.  There is no danger of Japan or the US homeland being nuked by North Korea. At worst, South Korea will see one or two nukes. Loss of 100,000 is nothing for a nation that has 50 million people.

What about China and Russia?

Unlike in the Korean War of 1950-53, China and Russia will not help North Korea - in fact, they may join the US in its holy war against North Korea. Why? Both China and Russia need money from the United States, Japan, and South Korea. North Korea has nothing to offer China and Russia.

II. What if the 'experts' are wrong?

The United States has been building up for war with North Korea for decades.  As Bush implied in his recent speech, North Korea will be next after Iraq and North Korea should be ready for action.

US Submarines:

According to a Japanese newspaper (JapanToday, October 3, 2002 at 17:30 JST), an American nuclear submarine, The USS Helena, a 6,000 ton Los Angeles class attack submarine, collided with an unidentified 'fishing boat' in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) in October this year. The 'fishing' boat was apparently tracking the American sub. When you see one sub, you can bet your boots that there are other sub lurking around in the West Sea and the East Sea. When the time comes, these subs will launch thermonuclear warheads on North Korea, turning it into a file of radioactive junks.

North Korean 'fishing' boats track US subs on the surface and North Korean subs shadow the US subs under the water. It is believed that North Korea has modern anti-sub missiles that zero in on submerged submarines. When the time comes, North Korean subs and surface ships will attack the US subs before they can fire any missile.

US Smart Bombs - Cruise Missiles:

During the war against Yugoslavia, US warplanes fired smart bombs and cruise missiles at the enemy targets from miles away, well beyond the range of the enemy missiles. The US military will employ the same methods: US bombers will fire guided missiles at North Korean targets from places North Koreans cannot reach. The US plan is to take out North Korean missiles and artillery pieces before they can be fired. After the initial barrage of cruise missiles, South Korean and Japanese war planes will be sent in to mop up any targets still in operation.

North Korea has long-range ground-to-air missiles and they will be launched to take out US war planes. However, North Korea's best defense against US cruise missiles is to launch all of its missiles at once and open up with its heavy artillery at the first sign of an US military move - 'use it or lose it.'

North Korea isolated?

It is unlikely that China or Russia will send in troops to help North Korea. But one should remember that China is America's #1 enemy in the 21st Century just as Russia was in the 20th Century. China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Cuba and a host of other nations would love to see America bloodied and weakened. To some of these nations, North Korea will be fighting a proxy war for them and they will stand behind and provide assistance to their proxy. The more damage North Korea inflicts upon the United States, the happier these nations would be.

It should be noted that the Korean War was in effect a proxy war between the United States and the Soviet Union. The next war in Korea will be a proxy war between the United Stated and an alliance of nations that resent the US power play.

III. North Korea's War Scenario:

North Korea's success or failure will depend on its ability to strike first. It must shoot all of its missiles and artillery shells more or less at once, and then hunker down for a long ground war.  Its ground troops will move down a few miles across the DMZ to mop up any US and South Korean troops who survive the opening salvo of WMD shells.

Missiles and WMD

North Korea has 500-1000 missiles that can reach any target in South Korea, Japan, Okinawa and Guam. It is not likely that North Korea has enough nuclear warheads for all of its missiles, but it does have more than enough biochemical warheads for its missiles. The 'experts' say that North Korean missiles are 'wobbly' and inaccurate. Missiles tipped with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are not meant to take out military targets that require pinpoint accuracy, but they are terror weapons for extended civilian targets - cities, water reservoirs, power grids, and so on.

North Korea has a small fleet of ICBMs - estimated to be a dozen or so. Some of these may reach the US homeland with WMD warheads. Even a single WMD warhead exploding in the United States will cause a pandemonium and major economic disruptions. North Korea's ICBMs are more for political objectives than military. The real punch will come from North Korea's medium and short-range missiles launched from 'fishing' boats on the US homeland from its coastal waters.

Unlike in the Korean War of 1950-53, when Japan escaped unscathed, the next war will see Japanese cities in ruins and its economy devastated. Japanese cities are well within the range of North Korea's 500+ mid-range missiles and North Korea's special forces.

'Suicide Bombers' - Special Forces:

A pair of snipers virtually shut down the US capital last month. A handful of terrorists brought down the Twin Tower and almost wrecked the Pentagon and the White House. North Korea has over 100,000 suicide bombers. It is plausible that some of these are already in place - disguised as Japanese or South Korean fishermen cruising the coastal waters of the United States and Japan awaiting for the signal to attack. In addition, small planes, helicopters, subs and speedboats will land these men behind enemy lines.

North Korea's special forces are trained to explode nuclear reactors in South Korea, Japan and the United States, to carry and detonate WMD deep in enemy population centers, and to cause maximum damages to economic and military infrastructures.

Heavy Guns:

North Korea has amassed 1,000 or so heavy guns along the DMZ. These guns are hidden in caves and shielded from enemy bombs. The guns will lob WMD shells on Seoul and beyond. North Korea knows that each gun has enough time to fire 50-100 shells before it is discovered and silenced, and so the guns will open up and keep on firing non-stop. Unlike the missiles - that will fire on targets in Japan and the United Stated, heavy guns will be used against targets in South Korea. The US military planners consider destruction of Seoul with its 10+ million inhabitants an acceptable cost of war. And South Korean hawks agree with the US.

Nuclear Weapons:

Most 'experts' do not believe North Korea has any significant inventory of nuclear weapons. They claim that North Korea, a backward and bankrupt nation, has neither the technical know-how or the manufacturing capacity to fabricate nuclear bombs on a large scale.

What about the claim by the US CIA that North Korea has 'one or two' nukes? Some experts claim that Stalin gave two nukes to Kim Il Sung a few months before he died in 1953. Stalin wanted Kim to wage a proxy nuclear war with the United States - according to these 'experts'. Some others claim that Iran, Iraq or Pakistan gave North Korea two nukes in exchange for North Korea's missiles. Some experts claim that North Korea bought nukes from a former USSR republic.

All of these claims probably do have some elements of truth. North Korea's nuclear program began in 1950 at the time when much of North Korea was under US forces. North Korea's nuclear program was initially pushed by Korean scientists who had worked on Japan's nuclear program during WWII. Japan had a cyclotron and a secret atomic bomb project in Hungnam where a large uranium mine is located nearby.

North Korea's nuclear program expanded rapidly since its humble start in 1950. The old scientists trained in Japan and the United Stated were replaced by new ones trained in Russia, Europe and North Korea. Kim Il Sung remembered the US threats of nuclear weapons and poured all of his resources on making his own nuclear weapons and the means, missiles, submarines, ships, and host nations, to deliver them to the US homeland. It is believed North Korea succeeded in making 'crude' bombs in the 1970s, 20 years after starting its own nuclear program. The bombs were of Nagasaki-type plutonium implosion.

It is believed that North Korea mastered the art of making H-bombs by the 1980's. The move from making plutonium bombs to making thermonuclear bombs is trivial. Essentially an H-bomb is a plutonium bombs with LiD and U-238 casings. A small plutonium bomb initiates fusion that creates high-energy particles that cause U-238 to fission. The beauty of the H-bomb is that only a tiny amount (less than 1 kg) of plutonium is required to burn a large mass of U-238 that can be mined cheaply in North Korea. Advanced nuclear bombs use laser beams, instead of Pu triggers, to initiate fusion. Some experts believe North Koreans made major breakthroughs in laser applications as early as the 1980s, and it may be that North Korean H-bombs use laser beams to trigger fusion.

North Koreans have in the past implied that they have the H-bomb. The "exerts" pooh-pooh this claim. They say that making the H-bomb requires a lot of 'advanced' technology that North Korea does not have. "There is no way North Koreans could have made the H-bomb and they are just bluffing," the experts say.

North Korean Bluffing?

It seems history repeats itself. The US military consistently underestimated the enemy strength and had to pay dearly. "North Korea is a poor, starving nation, which is about to fall apart," they say and so, "there is nothing to worry about. Drop a few nuclear bombs and North Korea will be gone like Iraq and Afghanistan."

Wars break out when one side sees an easy victory. The US and its allies - Japan and South Korea - see an easy prey, hungry and emaciated, and may decide to mount an preemptive strike in the very near future.

What North Korea should do now is to demonstrate its nuclear capability. Show the world how much damage it can inflict upon war hawks in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, DC.

North Korea can put up a convincing show in several ways:

* Fire a short-range missile with a low-yield thermonuclear warhead in the East Sea or the Pacific.
* Detonate an H-bomb underground, making sure tritons escape into the atmosphere for the US spies..
* Detonate an H-bomb trigger with LiD in the upper atmosphere.

Doing so may be the best defense North Korea has against attacks by the US and its Korean and Japanese 'allies.'   If this does not impress the US and its allies, then war will be inevitable.

North Korea should seek active allies that will open up other fronts. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Cuba, Yugoslavia, and some other nations may join in the war. North Korea will most likely share its WMD and missiles with these nations. Bush says he will come after North Korea when he is finished with Iraq. North Korea should not wait and strike before Bush is done with Iraq. A pan-Islamic Jihad against Israel and the United States will help North Korea. Die-hard Communists in the Chinese and Russian security forces will come to North Korea's aid.

http://www.kimsoft.com/2002/kji-next.htm