Mideast Roundup

January 17, 2003

US-Iraq War

1. Washington's Timeline

Although difficulties continue to pile up, President George W. Bush has lost patience with the delays in launching America's full-scale war against Iraq.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington sources report he is determined to go forward, come what may - and soon - even if some allies drop out and war plans have to be revised.

Saturday, January 11, our sources report that the US President and Saudi crown prince Abdullah had a secret telephone conversation on Iraq and the situation in the Arab world in the light of the approaching war. At the end of the conversation, Abdullah made a personal request for a short period of grace for intense lobbying that might somehow obviate the need for war.

Bush said he was not optimistic but granted the Saudi crown prince the extra time, giving his word not to launch military action before February 15, the day after the Little Pilgrimage (Umrah) to Mecca. This is the reason for the postponement of the Blair visit to the White House to January 31.

That is the last extension Bush is prepared to allow - even though America's two key allies threaten to drop out -Turkey is stalling and, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly discovered this week, Jordan has quietly developed cold feet.

Ankara allowed a 150-man Pentagon team to inspect bases this week, but is still withholding permission for the US invasion force to use Turkey as a staging base to invade Iraq from the north.

Jordan's king Abdullah has not yet approved the large-scale landing of Marines to open the Western front of the war.

This means that the Northern and Western warfronts are in disarray. If the Americans are only able to invade from the south, the nature of the war will differ from its planning, and become a slower, staged and rolling operation.

The overriding concern of the Turks and Jordanian king, in addition to the wish for a better bargain, is the nuclear threat from al Qaeda which has assumed the role of Saddam's proxy against the US and its allies. Nuclear references abound in Islamic fundamentalist publications and chatter of the last few days. No one knows what types of nuclear weapon are involved, but the allies want to hear from Washington what will happen to them in case of nuclear attack - be it dirty bomb or something more sophisticated.

Nonetheless, the White House intends adhering to its current timeline for opening the assault on Iraq. This timeline currently ranges from January 20 to February 15.

On January 27, chief UN arms inspector Hans Blix makes his report to the Security Council

On January 28, Bush addresses the nation. Israeli election takes place.

If the assault has not been launched by then, the President will use his speech to declare his intentions.

Alternatively, Tommy Franks will be told the attack must go forward by mid-February - no later.

Our sources stress that there is no guarantee that this time-span will not change again under the impact of far-reaching events. Say, if Saddam makes a direct move or the terrorists carry out a mega-hit.

2. Saddam's Timeline

There is a widespread assumption in Washington that Iraq paid the North Korean ruler Kim Jong-Il good money to raise a furor over his nuclear arms program so as to divide the Bush administration's single-minded concentration on the war against Baghdad and buy time for Saddam Hussein. However, that assumption may only cover a part of the ploy. According to some of DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources, Kim received much larger cash pledges from his Middle East clients - and not only Iraq - for the future sale of complete nuclear bombs.

The situation was best summed up in an article by Dennis Ross in the Washington Post of last Friday, January 10:

"Does that argue for the administration's approach of isolation and containment of North Korea? It might, if the North Koreans were two or three years away from being able to produce a half-dozen nuclear devices. But it's more likely that they are only six months away, and that is not sufficient time for the effects of isolation and containment to work on Kim Jong Il. The price to North Korea in six months will not be appreciably different from what it is today. In six months, North Korea will be in a position to sell a nuclear device, and its record to date demonstrates unmistakably that it will sell anything to anybody at any time."

To this comment, DEBKA-Net-Weekly adds from its intelligence sources:

Kim already has six nuclear devices, but to keep his brinkmanship tactics afloat he needs them at home in his keeping.

In another six months, he can build six more devices for sale. So if Kim gets six months' grace - and Saddam is also allowed to buy six months - the entire Arab Middle East will be given the time to acquire advanced nuclear weapons.


Allies Drop out

Jordan Stalls, Follows Turkey

Two of America's three designated warfronts against Iraq are buckling. However, they may not be a total loss. The new February 15 timeline leaves all the parties space to indulge in gainful maneuvers and still climb back on the US war wagon at the end of the day.

Turkey was the first defector. This week, Jordan followed.

Ankara raised the stakes Thursday, January 16, by calling a regional summit to discuss ways of preventing the American war against Iraq, inviting Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia to attend.

The Jordanian setback caught United States war planners still shuffling the board round under the shock of Turkey's refusal to let US forces use its bases and territory for the leap into Iraq from the north (as DEBKA-Net-Weekly 92 first revealed on 10 January 2003). They discovered that the second staunch American partner, Jordan's King Abdullah, had developed cold feet. The monarch suddenly called off the deployment of Marines in Jordanian bases, just as American military planners were frantically mapping out new plans for re-routing entire armored divisions, squadrons of warplanes and fleets of ships, which had been on the point of shipping out to Turkey from their home bases.

Two of the three designated US invasion fronts against Iraq were on the point of folding. The two defections - if sustained - leave US war commander General Tommy Franks with one last invasion front: the south. US ground assault can only come now from Kuwait and Qatar bases plus a Marine landing from vessels of the US naval armada piling up in the Persian Gulf.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources and experts expect the United States to partly offset the loss of Turkish bases by a general mobilization of Kurdish militias in northern Iraq - some 50,000 paramilitary fighters. They are no substitute for the estimated 70,000 Turkish troops supposed to have fought alongside US soldiers, but they are up to the task of commandeering northern Iraqi oilfields - with the help of US special forces present in Kurdish command centers and air cover from US aircraft carriers deployed in the eastern and central Mediterranean.

The Kurdish militias cannot be counted on to capture the key northern Iraqi oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. For this mission, the US war command will have to reassign at least one elite 101st Airborne Division contingent especially trained for months for parachuting missions into the Baghdad metropolitan area. The US command will have to make do with only two-thirds of the force originally dedicated to the battle for Baghdad and Saddam Hussein's second seat of government, Tikrit.

If US military planners can successfully redraw their battle plan and allocation of forces in Iraq, some of the harm can be offset..

Nonetheless, unless the king recants, the damage caused by Jordan's withdrawal and the loss of the Western front, as weighed up by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources, is considerable:

A. The strategic Iraqi air bases - especially the H2 and H3 complexes, which defend the central Iraqi region around Baghdad and Tikrit - will be left in Iraqi hands. The US originally planned to drop American airborne forces on those bases or nearby and wrest control of their facilities with the help of Jordanian special and rapid deployment troops. This plan will have to abandoned, leaving Iraqi troops assigned to defending this sector against the raiding force free to head south and, from the west, harass American tank columns as they advance, or else race to the aid of the Iraqi defenders of Baghdad.

B. Nothing much will stand in the way of Saddam Hussein launching his 60 to 80 al-Hussein surface-to-surface missiles, most of which are hidden in western Iraq, against the advancing American columns or against Israel. The Al Hussein, an improved version of the Scud missile (32 of which wrought heavy damage in the Tel Aviv area in 1991), has a range of about 800 km (500 miles).

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military experts warn that, should Jordan persist in staying out of the conflict - and western Iraq is consequently left in Saddam's hands - this could tilt the military balance in Iraq's favor and trigger the kinds of radical military developments that US President George W. Bush has been at pains to avert for nearly two years.

These developments are linked to another of Jordan's actions, revealed here for the first time by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources.

Jordan Fears Palestinian Flooding

Abdullah has secretly informed Israel via Washington that he is barring Israeli special forces from mounting operations against Iraq from Jordanian territory or transiting the kingdom on their way to western Iraq.

This ban pulls down an edifice constructed by US, Jordanian and Israeli special forces in almost a year of clandestine military action in western Iraq. As our military intelligence sources have frequently reported, their mission was to ferret out Iraqi surface missiles and launchers and mobile weapons of mass destruction. These forces also combed the region for undercover Iraqi commando units manning the systems or trained to steal across the Jordanian and Saudi borders for terrorist attacks against American targets in the Middle East and the Gulf, including oil fields, as well as Israeli targets.

Select US special forces remain in-theater, operating out of US bases built strung along the Jordanian-Iraq border over the past year. But these relatively small American contingents relied heavily on Jordanian and Israeli special forces for backup. Provided only with sporadic aid from US Marine attack and reconnaissance aircraft, they also counted on the Israeli and Jordanian air forces for air cover.

Jordan's ban on American and Israeli over-flights has put paid to this arrangement, with immediate effect.

On Wednesday, January 15, Israel and the United States began a large-scale air defense exercise encompassing the central and eastern Mediterranean, Egypt's Sinai desert and the Red Sea. Air defense teams are testing advanced interception systems designed to shoot down incoming missiles or planes capable of carrying nuclear, biological or chemical payloads. Numerous US military units, including specialists operating batteries of upgraded Patriot missiles, arrived in Israel over the past two weeks and will remain for the duration of the coming conflict, helping to man air defense stations.

At the last minute, the Turkish and Jordanian air forces announced their non-participation in the exercise. DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources report that hours into the drills, US and Israeli commanders were still uninformed about whether or not they had permission to fly over Jordan. Abdullah did not respond to American and Israeli inquiries.

A continuing Jordanian flyover ban could give Saddam dangerous ideas. When the war begins, he might use the vacuum to launch missiles from western Iraq or send planes armed with non-conventional weapons streaking toward the Jewish state. DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources estimate that Israel and the United States will respect Jordan's prohibition during the current exercise but, once real hostilities flare, they will have to access Jordan's air space - even over Abdullah's objections. Should Israel be hit by any Iraqi weapon of mass destruction, royal anger will be no bar to heavy Israeli ground force units rolling through the Hashemite kingdom to reach western Iraq and scotch any further threats.

Abdullah's reasons for slapping restrictions on US and Israeli troop movements are complex:

1.
He recently joined the Saudi - i.e. Arab - initiative for averting a US attack on Iraq.

2.
Like his fellow Sunni Arab rulers, the Jordanian king dislikes the Bush administration's conception of the post-war government in Baghdad. He was bowled over by Washington's espousal of Jalal Talabani, leader of Iraq's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, as candidate for prime minister of the new Iraq

3.
Abdullah feels he was not treated with proper respect by President Bush's special adviser on Iraqi affairs, Zalmy Khalil-Zad. He is also aggrieved at not being awarded his due in US aid as a pivotal ally in the coming war.

4.
Abdullah has a long list of grievances against Israel, some of which he conveyed to Washington in the hope of pressure on Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon to respond. Sharon turned these complaints aside.

5.
The king demands Israeli assurances on the Palestinian issue - in particular, a pledge from Sharon to station units on the border once war with Iraq begins in order to forcibly hold back Palestinians trying to cross from the West Bank into Jordan. Abdullah expects that hundreds of thousands of West Bank and Gazan Palestinians, fearing the effects of Iraqi chemical or biological attacks on Israel, will attempt to hurl themselves across the border into Jordan, since the Palestinian Authority has prepared neither gas masks nor antidotes for the population.
The king and his advisers are afraid that Sharon may take advantage of the crisis and open the door to let the mass-flight of Palestinians through, effectively de-populating Palestinian cities.

In addition to domestic and foreign concerns, both Turkey and Jordan have what they believe to be another good reason for retreating from involvement in a US war against Iraq: Iraqi or al Qaeda nuclear retaliation.


Combating Seaborne Terror

Cargoes Big Brothered before They Reach US Shores

Call it a security nightmare.

Fifteen million containers arrive in the United States each year on vessels from around the world. Before the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington, only two percent of those containers were screened by US Customs. That rate has improved somewhat, US customs authorities, say, but not by much.

All that is about to change: On February 2, the US Customs Service will begin enforcing its ambitious 24-Hour Advance Manifest Rule designed to keep terrorists and their deadly cargo away from American shores.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's maritime sources have procured the new bible of guidelines for the US customs officer.

Under the new system, an ocean carrier's manifest declarations will have to be submitted to US Customs either electronically or in paper form 24 hours prior to cargo lading of the vessel at a foreign port of origin.

All ocean cargo destined for the United States will be subject to the new regulations, including Foreign Cargo Remaining On Board (FROB) -- foreign-to-foreign cargo which transits through a United States port, including Puerto Rico -- U.S. military cargo and cargo aboard short-hauls or voyages.

In effect, US Customs will be able to know in advance the manufacturer, contents, size and weight of each shipment packed inside a container as well as the name of the receiving party.

The new rule is one of a series of security measures devised by US Customs commissioner Richard C. Bonner, a retired judge and former senior official in the US Drug Enforcement Administration.

Bonner, who became customs commissioner just days before 9/11, grasped at once the changed role of US Customs. Overnight, the body had been catapulted to the forefront of national security for US citizens. Bonner held it was the duty of US Customs to keep the maritime terrorist threat at bay by means of novel arrangements for stringent cargo checks in foreign ports of origin, far from US shores.

As Bonner put it, "The border must be pushed outwards."

At a hearing on security at US seaports held by the US senate committee on commerce, science and transportation last year, Bonner dramatized the threat of terrorists smuggling weapons of mass destruction into the United States in innocent- looking containers.

At the same hearing, held in Charleston, South Carolina, Bonner offered the first official US confirmation of the innovative al Qaeda smuggling tactic uncovered exclusively by DEBKAfile a year ago.

"Unfortunately," he testified, "ocean-going cargo containers are susceptible to terrorist threat. You may recall the discovery by Italian authorities last October of a suspected al Qaeda operative, an Egyptian national, living inside a sea container. He was headed to the Canadian port of Halifax, with airport maps, security bridges and an airport mechanic's credentials."

US Customs is also pushing another initiative -- the Customs-Trade Partnership against Terrorism, or C-TPAT. A cooperative endeavor with the overseas supplies and shipping community, C-TPAT aims to step up security throughout the global supply chain.

Participants sign an agreement that commits them to conduct a comprehensive self-assessment of supply chain security that encompasses the shipper, its office premises and employees, the carriers, suppliers and end-customers.

Voluntary - But Don't Say No

The initiative was billed as voluntary, but, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly's maritime sources report, firms doing business with US ports soon discovered that failure to sign up condemned their goods and carriers to the slow lane of Customs inspections.

Since C-TPAT was introduced in April 2002, more than 1,000 businesses have signed up, effectively creating a new international security standard. In addition, US authorities have announced a Customs Container Security Initiative (CSI) - a security databank for identifying and locating suspicious containers and pre-screening them before they arrive in the United States. CSI is designed to prevent the smuggling of terrorists or terrorist weapons in ocean-going cargo containers.

Launched by U.S. Customs in January 2002, CSI consists of four core elements: using automated information to identify and target high-risk containers, pre-screening those containers identified as high-risk before they arrive at U.S. ports, using detection technology to quickly pre-screen high-risk containers and using smarter, tamper-proof containers.

The initial objective is to implement CSI at the 20 key ports that send large volumes of cargo containers into the United States, in a way that will facilitate detection of potential security concerns at the earliest possible opportunity.

One element of CSI involves placing U.S. Customs inspectors at foreign seaports to target and pre-screen U.S.-bound cargo containers.

The first-line ports that have already joined CSI are: Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, Kaohsiung in Taiwan, Rotterdam, Tokyo, Genoa, Yantian in China, Felixstowe in England, Algeciras in Spain, Kobe in Japan, Yokohama, and Laem Chabang in Thailand.

Eventually, cumbersome inspections at non-CSI ports will make shipping to the United States economically unfeasible.

US Customs is also introducing sophisticated computerized systems to handle the massive and continuous influx of imports-related data into the United States.

The Automated Manifest System, or AMS, will be the backbone of the 24-Hour Rule initiative. It will enable cargos to be channeled into the United States according to advance manifests.

The Advance Passenger Information System (APIS) should give US Customs details about each passenger arriving by air before a flight takes off for the United States from an overseas airport.

The Automated Commercial Environment system, enthusiastically backed by Bonner, is a sort of Big Brother. Scheduled to go on-line in 2006, it will enable the almost complete monitoring of every piece of cargo destined for the United States before it arrives at US shores.

In a survey conducted by The Journal of Commerce On Line, 62 percent of respondents said that enforcing the 24-hour rule will slow up commerce in the United States. US Customs, however, believes that, with shippers' cooperation, security and the flow of goods into the United States will improve.


Iran & Syria

At Loggerheads over Iraq and Hizballah

His bags were packed but Syrian president Bashar Assad decided to stay home.

After a week talking to his visitor, Jalal Talabani, leader of the northern Iraq-based Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the Syrian leader dropped his plan to travel to Iran for a discussion on how best to help Iraqi president Saddam Hussein head off an American invasion.

Assad's no-show in Teheran acutely embarrassed the Islamic Republic, at a time when its supreme spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, was escalating his verbal attacks on the Great Satan. However, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources, Assad was furious when he learned from the Kurdish leader, who visited Tehran himself last week, that Iran's leaders were deeply engaged in covert negotiations with the United States on ways of helping the US war against Iraq by logistical and other support. Talabani confided to the Syrian ruler that he and other emissaries had carried secret Iranian messages to Washington detailing the scale and form of the aid on offer from Tehran - and Iran's expectations from Washington as remuneration.

One subject of those missives was the machinery for keeping Iran-US collaboration dark.

Hojjatoleslam Hassan Rouhani, secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, confirmed Talabani's tale. In the first such policy comments by a senior Iranian official, Rouhani told visiting Finnish foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja on Tuesday, January 14 - one day before Assad was due in Tehran - that his government would support American military action to eliminate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction arsenal, but not the Saddam government's removal.

Rouhani added that Iran would cooperate with the United States operation only if it was sanctioned by a United Nations resolution.

During his extended stay in Damascus, Talabani also told his Syrian hosts that he had delivered a message from Washington to Tehran offering a US non-aggression commitment to Iran in return for an Iranian pledge not to interfere in American action - except for certain types of logistical support. The Bush government also promised to tone down its anti-Iran rhetoric.

The theocrats of Tehran are concerned by the around-the-clock broadcasts of US-run Radio Farda, which is expected soon to start satellite transmissions, as well as by 145 Congressmen's signatures on a declaration of support for their most dangerous foe, the Iranian guerilla group Mujahideen a-Khalq.

Talabani's disclosures showed Assad he had been outmaneuvered. He had intended to discuss with Iranian officials tactics for warding off the American offensive against Iraq and logistical help for Saddam Hussein. Now there was no point.

When Iran's security services discovered the Kurdish leader had blown the whistle to the Syrians, the Iranian ambassador to Damascus, Hossein Sheikh-ol-Eslam, summoned him for a dressing-down. But the cat was out of the bag. Early Wednesday, January 15, Syria informed the presidential office in Teheran that Assad's visit the same day was off.

According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Tehran, the Syrian ruler had been urging both Iran and Saudi Arabia to halt oil exports via the Persian Gulf as a means of deterring the United States from going to war against Iraq. Both turned him down flat - Saudi Arabia was bound by its traditional policy, while Iran made it clear that its near-bankrupt economy could little afford to forego oil revenues. Moreover, officials in Tehran explained that upsetting the flow of Gulf oil would undermine their efforts to rally regional and Arab support behind Iran in case of an Israeli attack on the Bushehr atomic reactor and the underground nuclear facilities under construction at Natanz and Arak.

Divided over Hizballah tactics

Syria and Iran are equally at odds over the guidelines for their shared prot&Mac218;g&Mac218;, the Lebanese terrorist group, Hizballah, in the light of the approaching American war against Iraq. Reporting this, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Middle East sources recall that until recently, Iran egged Syria on to allow the Shiite terrorists to heat up the Lebanese-Israel border in order to hamper the US effort. But since Iran came to terms with Washington, Syria is the one urging the Hizballah to escalate border violence, while Iran wants calm to demonstrate it is serious about its accords with the Americans.

Consequently, the Hizballah has of late, under instructions from Tehran, made do with routine anti-aircraft fire against Israeli planes and positions, which never hit anything much. Even Israeli defense minister Shaul Mofaz remarked Tuesday, January 14, that the Shiite terrorists seem to have lost interest in a flare-up.

Iran is also building an independent power base in Lebanon, divorced from reliance on Damascus's good will. Mega-bucks are being sunk into the construction of a network of bunkers, arms dumps and hideouts. Supplies of ammunition, new weapons and additional Zelzal missiles are pouring into Lebanon, kept firmly in the grip of Iranian Revolutionary Guards to ensure their prudent use in Iran's interest.

Iran's hope for a vested interest in post-Saddam Iraq is at the bottom of its willingness to cooperate with the United States. By backing the American offensive, the ayatollahs hope to improve their standing among Iraqi opposition factions and position themselves to pull strings in the future government in Baghdad.

Talabani and his former rival Massoud Barazani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, have held several separate exchanges in Tehran in the last few weeks with Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer Hakim, head of the opposition Iraqi Supreme Revolutionary Council. Both promised Iraqi Shiites would be awarded a larger role in a future Baghdad administration than the Sunni leader Ahmed Chalabi, who lacks an army and counts for less in Iraq than in Washington and Europe.

But the Kurds and Shiites have yet to work out the minutiae of power-sharing and are likely to butt heads in the future.

In an early sign of acrimony, a power-sharing conference due to have been held in the northern Iraqi town of Irbil on January 15 was deferred - and not for the first time. The Kurdish organizers explained that 75 of the participants had not been allowed to enter northern Iraq through Turkey, yet another symptom of the siege Turkey imposed on Kurdistan two weeks ago.


DEBKA-Net-Weekly Exclusive Interview

Saddam's Shark Pool, Described by his former Bodyguard

Han Blix, chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq, has not turned up any Iraqi scientists or civilians to interview outside the country's borders. In his latest report to the United Nations Security Council, Blix reported his inspectors had found no "smoking gun" to prove Iraq's possession of prohibited weapons and demanded more US intelligence data to help him in his search.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly, however, did locate a highly knowledgeable defector from Saddam Hussein's immediate circle - one, moreover, willing to talk. His name - or more precisely one of his many aliases - is Jassem Abdullah. He managed to escape from Baghdad four months ago.

Jassem, it turns out, served on Saddam's bodyguard detail, one of an elite trusted group of no more than five to six security men sworn to defend the Iraqi leader with their lives.

We met him in Amman this week, looking pale and with black rings under his eyes. Jassem runs in fear of his life. Yet, through intermediaries, the escaped bodyguard agreed to talk to DEBKA-Net-Weekly in a hotel suite rented for him in one the Jordanian capital's most luxurious hotels. Jassem chose the hotel for the interview because it has become a sort of demilitarized zone. Saddam's sister had just checked in. She had come to Amman for medical treatment accompanied by an entourage and bodyguards, while another wing of the hotel houses US Marine officers.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence experts who went over the transcript of the interview portrayed Jassem as a typical Middle East VIP bodyguard, essentially a simple man who, for the most part, told the truth. Content that our experts found to be inaccurate has been expunged.

This is the gist of his comments:

The Iraqi Republican Guard is a myth. Saddam's real protectors are a force called the Special Guard. His bodyguard in chief is called Hamdi Hamouda, who is the only man in Iraq who knows everything. The floors of Saddam's main palace, the Sixth Force Palace in Tikrit, and the paths of its outer courts are made of glass. Underneath, sharks and tropical fish swim in a giant artificial lake, giving visitors the illusion of moving over the surface of a heaving ocean teeming with marine life. Saddam's weapons of mass destruction are concealed in two places: a tunnel complex under the main streets of Baghdad and the sand dunes in Ouja, near Tikrit. At Ouja, they are stocked in mobile bunkers. They can be buried deeper under the sand at the flick of a remote control. Jassem said he had been told the bunkers in the sand were built by American engineers but he did not know if this was true.

Following are excerpts from the interview:

How did you become Saddam's bodyguard?

I belonged to the special forces and was a sentry at the gate to Saddam's palace. Late one night, Saddam arrived in a 10-car convoy. I checked all the vehicles and Saddam stepped out of one and asked me why I inspected them all and not just his. I told him I wasn't sure in which car he was traveling and that it was in his honor that I checked all the vehicles. He replied: "From now on, you will be inside with me and be my chief bodyguard." He also doubled my salary.

What did your job entail?

I was on probation for 15 months, secretly watched by hidden cameras. They also collected as much information about me as possible, even what I like to eat and drink and the kind of exercises I do. They talked to everyone around me. Finally, they brought me a document to sign and said that if I divulged any information to an outsider, I would be killed. That is what the paper said.

Did you serve in the Republican Guard?

The Republican Guard is just propaganda. The Special Guard is the name of the force closest to Saddam. They have different vehicles. The cars used by the Republican Guard are not the same as the ones assigned to the Special Guard. Some of the vehicles seen in Baghdad flying so-called Republican Guard flags really belong to the Special Guard. The Special Guard is concerned only with Saddam Hussein's person. The Republican Guard was important during the war with Iran, but not now. The Special Guard is called that because Îspecial' is what it is. It gets the best food and equipment and serves only Saddam. It has the best intelligence. I was inside the innermost circle, where Saddam eats and sleeps. I was among the four or five bodyguards closest to him. I did not smoke, and was in good physical condition. That is why I was picked to be in that group.

How were you chosen?

A year and a half after I was moved from the gate to the inner quarters, they were still investigating me. Even when I went on holiday, they continued to follow me and ask me questions. They even questioned my family. During that period, I was inside the palace but not actually close to Saddam. I enlisted on April 5, 1995. I remember the date because it was my birthday. After I enlisted, I was stationed at the Palace of Conferences - Qesser Al-Mu'tamarat - in Baghdad and then moved to the main palace, Qesser al-Quwwa Sitta'shar - the Sixth Force Palace, in Tikrit, the most important one. There, I was given jobs in intelligence-gathering and inspecting cars. The only people allowed to anywhere near this palace were Saddam's nearest and dearest. Those who entered were people like his son Qusay and his permanent companions, like Hamdi Hamouda, his chief bodyguard who never moves from his side. All the rest spoke to Saddam from a distance over a special telephone line, and never got to see him in person. People had codes, such as one, two, three, and photographs were posted of the people allowed inside and the ones who could only reach Saddam by telephone. The palace is outside Tikrit and it has an underground entrance. The floor and the paths of the entranceway are made of glass and you can see sharks and all sorts of fish. It is like an ocean. It cost billions.

How tight is security around the Iraqi leader? What is to prevent people from harming him?

The palace has four entrances. People with the highest security ratings come in through one entrance. There are small cameras everywhere - secret cameras that no one can see. It is a very complex and sophisticated system comprised of electronic doors and special cars. For instance, if someone attacks from one gate, Saddam can leave by another. He has a car waiting at each escape route. No one knows if he is in one palace or another. He is accompanied only by his chief bodyguard. On several occasions, attempts were made on his life and he managed to escape with his bodyguard.

It is not simple. Cars wait for him in several places. He tells one driver to wait for him at one gate, but he leaves by another. He instructs another driver to wait for him at another gate, and never shows up. Even after he has left in one car, he will drive in one direction and then he'll switch vehicles. There have been times when he has switched cars after moving only 10 meters, even when he was accompanied only by members of his closest circle. There is no way to assassinate him. Behind one secret door lie four more secret doors. He'll say he's leaving through door number two, but he really exits through door number four. Then he'll come back in through door number six and leave again through door number one. He uses 15 to 20 different cars to leave the palace.

When a camera malfunctions, other layers of camera are activated. The first layer is outside; the second inside and the third is at ground zero, Saddam's location. He built the system after Uday was hit by 60 bullets in an assassination attempt but lived. Saddam panicked and began to build the system. The innermost ring of cameras has special remote control equipment and only Saddam's closest guards use it.

There was a time when he went hunting. Preparations took two hours. I saw him hiding weapons about his person. One pistol went up his sleeve. There were also remote control devices inside his clothes and close to his skin.

Did you ever have an opportunity to speak with him?

I spoke to him only once in three years. I had a personal interview with him that took three quarters of an hour. I asked for the meeting. He asked for my file. He examined it and saw that I was a good soldier - I'm sure of that. I shook his hand, and there was a space of about a meter between us. He asked me where I lived in Baghdad and about my family. I wanted my family to have a home, because they did not have an apartment. He signed a paper and within three days I received an apartment. He told me: "You are young - how did you achieve such a position?" I reminded him of our first encounter. He was a generous man. Everyone in the Special Guard received an apartment after a year's service. But my family's situation was pressing. I had an apartment, but the problem was my family. He also asked about my own apartment and what brought me to the Special Guard.

Did he joke?

He was always serious and punctual. When he told jokes, it was a sign that he was angry - and then it was best to keep your distance.

What jokes did he tell?

If he was watching television and someone approached him and said, "I saw you in Basra yesterday while you were swimming," Saddam would reply: "How was I? Frightening? Were people scared of me?" He wanted to get a message across by telling the joke. He wanted to say through his jokes that he was a no-nonsense president and he liked people to think of him in that way.

Do you have the document that Saddam signed?

It's in Baghdad. I can bring it in a week along with pictures that show how close I was to him. Those are pictures I got from him. I'll give them to you. Because of my position, I could go anywhere in Iraq and no one would ask any questions. I used cars marked with his seal. I could get into any palace; few people could. I was very proud that my president treated me that way.

Why did you leave?

There was a rule that anyone who gave false information would be punished. People I knew were indeed punished. They were Mukhabarat. My whole family was in the security services. One relative was in military intelligence, but they took me to be interrogated and beat me severely nonetheless - although my whole family served in the security services. And I was put in jail. I was beaten with a metal club. They accused me of passing information and told me that because I signed a document, I had to be executed. They showed me the paper I signed. I told them I had not passed any information. Someone betrayed me. They were very violent.

Does Saddam have doubles?

I've never heard of it, nor have I met any. No one in Iraq resembles Saddam. He has his own special look. There are people who wear Saddam masks - those who make speeches about the Palestinian problem. That's not normal. Do you really believe that Saddam would stand on his feet from eight in the morning until eight at night and fire shots in the air during a pro-Palestinian demonstration? It's clear that's not Saddam.

They took my house away from me. Forty-four days after my service ended, they threw me out of the house. I was left with nothing. A friend of mine advised me to leave the country. He told me there was nothing more for me here. "They will kill you," he said. Friends provided me with a passport and a new name.

Saddam meant everything to me. I loved him and would have protected him at any cost. Now things have completely changed. I hate him. I want to kill him. I want to return to the palaces in Baghdad and Tikrit because I know all the entrances. I don't care.

I am still confused. I am very ashamed. One night, between two and three in the morning, I heard something move. I am left-handed and I fired my Kalashnikov. It was a deer near one of Saddam's bedrooms. Afterwards, they activated four camera systems in four palaces. Can you imagine? There is a four-way backup, with each palace backing up the next. They found the deer had not been killed, and they told me, "You failed. What if the deer had been an assassin? You must die." All of the computer systems showed shots were fired in the first security layer, and I was in the inner one. They couldn't understand it. But according to the cameras, they found the wounded deer in the first layer, and they didn't trust me. It was as if I had left my post. As a result, they interrogated me again and searched my house. But it worked out in the end, and Saddam sent me an autographed rifle.

When did you come to Amman?

Three months ago.

Are you working?

I am strung out, in a panic. They can kill me, even here. I do not know what's happening with my family. I cannot hold down a job; I have to be on the move constantly.

You said you want to help the Americans? Have you met with them?

That's what was on my mind from the moment I arrived in Amman. But I am scared of their Mukhabarat. I know everything: where the weapons are; and I know where he's brought the weapons he seized in Kuwait. I know where the depots are, in the north, south and center.

Where are the weapons of mass destruction?

In the desert. It is a vast expanse, and they have cameras·the minute someone approaches, such as UN personnel, they move to another place. Tikrit is closest to the site. Weapons are also located in Baghdad.

There's a place called Ouja, near Tikrit. It's a peninsula of sand dunes. I saw with my own eyes bunkers that move from place to place inside the dunes, underground. It is simply unbelievable. It is done by remote control.

Twenty-five people went there in 1994. We were told they were Americans, but the truth is we really didn't know who they were. They were there for four years, until 1998. In early 1991, they worked there and build weapons of mass destruction. But I don't know what's exactly there now. No one saw them. They came by car, with maps. It was strange, because we thought sanctions were in place, but they came and built the complex. Immediately afterwards, they brought the bombs and weapons systems. They built a ceiling and put chemical and biological weapons inside. The Russians followed, and there were Chinese inside. The Russians tested the strength of the structure. They fired at it and set off explosions. But nothing happened to the Chinese inside. They did not die. I saw the Chinese leave the complex one by one and in one piece.

There's another site in Baghdad; someone very close to Saddam told me. He was drunk at the time. I brought my father along - we were invited to a function - and he told me that there is nothing inside the palaces; they do not contain weapons of mass destruction. There is a more important place, he said - Baghdad, not the palaces. Saddam built an entire area under the city's main streets, and that's where the weapons are. If they show me satellite photos, I can tell them what their first and second priorities should be. I know there's a third site, at Hawala, in Tikrit. I can steer them toward possible hiding places. They move from place to place. They should look in the Hawala area in Tikrit. If they show me pictures, I'll show them where to go.


HOT POINTS
(that you may have missed in DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock)
A Digest of the Week's Exclusives

13 January: The Turkish government is bargaining on two levels.

DEBKAfile's sources in the Persian Gulf reveal that the question the Turkish prime minister privately posed Arab leaders, including Saddam Hussein, was this: Was Turkey's unwavering resistance to Washington's demands worth a comparable level of aid to that pledged by the US for taking part in the war, namely $4-6 billion? The Turkish prime minister topped his question up by asking for a further $4-5 billion, to be allocated over the next two to three years.

According to our Gulf sources, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in principle to put up or guarantee the money. Saddam's reply is unknown.

However, at the same time, Turkish emissaries sat down in Washington to bargain with the Americans. DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that the US side was led by Marc Grossman, Number Three in the State Department and ambassador to Turkey from 1994-1997, and Daniel Fried, head of the European and Asian-European Desks in the White House's National Security Council. The Gul government was represented by its Washington ambassador, Faruk Logoglu, backed up by members of the Turkish government and general staff sent over for the negotiations.

The US side argued that handing Kirkuk and Mosul over to Turkish control would be tantamount to Iraq's dismemberment, when only a short while ago America pledged Iraq's territorial integrity in response to a sine qua non from Ankara. Turkey's repudiation of that condition would free Washington's hands for redrawing Iraq's external and internal boundaries without needing Ankara's approval. Moreover, Ankara jeopardized its chances of getting through Congress the economic aid package it has requested to compensate for potential economic losses estimated at $4-15 billion.

The standoff remains in force with regard to the North Korean nuclear dispute.

DEBKAfile's experts report that increasing signs point to North Korea's saber-rattling coming out of a back alley in the Turkish Bazaar.

In mid-October 2002, DEBKA-Net-Weekly and DEBKAfile first exposed North Korea's nuclear weapons program's strong bonds to the Middle East. We also reported that Pyongyang had long since shifted major parts of its weapons production and nuclear enrichment processing from Yongbyon to secret sites in Iran and Libya. More than 400 Iraqi nuclear scientists and technicians were found by our sources to be employed in Libya's underground complex at al Kufra Oasis, where costs are covered mainly by Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Monday, January 13, US assistant secretary of state James Kelly offered North Korea American energy and investment for scrapping its nuclear weapons program. However, even acceptance by the North of that offer would be if limited value; the program would simply go on undisturbed in the Middle East.

DEBKAfile's Gulf sources disclose the view current in circles close to the Saudi throne and Gulf Emirs that, just as the Iraqi ruler pledged Turkey generous largesse for hopping off the American war wagon, he also promised Kim Jong-Il a hefty aid package plus oil for opening an Asian front to sabotage Washington's war initiative. A number of other Gulf oil producers have also offered to compensate North Korea for America, Japanese and South Korean energy stoppages.

The obstructionist moves by Turkey and North Korea led Saudi crown prince Abdullah to predict on Saturday, January 12, that the US war against Iraq would not take off. The Bush administration meanwhile finds itself engaged heavily in dealing with trip-wires and hurdles instead of getting the war started.

14 January: The Palestinian paper admits that the full text of the Suleiman ceasefire document presented to the London conference held on January 14 was kept dark for fear it will break up the inter-Palestinian dialogue in Cairo. Arafat is said to have approved, but not adopted it. None of the groups said to endorse it are named. Arafat's ceasefire is therefore an obvious smoke and mirrors exercise.

Arafat is described by DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources as being fully absorbed in arranging the funding and deployment of new weapons, tricks, ruses and devices for the coming cycle of terrorist operations that bank heavily on the effectiveness of· a toy: Model planes packed with explosives and operated by remote control.

Last month, Palestinian toy importers in Jerusalem and Ramallah ordered hundreds of these toys for distribution to Palestinian children in hospitals. Subsidies from European Union member-governments could legitimately be allocated to this humanitarian purpose.

According to our sources, not a single toy reached an injured Palestinian child.

The model planes were converted in Palestinian workshops into miniature air bombers with explosive payloads. Tanzim militiamen from Arafat's Fatah, who tested the flying bombs, discovered they could fly to a distance of 1 kilometer and an altitude of 300 meters. To guide the plane to target inside an Israeli built-up area when it was no longer visible to the remote control holder, he was enabled to cut out the engine from afar, allowing it to drop on target and blow up.

Contrary to reports that Arafat has withdrawn from the day-to-day management of Palestinian terrorist operations, DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources emphasize that the results of the model plane conversion tests were brought before him. Delighted with its performance, he ordered the new weapon to be used in the coming days in Jerusalem.

He chose Jerusalem, calculating that it would be some time before Israeli security and intelligence authorities caught on to and learned how to intercept the new mini-weapon whizzing around the city before it blew up. The deadly toy is easily launched from Arab Jerusalem. Its flying time is estimated at no more than 2-3 minutes.

The Palestinian terror master sought new devices because of the difficulties hampering the penetration of Israeli cities by his operatives in view of stepped up Israeli security, travel restrictions and Israeli intelligence agents planted in their ranks. Suicide bombers are deterred to a certain extent by the knowledge that their family homes will be demolished.

In addition to the mini-bombers, the Palestinians are trying out home-made rockets with a range of 15-20km, multiple rocket launchers and exploding cigarettes. They may also resort to kidnapping former senior military officers, who as civilians are not guarded, to ransom Palestinian captives. Palestinian gunners will be trained to fire heavy machine guns from moving vehicles against low-flying airplanes or helicopters coming in to land.

All these projects have met with Arafat's approval. They were authorized separately from the mega-terror campaign promised by the Lebanese Hizballah and al Qaeda.

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