Serious Situation

February 20, 2003

The delicate nature of the situation along Israel's northern border with Lebanon was illustrated overnight when the army asked Israeli newspapers and electronic media to cease reporting details of a military buildup in the area. News that Israeli forces were being beefed up was first broadcast at 8:00 PM last evening on Israel's most watched nightly news program, on Channel 2. The commercial channel then repeated the story at the end of its broadcast at 8:30, which included details that tanks and anti-aircraft missiles were being deployed in the upper Galilee area along the Lebanon border, just below the strategic Golan Heights.

In the meantime, Israeli newspapers broke the story on their web sites. The one included below is from the Haaretz daily, posted as you can see at 8:23. However, the main evening newscast one hour later on state-run Israel Television did not even mention the buildup, which seasoned Israelis would understand probably meant that the story was being suppressed for security reasons. It did appear for several more hours on newspaper web sites, but was finally killed around midnight.

Since many Israelis had seen the Channel 2 report, and others the web site updates, the army realized that it had to comment on the reported buildup. It then issued a statement that "no special alert" was in effect in the tense border area, nor were "unusual security measures" being taken. Newspapers today have simply carried that statement with no further comment, and it was not even mentioned on this morning's electronic media.

The Channel 2 and website reports highlight the difficult position that military censors find themselves in today. When the first Gulf War took place only 12 years ago, Israel had only one TV channel, loosely controlled by the government, and no 24 hour a day news web sites. The situation is much more complex today, and certainly much harder for army censors to monitor.

WAR DANGERS INCREASE

On another front, Israeli military analysts say that the decision by Turkey to further delay a decision to allow US forces to be stationed near its border with Iraq is a severe blow to American war plans. They warn that it will also place those forces in much greater danger, in that they will apparently now be shifted to the southern Kuwait theater--leaving almost all US and British ground forces in one staging area. This will make it easier for Iraqi forces to resist their expected lightning advance when the war begins, and also places them in greater danger of a pre-emptive attack, possibly with non-conventional weapons. The movement of stranded US forces from off the Turkish coast to Kuwait would take at least ten days to complete, meaning the planned late February or early March launch of military action may need to be delayed.

Growing Turkish resistance to US war preparations increases my concerns that coalition battle plans may not be carried out as rapidly or smoothly as most analysts have predicted. I have sensed in my prayer times in recent weeks that the pending conflict may not be the quick routing of the enemy that many expect, although I have no doubt that Saddam and his evil regime will be wiped out in the end. I have sensed that it may also be an opportunity for at least some amount of divine judgment on the two Western powers that are pushing the hardest at present for a Palestinian state to quickly arise in the hills of Judea and Samaria, Israel's biblical heartland. US leaders in particular seem to have not learned the lesson from the failed Oslo "land for peace" process, which was pushed along by the Clinton administration despite growing Palestinian violence in the 1990s. The ongoing Palestinian terror war, which has claimed over 750 Israeli lives since October 2000, should be proof enough that many Palestinians, including senior leaders like Yasser Arafat, are not yet ready to truly give up their PLO Charter goal to eventually annihilate tiny Israel. As promised, I will discuss that issue more fully in the near future.

So as not to depress you too much, let me end on a more positive note! It is raining heavily in Jerusalem this morning, as it is around the country. Storms are expected to continue until Saturday. Indeed, we are experiencing much stronger rains so far this winter than were predicted by the weather service, and the severely depleted Sea of Galilee is rapidly filling up with much needed water. Officials had warned that light rain this winter would lead to drinking water rationing this summer, with the risk that the water quality of the lake and underground aquifers would be irreversibly harmed. So we are thanking the Lord for the strong rains, and for your prayers for the same.

DAVID DOLAN