Job Seekers Face Worst Market Since Early '90s

June 17, 2003

MILWAUKEE (AP) — Three out of four employers expect to cut jobs or hold off on hiring this summer, contributing to the worst employment market since the early 1990s, a survey out Tuesday says.

About two-thirds of employers said they don't expect to hire any additional workers and 9% plan to eliminate jobs during the July-to-September quarter, according to the survey by Manpower.

"Let's try not to get anyone too depressed, but the facts are the facts," said Jeffrey Joerres, chairman and chief executive of Manpower, which surveys 16,000 businesses for its quarterly survey.

The company collected the most recent data in April during the war in Iraq and the SARS crisis, which analysts say could account for some employer pessimism.

"April has to be one of the worst months in recent history to take an outlook survey," said economist Patrick Anderson, principal of Anderson Economic Group in Lansing, Mich. "We would expect that a war would depress hiring plans."

Although 20% of employers in the survey said they plan to add jobs, competition for work is expected to be high. Six percent are uncertain about their employment plans.

"It's a buyer's market right now if you're an employer," Anderson said. "Some of those who are getting a real shock are those who are emerging from college and don't have strong work skills."

Manpower, which is the nation's largest staffing company, has conducted the survey for 27 years.

Joerres said employers face uncertainty in this downturn because of its duration and multiple fits and starts. By contrast, the "classic" recession during the first Gulf War was followed by a relatively smooth recovery, Joerres said.

"I do think we're in uncharted waters from a labor perspective," he said.

Doug Thomas, operations manager of TemPro Staffing of Green Bay, Wis., called the job outlook for light industrial semiskilled workers, "very, very weak."

"More manufacturing is leaving than coming," Thomas said.

Art Ayre, state employment economist for Oregon, said his state has lost 8,500 manufacturing jobs in the last year, but he is expecting a slight rebound for his state and for the rest of the nation in the third quarter.

"We're still waiting for some indication that we'll achieve stability and then actually gain some growth," Ayre said.

The education and non-durable goods manufacturing sectors are facing the biggest impact, with each group's employment levels for the third quarter the lowest in 20 years, according to the survey.

Education jobs are at their lowest level in 27 years of Manpower data, with more employers expecting to cut jobs than those who are expecting to increase jobs.

Employment estimates across the United States are relatively consistent, with the South reporting slightly stronger hiring expectations and the Northeast expecting the slowest hiring pace for the third consecutive quarter.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2003-06-17-manpower_x.htm