April 2, 2004
By Jerd Smith, Rocky Mountain News

High country snowpack dropped alarmingly in March, pushing the state into its fifth year of drought and making strict summer watering rules almost a certainty for many communities.

The statewide snowpack - a critical indicator of fresh water supplies - measured just 65 percent of average Thursday, well below the 94 percent of average recorded one year ago, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

"The message is grim," said Roger Pielke Sr., state climatologist. "Water managers need to plan now to conserve. We're in very poor conditions for water this summer."

The precipitous decline in the snowpack since March 1 is one of the most dramatic melt-offs ever recorded in a single month, the Conservation Service said.

In areas critical to Front Range water supplies, such as the South Platte and the Arkansas River basins, the snowpacks are even lower, registering 51 and 60 percent of average, respectively.

Denver Water, the state's largest water utility, and Aurora have already warned customers to prepare for watering restrictions and surcharges.

In February, Denver Water asked customers to voluntarily refrain from outdoor watering in March and April to help protect stored water supplies.

How tough the new restrictions are will depend on how much water the melting snows deliver to reservoirs. Colorado derives about 80 percent of its annual water supplies from the snow.

Aurora has said it will determine drought restrictions April 12. Denver Water, which serves 1.2 million metro-area customers, had planned to wait until late in the month to make a decision.

But manager Chips Barry said Thursday the utility's board would likely vote on watering rules earlier than expected, on April 14.

"I can't say for sure because that is the board's decision, but I think they will decide earlier instead of waiting," Barry said.

March 1, the outlook was much wetter, with statewide snowpack measuring 90 percent of average, still not high enough to end the drought, but comparable to 2003, when much of the Front Range was able to lift summer watering restrictions and surcharges.

But this March delivered little snow and lots of warm, windy days, causing snowpack levels to drop 25 percentage points, to 65 percent of average, at a time when they normally rise, according to Tony Tolsdorf, a Conservation Service hydrologist.

"It's been very dramatic," Tolsdorf said. "Between the lack of snow and the melt-off, this is one of the biggest reductions in snowpack we've ever seen in one month."

Gov. Bill Owens, who declared a statewide drought in the spring of 2002 when similar conditions arose, is watching the weather and the early start of the wildfire season closely, said spokesman Dan Hopkins.

"He's very concerned about the dry conditions," Hopkins said.

March was the driest in Denver since 1908, according to the National Weather Service. The metro area received .14 inches of moisture for the month, well below the 1.28 inches normally recorded.

Though statewide snowpacks are higher than they were in 2002, when they measured 52 percent of average on April 1, water officials are concerned because stored water supplies are lower.

Denver Water's reservoirs are 72 percent full. Normally at this time, they're above 80 percent full.

In 2002, Denver Water's storage system dropped from 76 percent full April 1 to 66 percent full July 1, marking the first time in the utility's history that reservoir levels dropped during the spring runoff, when they normally fill, Barry said.

As Coloradans gear up for what could become a repeat of 2002, weather forecasters called for some wet weather this weekend, but few believe enough rain or snow will fall in April to reverse the downward trend in water supplies this year.

"We haven't seen a dry spell this long since the 1950s," said state climatologist Pielke. "But in many respects we're more vulnerable to drought now than we were back then because we have more people, and there is more competition for the water."

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