The Korea Crisis

January 6, 2003
by J. R. Nyquist

The Democratic People's Republic of Korean has begun to make threats in the midst of America's military buildup against Saddam Hussein. "The Korean Peninsula is now on the verge of war," warned the DPRK's official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun. The country's communist dictator, Kim Jong Il, is demanding a non-aggression pact with the United States. He also wants the United States to supply his country with food and fuel. His demands have been made with an implied nuclear threat.

Presently North Korea (DPRK) deploys 600 to 750 missiles that can hit Japan and South Korea with nuclear, chemical or conventional warheads. These missiles are hidden in deep bunker complexes. Some are mounted on mobile missile launchers. Finding and destroying this strike force would not be easy. North Korea's massive artillery deployment above the Demilitarized Zone can rain tens of thousands of shells down on the urban heartland of South Korea, turning it into a "sea of flame." North Korea is known to possess huge stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons, nearly 4,000 tanks and an army of 1.1 million men ö the third largest standing army on earth, with reserves of seven million.

In his first State of the Union address, President George W. Bush said that North Korea was part of an "axis of evil." He later told journalist Bob Woodward that he loathed Kim Jong Il. According to Woodward, "I thought he might jump up he became so emotional as he spoke about the North Korean leader." Bush explained his feelings about Kim in the following way: "I've got a visceral reaction to this guy, because he is starving his people. And I have seen these prison camps ö they're huge ö that he uses to break up families, and to torture people."

The president is not going to do business with the North Korean dictatorship. In fact, he wants to apply maximum pressure to isolate and ostracize the Pyongyang regime. A Congressionally mandated commission, under the chairmanship of Roger Robinson, will soon be investigating the sale of Chinese nuclear material to North Korea. It appears that economic pressure may soon be applied to those countries that have enabled North Korea to become a nuclear power that exports nuclear technology to other rogue nations. But China has not been the only enabler of North Korea, which is said to already possess nuclear weapons and has announced plans to build many such weapons despite U.S. objections. In 1991 a U.S. intelligence network inside the "former" Soviet Union run by Keith Adema, an American special operations soldier, discovered that Russian suitcase nuclear weapons were being secretly transferred to North Korea. The United States does not have an exact count of North Korean nuclear assets, but the number could be substantial.

At present the U.S. government insists that no war is being contemplated against the DPRK. America intends to use only economic weapons in an effort to "correct" Pyongyang's attitude. According to Roger Robinson, chairman of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, "There is a burgeoning nuclear crisis unfolding on the Korean Peninsula that demands enhanced export-control vigilance, particularly on the part of Pakistan, China and Russia."

This statement is significant as it lists those countries involved in supporting North Korea's military industries. By applying pressure directly to North Korea's suppliers the United States hopes to choke the North Korean war machine, perhaps incapacitating it. There is also the hope, however fanciful, that the communist regime in Pyongyang will collapse.

Robinson told the Washington Times that China was transferring dual-use "and even proscribed items to North Korea." His commission's July report stated: "China provides technology and components for weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems to terrorist sponsoring states such as North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Sudan." (Note: If you are presently invested in the wrong Chinese companies, it is now time to get out before the real arm-twisting begins.)

Meanwhile the South Koreans have responded to the crisis in an irrational way. The threat of destructive war has had a corrosive effect. South Koreans prefer to believe that North Korean nuclear weapons are not intended for use against the South, but only against the Japanese and Americans. Therefore the nuclear problem is America's problem and Japan's problem, not South Korea's problem. Some in South Korea say that the Americans are the troublemakers, not the communists. If only the Americans stopped fretting about DPRK nuclear weapons.

The selfish fearfulness of the South Koreans is perhaps understandable. Imagine living in a country that could be turned into "a sea of flame." Would you have the courage to speak out against the threatening power, the power that could destroy your comfortable existence in a matter of minutes or hours? Former South Korean foreign minister Han Sung Joo recently explained that the fault lies with the South Korean government. The people have not been educated about the radical evil represented by communism. People are ignorant about the danger. "We have a government that is interested in playing down the threat," Han noted. After all, it is the South Korean government and its ministers that would be the first to die in a conflict.

The South Korean reaction to the crisis is no doubt frustrating for President Bush. When he criticized the North Korean dictator shortly after taking office, the South Koreans were seriously upset. While attending an April 2001 conference on Korea at the George Bush school at Texas A&M I overheard the former president, George H.W. Bush, talking to the South Korean ambassador at the next table in an attempt to smooth the ruffled feathers. "I know my son's heart," he said. "Peace will be given a chance." But that was before the Sept. 11 attacks. And besides, George W. Bush does not want to give food and fuel to the murderous DPRK regime. He does not favor a policy of appeasement.

It was therefore something of a slap in the face when South Korea recently elected the left-of-center labor lawyer, Roh Moo Hyun, who foolishly advocates South Korean independence from U.S. policy. No doubt the situation hurts Korean pride, but pride goeth before a fall. If not for America the South Koreans would be cold and hungry and oppressed like their countrymen in the North. On its side the United States has paid a high price in blood and treasure to keep South Korea free and prosperous. But as Machiavelli noted in The Prince: "There is nothing so self-defeating as generosity: in the act of practicing it · you become either poor or despised · and generosity results in your being both."

Now that the United States is threatened by North Korean nuclear proliferation, the South Korean electorate is not willing to support U.S. policy. It seems that they would prefer a separate peace. What does it matter if Pyongyang trains Syrian engineers and scientists to use weapons of mass destruction? What does it matter if Iranian scientists are training in North Korea? That is Israel's problem. That is America's problem, and it is a big problem indeed.

In the next war North Korean plans to unleash chemical, nuclear and biological weapons. North Korea has large quantities of sarin gas, anthrax and smallpox. The North Korean military holds chemical warfare exercises on an annual basis. American intelligence estimates that one-fourth of North Korea's missiles are loaded with chemical warheads. In August 1998 North Korea test-fired its Taepo Dong-1 missile, which has a range of 1300 miles. Evidence suggests that North Korea may soon develop missiles that can hit the United States.

Even more to the point, North Korea's belligerence reveals a larger potential problem. It illuminates Russia and China's coordination of policy. North Korea continues to enjoy good relations with both Russia and China. Last year the North Korean dictator slipped off to a secret summit meeting in Siberia with the Presidents of Russia and China. The triangle of Russia-China-North Korea deserves closer scrutiny because strategic coordination between these countries is directed against the United States. As in the case of Afghanistan, Korea sits near a joint that connects Chinese and Soviet territory. It is no coincidence that virulent "rogue" elements exist at both joints. The Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, said al Qaeda's plan was nothing less than "the destruction" of the United States. This statement is practically identical to statements made by the North Korean leadership.

In early 1999 the official North Korean press stated: "The United States will be reduced to ashes and will cease to exist·." North Korean headlines from the first week of 1999 proclaimed that: "U.S. imperialist aggressors will be unable to avoid annihilating strikes." Another North Korean article explained that Americans would eventually be "wiped from this planet for good." The North Korean leadership calls upon its people to "love rifles, earnestly learn military affairs and turn the whole country into an impregnable fortress."

With only 23 million people North Korea is small despite its mobilized strength. It cannot defeat the United States by itself. Only in combination with other countries can North Korea play a significant strategic role, and then only in terms of a much wider war. Not surprisingly, a world war is the kind of war North Korea has armed itself to fight. In the late 1990s, Kongdon On, a North Korean specialist at the Institute for Defense Analysis in Washington said that North Korea had begun to behave "very strangely." The country's military buildup was then being accelerated for no apparent reason. People were being starved so that the country's military budget could be further expanded. Imagine a small country with the world's third largest army. It is instructive to view footage of one of North Korea's military parades. What you see is tens of thousands of disciplined troops in spotless uniforms goose-stepping past generals and dignitaries. This is no ragtag band. These are not the ill-disciplined troops of Saddam Hussein.

In his new book, The High Cost of Peace, Yossef Bodansky laid out the strategic ambitions of North Korea as they developed in unison with the ambitions of Syria and Iran. In his chapter titled "The World War That Almost Was," Bodansky noted that while Moscow supported Saddam Hussein, it also "began assisting the rise of this fledgling Syrian-Iranian bloc." The aim of this bloc was to start a major war in the Middle East by attacking Israel. At some point during the planning process, North Korea was asked to participate by simultaneously starting a war in the Far East. Bodansky tells us that the development of Iranian and North Korean nuclear strike capability was necessary for the plan to move forward. The technology for this would ultimately come from China and Russia. Nuclear weapons were sold under the table from the "former" Soviet arsenal while missile technology was shipped from China.

North Korea's role was integral to the military plans of Iran and Syria, who hoped to start their offensive in the fall of 1992. Syria and Iran positioned themselves to strike Israel. At the same time, terrorist cells would "deliver the jihad to the heart of the West" and North Korea would launch its blitzkrieg in the Far East. Bodansky states that on August 23, 1992, "The leadership [of Iran] resolved to cooperate with Syria and North Korea in preparations for the autumn conflagration." Bodanksy tells us that Iran's two nuclear warheads were "fitted to their ballistic missiles at Isfahan·." According to Bodansky, what derailed the attack was an internal power struggle within North Korea. The country's Moscow-installed dictator, Kim Il Sung, was too old to lead and his son, Kim Jong Il, was not fully in control. As Bodansky explained, "neither [Kim Il Sung] nor anybody else really trusted Kim Jong Il to take the country through a crisis that would amount to a world war." Eighteen military officers plotted to kill Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. In a totalitarian country, however, such plots do not succeed because the military is riddled with informers and communist spies. Those involved in the plot were arrested and executed. But the war was postponed.

In the present instance we ought to ask if North Korea, Syria and Iran are preparing to launch a major war. Has the Syrian-Iranian plan emerged once more, polished and perfected after a decade of waiting?

As America prepares to attack Iraq the possibility of other countries joining in, against the American side, should be considered. If these countries, along with North Korea, were willing to launch a great war in 1992 why should they hesitate now? The U.S. forces were larger in 1992 than they now are. The U.S. economy is also suffering from problems that war could only exacerbate.

The Korea crisis therefore craves wary watching.

© 2002 <http://www.jrnyquist.com/>Jeffrey R. Nyquist
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