Shock and Awe

March 14, 2003
Friday morning, 10:00 AM

The war-weary and nervous Israeli public woke up this morning to the sobering news that Saddam is moving Scud missiles into his western desert--within range of Israel. The reports, attributed to the US Pentagon, are the main item on all Israelis television and radio news reports today. They were first broadcast by Fox News and ABC in the United States last night. Fox is carried by most Israeli cable networks. The reports added that Iraqi troops and heavy artillery are also moving into positions near Kuwait, where they could open fire on American, British and Australian forces stationed there. Israeli officials have said that Iraq is thought to still posses at least 15 Scud missiles and several launchers. But analysts say many more Scuds may have been secretly smuggled into the country from Iran after UN inspectors were kicked out by Saddam in late 1998.

The reported Scud deployments bring to mind the start of the 1991 Gulf War, which began just after midnight on January 17 in the middle of the week. No Scuds fell then, but they did on Thursday evening and again on Friday evening--while most Israelis were eating their weekly Sabbath meals. Now, worried folks are wondering if this Sabbath might see a repeat performance.

Nearly all military analysts have predicted that Saddam would not dare launch a pre-emptive strike against Israel, lest he risk an intense response. However, I and others have warned that conditions are radically different this time than in 1991. Then, the goal was merely to force Saddam's troops back across the Iraqi border with occupied Kuwait. Now, the White House has publicly declared that the ultimate aim is nothing less then the destruction of Saddam's regime, even though this has not been officially sanctioned by the United Nations and is not publicly admitted even by British officials. Therefore, Saddam has virtually nothing to lose by opening fire first, since it is now obvious that President Bush is determined to go after him even if the US is forced to go it alone. Under these circumstances, few people in the Muslim world would see a preemptive Iraqi strike as unwarranted aggression, even if it might win more Western support for the president's position. And if it provoked an Israeli response, all the better since Saddam seeks to go down fighting in the "holy struggle to liberate" Jerusalem. Since Saddam is obviously going to get pancaked anyway in the coming days, why not go out as a suicide martyr giving a Saladin jolt to the detested "Zionist entity"?

Another important factor which could spur on an Iraqi preemptive attack is the repositioning of US naval forces from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, south of the Suez Canal. US military leaders have reportedly concluded that they can no longer wait for Turkish approval to send cruise missiles over Turkish airspace towards Iraq. Therefore they are moving some 10 ships armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles south, which should take several days. Published warplanes say the warships are meant to fire deadly cruise missiles over Saudi airspace in the opening hours of the pending US attack. Of course, Saddam knows this, and so might conclude that a preemptive strike before the ships are in place might be to his advantage. Reports also say that some US jets, and possibly missiles, will now fly over Israel and Jordan instead of Turkish airspace. This increases the risks of an Iraqi attack against the small Jewish State. All this comes after the White House realized on Tuesday that the slow UN path is at a total dead end (they then publicly gave more time to the defunct process, but only to give a political cover to their besieged ally, Tony Blair).

All this to say, please hold us in extra prayer this crucial weekend.

The weekly news program that I am doing for the British-based God Channel will premier tonight. I believe that it will air at 20:45 GMT, but the time stated on the channel's web site has it 21:45. I think that is the time on the European continent. At any rate, it can also be watched from all over the world by going to their web site, www.god.tv I would recommend you go there a few minutes before to make sure you can access their live broadcasts. The times in North America would be 3:45 PM EST, and 12:45 PM on the west coast.

Below is my latest contribution for World Net Daily, to be published this weekend I believe. In light of today's news of a possible preemptive Iraqi attack upon Israel and coalition forces stationed in Kuwait, it is all the more relevant I think. I still sense in my spirit that this war may be more difficult than many have thought, at least until recently, or have consequence that are far more grave than generally anticipated. Certainly the run-up to war has been far more difficult than the White House anticipated, with unexpected reverses in Turkey and at the United Nations. I am most concerned about the possibility that North Korea may support Saddam by stirring up more trouble on the divided peninsula--possibly backed by hardline Maoist elements in the Chinese government--as I have spoken about for over one year, and also over a possible devastating terror attack inside America. While you keep us in prayer, may the Lord bless you all out of Zion.

One final technical note: A few have written to say that the text of these updates does not fit on your screens, or you cannot print it out. Since the numbers appear to be small, may I suggest that you simply go to my website whenever you get one of these messages and read it, and/or print it out from there. My website is www.ddolan.com

SHOCK AND AWE

By David Dolan

On September 11th 2001, almost every nation on earth expressed deep shock and real sympathy over the horrendous terror attacks that shook the United States to its core. Yasser Arafat even donated blood in a symbolic, if cynical, show of supposed Palestinian support. America's true allies in NATO gave their full backing for whatever actions might be deemed necessary to punish the Islamic terrorist groups behind the deadly atrocities.

Exactly one and a half years later, the greatest military power ever to exist on earth is about to launch Round Two of its anti-terrorism war: A dazzling "shock and awe" campaign against the notorious Butcher of Baghdad.

Most terrorism experts believe that Saddam Hussein did not know about, or actively support, the Al Qaida attacks in advance. Still, President Bush seems determined to topple the Iraqi regime, if only to send a clear message to other threatening despots building weapons of mass destruction that the USA is no longer ruled by Bill Clinton.

However, there is one bothersome fly in the ointment. Most countries, including some who professed profound grief over the 9/11 attacks, are not currently standing with the United States. In fact, opinion polls in almost every nation, apart from the U.S., Kuwait and Israel, show heavy opposition to an assault on Iraq that is not explicitly mandated by a new United Nations vote.

Overwhelming domestic opinion against such a war at least partly explains why the French foreign minister has been rushing around Africa whipping up Security Council opposition to the looming conflict. Russia, Germany, China and many smaller countries have cheered on the effort, as has the Pope, the new Archbishop of Canterbury and many other religious leaders.

Tony Blair, the staunch defender of America who declared on 9/11 that a "new world order" would result from the New York and Washington terror attacks, has been busy plugging as many fingers as possible into the leaking holes in his crumbling wall of political support. The prime minister's growing internal revolt prompted U.S. leaders to reluctantly declare the obvious-the most awesome military force on earth does not really need British military support to turn Saddam into toast.

As true as that might be, it is still rather startling to contemplate the fact that the victim of 9/11 is apparently about to undertake risky military action in the volatile Middle East without the backing of most governments around the world, including some of America's closest traditional allies. This begs for one question to be immediately answered. How did the tremendous international sympathy and support expressed just over one year ago dissipate so fast?

We Americans-citizens of the most powerful nation in history-often tend to forget that we constitute a mere 5% of the world's population. That means 95 out of every 100 people breathing air at this moment is NOT a U.S. citizen, even if our great wealth means we are likely to be found at tourist sites around the globe. Almost all non-Americans have reason to envy and resent our high standard of living since they manage to exist, or not, well below it.

Still, widespread world poverty does not explain the intense French campaign to derail George W's imminent war against Saddam. The people of Paris and Marseille are hardly lacking food-and highly edible stuff at that. The same goes for the good folks in Frankfurt and Berlin. French and German policy on the Iraqi crisis is probably based on "Old Europe's" attempt to reassert its historic primacy as the political and economic center of the universe. This has clearly riled the reigning mega-power, which is showing its irritation by giving new names to fried potato slices and pouring fine wine down the drain.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news on the eve of a major war, but a quick read of the international press suggests that America's reaction seems stranger to most people on earth than France's strong anti-war stance. After all, whatever the French government's hidden agendas might be, its democratically elected leaders are, well, democratically elected. Ditto in Germany. The leaders in these neighboring lands are clearly reflecting overwhelming public opinion by opposing a unilateral American war. The same is true in Russia, Greece, Egypt, etc. In fact, it is the leaders of America's closest European allies, Great Britain, Spain and Italy, who are bucking domestic opinion by backing George Bush.

As the great champion of democracy worldwide-even in Iraq, according to the president-US officials appear a bit hypocritical to many folks as they declare their intention to go to war no matter how the countries on the UN Security Council feel or vote. More to the point, many fear that while America may rapidly win the military battle, it will also pour fresh toxic oil on Islamic fires raging around the globe. They sense that the president's stated war aim-to deal a crippling body blow to international Muslim terrorism-could be turned on its head, producing the exact opposite result.

The deep reservations expressed by several of America's closest allies on the eve of battle will hopefully prove to be way overdone. But widespread international reluctance to support the president's war plans should not simply be dismissed out of hand as the usual America bashing. That is surely the motive of many naysayers, especially in Muslim lands. But others may simply be trying to warn their American friends that shock and awe can go two ways.

http://www.ddolan.com/new/docs/current/updMar1403.shtml