Dec. 27, 2004
BY JIM WAYMER
FLORIDA TODAY

A tsunami, as fast as a 747, could dwarf the coastal devastation wrought by recent hurricanes. Odds of one here are slim, but it could happen, and did nearly 250 years ago.

"I think it's -- one more time -- a wake-up call," George Maul, a Florida Tech oceanographer said of Sunday's tsunami that killed an estimated 22,000 in Asia.

A similar tsunami here could inundate barrier islands along the eastern seaboard, with an untold death toll.

Maul has warned for more than a decade of such a scenario and the need for better warnings.

But government scientists say current warnings are good enough. The Atlantic Ocean, they say, lacks the major fault lines that trigger severe tsunamis.

"There's potential there, but the probability is very low," said Bob Morton, research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies in St. Petersburg. "I'd put that right in the category of another asteroid hitting us."

Another worst-case tsunami scenario for the eastern U.S. would be volcanic activity jarring loose enough of La Palma -- one of the Canary Islands -- to send a tsunami 150 feet tall our way. British researchers predict such a tsunami could push ocean water up to 60 miles inland.

But other scientists doubt the waves could reach here with that kind of intensity.

Morton said odds of such an event are infinitesimally low. Existing worldwide seismic devices would likely detect such a eruption, he said, allowing for adequate warning to the United States.

In fact, the federal tsunami warning center in Hawaii issued an information bulletin at 8:14 p.m. Saturday, of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the west coast of Northern Sumatra, hours before the tsunami hit.

But lack of adequate communications in the affected nations prevented word from reaching the local level.

"You've got to have communication systems in place," Morton said. "Apparently, that's what's lacking in these island communities."

ROGUE WAVE

The closest thing to a Florida tsunami in recent memory was a rogue wave in Daytona Beach 13 years ago. Just before midnight on July 3, 1992, the wave -- said to be 18 feet tall -- injured 20 people and damaged 10 cars.

Geologists first suspected an underwater landslide caused the wave, but later linked it to thunderstorms from the Georgia coast.

Rogue waves are caused when several waves traveling similar speeds combine to form larger ones. Tsunamis form from earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and asteroids.

"It's a tele-tsunami that's most dangerous," Maul said.

Those are tsunamis that hit at high speeds from distances too far for us to feel the earthquake beforehand.

"It could happen in the middle of the Atlantic and take three or four hours to reach us," he said.

In 1755, an earthquake in Lisbon, Portugal, sent a tele-tsunami into Florida about seven hours later. The impact on the state is unknown because of the sparse population at the time.

U.S. DEATHS

Tsunamis have taken America lives before. Most recently, in 1964, a 9.2-magnitude earthquake in Alaska killed 132 people -- 122 deaths were attributed to the tsunami the quake generated.

The most severe tsunamis hit in coastal nations in the Pacific Ocean, where tectonic plates come together. In the Atlantic, however, plates are expanding, making major earthquake-driven tsunamis less of a threat.

"The Atlantic is a spreading center, those continents are moving away from each other," Morton said.

Still, Maul's asked the federal government since 1993 to create a better tsunami warning system for the southeast United States and Caribbean. It hasn't happened.

He wants alerts broadcast on weather radios. Like tornado warnings, they would give about 10- to 15-minute warning for people on or near the beach to rush to safety. The system would update existing tide and seismic monitors and add a few more where needed.

It would cost about $2.4 million to get the system going.

Maul ultimately envisions a warning system that spans the entire eastern United States, but the federal government has yet to fund the system.

A government and university partnership called SeaGrant, however, recently awarded Maul $10,000 to model how tsunamis of varying strength might encroach on land. Such models help to map potential tsunami hazard areas.

LITTLE INTEREST

Within the past few years, Maul's written President Bush and every congressman from Texas to Maine about the tsunami threat to the eastern United States. He's received two replies.

"This is not a lot of money on the larger scheme of things," Maul said.

The National Weather Service already has tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. Both were established after major tsunamis killed hundreds.

Maul hopes it doesn't take such an event to create better warnings for the Caribbean and Florida. He worries most about a tsunami hitting cruise ships in ports.

"We're not prepared for this kind of event."

Contact Waymer at 242-3663 or jwaymer@flatoday.net

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