Steve Quayle News Alerts

October 1, 2003
By CAROLE CLOUDWALKER

A Wyoming geologist is cautioning people not to panic about a "bulge" on the bottom of Yellowstone Lake that has been the object of recent scientific study.

Jim Case of Cheyenne, a scientist with the Wyoming Geological Survey who specializes in geological hazards, said some reports of dangers related to the "inflated plain" off Storm Point near Mary Bay may give people the wrong impression.

There's no indication of any imminent danger, Case said.

Evaluating the potential for danger is Lisa Morgan of Denver, who works with the U.S. Geological Survey. She has spent several summers studying and mapping the floor of Yellowstone Lake. She has reported spotting - and this summer landing a robotic submarine on - the inflated plain.

While Morgan has said, clearly, the feature was most likely "not volcanic" and probably is filled with steam or gas, some Internet sites and other sources have attempted to link the plain to volcanic eruptions.

One such site is yowusa.com, where the focus is on headlines such as, "It Is Time To Cast a Worried Eye Toward Yellowstone."

The site draws parallels between August earthquake activity near Yellowstone and the eruption of Mount Saint Helens and Mount Vesuvius, stating people "need to make a personal commitment to become informed and continuously aware of this building threat - especially if you live within 600 miles of Yellowstone Park."

In a worst-case scenario, the site declares, "the hot ash could bury you alive, as it did to the residents of Pompeii."

Recommendations are to stock up on plastic sheeting and duct tape, disposable dust masks or coffee filters, Army surplus ponchos, thick-soled boots, flashlights, batteries and hand-crank radios to be prepared for the worst.

Case, who works closely with emergency management coordinators, says not only is there no evidence of imminent disaster, but if there were, word would spread quickly via local emergency personnel.

David Ibarra of California, who works with Marshall Masters, owner of the yowusa.com Web site, said Larry Park wrote much of the information posted on the site.

Park's research "appears to be quite solid," Ibarra said last week. He agreed some information on the site could be misinterpreted, including a map entitled, "Yellowstone - Early Stage Alert - Precautionary Warning," which indicates the entire nation could be affected by an eruption.

But Ibarra agreed with Case that the map actually shows the area thought to have received ash from eruptions thousands of years ago in Yellowstone, even though it's not labeled as such.

Of the plain, Case says:

* It is not "volcanic," except in the sense that there is a magma chamber 5-10 miles under Yellowstone Park causing "heated water at the surface."
* The bulge "may have been there for decades," based on previous bathymetric studies.
* There is no evidence the feature is growing; Morgan is analyzing information that could determine more about that question.

"Something is going on inside Yellowstone," Case agreed. "But it has been going on for years."

He said three huge volcanic eruptions struck the area now called Yellowstone took place 640,000 years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 2.1 million years ago, but there is nothing to indicate one is "due."

"And it's not like 'Dante's Peak,' where people are trying to keep things secret," added Case, who says he has received telephone calls about the inflated plain.

"We've had people calling and asking us, 'Should we stay away from Yellowstone?'" he said.

He answers that there are hazards, and it's good to be aware of hazards. But "if information is obtained and confirmed that there is an existing hazard and imminent danger, the public will be notified," he says.

Case notes that danger is present everywhere.

"The thing to do is try to live with the hazard, and not overreact," Case says, citing dangers in Florida from sink holes, in the Pacific Northwest from "smaller volcanoes," in Alaska from the "potential for magnitude 9.2 earthquakes and explosions," and in Seattle for powerful earthquakes.

"And those things are much more frequent than in Yellowstone," he said.

Case said the most reliable information about Yellowstone's thermal activity is available at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Internet site, http://volcanoes.usgs.gov /yvo/.

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