Toppled Statue May Give Kim Jong-Il Pause for Thought

April 10, 2003
By Jane Macartney, Asia Diplomatic Correspondent

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A U.S. armored vehicle felling a statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad must have sent shivers down the spines of other world leaders with extravagant personality cults -- none more so than North Korea's Kim Jong-il.  

Not only is his country lumped with Iraq and Iran in U.S. President George Bush's "axis of evil," but the countless statues of Kim's late father towering over his isolated land are potent symbols of one of the world's last totalitarian governments.

But the reclusive younger Kim must take heart from signals emerging among his neighbors, and Washington, that no one yet wishes to bulldoze those icons of his power, the bronze and marble figures of his father Kim Il-sung.

After all, the bouffant-haired leader not only has an arsenal of chemical and biological weapons primed to fire on South Korea, but he also has nuclear ambitions.

North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons program has sparked a crisis with Washington.

Pyongyang must now decide whether to defy the United States by openly joining the nuclear club, or open talks.

"Watching the statues of Saddam ripped out, Kim may be inclined to give negotiations a go," said Alan Dupont, director at the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Australian National University in Canberra.

"It would be a suicide note if he goes down the road of acquiring nuclear weapons."

He added: "We are at a very delicate stage now."

North Korea, known for its bellicose rhetoric, has been almost uncannily quiet since the U.S. invasion of Iraq began.

After kicking out U.N. inspectors, pulling out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in a move that takes formal effect on Thursday, restarting a nuclear power plant and testing a couple of missiles, it has recently stayed its hand.

But it clearly believes it will be next in U.S. sights.

Pyongyang has yet to cross the "red line" of reprocessing its spent, sealed plutonium fuel rods into fissile material for weapons, choosing to watch and wait upon international events.

Taking the nuclear step could be the point of no return and bring down the full weight of U.S. wrath.


STATUES LIKELY TO STAY STANDING

It is not only North Korea that fears seeing U.S. tanks ripping down statues of Great Leader Kim Il-sung among the wide, empty boulevards and Stalinist-style edifices of Pyongyang.

Seoul knows the thousands of North Korean artillery pieces pointed south could rain death and devastation on hundreds of thousands of people. The implosion of Kim's government would place a huge and untenable burden on South Korean resources.

War would cost the lives of large numbers of U.S. troops. And North Korea is no Iraq. It may already have one or two nuclear weapons.

China dreads the birth of a nuclear-armed neighbor, fearing the arms race this could provoke with old foe Japan and current enemy Taiwan. A North Korean collapse would not only send millions of refugees streaming over its border but eliminate a buffer state that now keeps U.S. troops at arm's length.

Russia is an old friend of Pyongyang, although one whose clout has waned rapidly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It may have mixed feelings since it is eager to lay a gas pipeline though the impoverished North to the prosperous South.

"I don't think that North Korea will opt for nuclear weapons," said Lee Jung-hoon, professor of international relations at Seoul's Yonsei University.

"When it does it will put itself in a hole, it will be completely isolated," he said. "I can't imagine China and Russia will be at all understanding, and could well turn against it."

On Wednesday, China and Russia stood almost shoulder to shoulder with Pyongyang.

They refused to give their backing to U.S. pressure on the U.N. Security Council to issue a statement condemning Pyongyang for quitting the NPT and urging it to resume compliance with international measures to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

Watching U.S. forces storm across Iraq will only fuel's Kim's obsession with "regime survival," analysts say.

Dupont said it was possible North Korea would begin reprocessing spent fuel rods.

"The key conclusions that Kim appears to have drawn are that the only effective way to deter military intervention is to acquire nuclear weapons," he said.

"They know biological and chemical weapons are not enough and the only thing that will stop the U.S. is nuclear weapons and as many as possible."

PROVOKING WHAT IT FEARS MOST

That could result in the very scenario Pyongyang most fears.

"The fear and insecurity of the North Koreans has intensified quite dramatically over the last three to four months," Dupont said. "In fearing the worst, they may trigger the last thing they want."

One side may have to lose a little face.

"You have to meet them halfway and I don't see us doing that," said Brad Glosserman of the Pacific Forum CSIS Hawaii-based think tank.

"We are saying roll back and we'll talk. But the North Koreans won't roll back without guarantees. They want status, security and economic aid.

"So either North Korea declares itself a nuclear power or we roll over."

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