Steve Quayle News Alerts

Feb. 2, 2004
From staff and wire reports

Americans likely would pick Sen. John Kerry over President Bush if the election were held today, according to a new USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll that's filled with bad news for the president.

The poll showed Bush with the lowest approval rating of his presidency at 49%, plus other top Democratic presidential candidates fared well against him in head-to-head matchups. Bush also had the lowest approval ratings of his presidency for his handling of the economy, foreign affairs and his performance on health care policy, with the numbers on those issues sinking substantially in the past few weeks.

"It's hard to believe that these numbers could turn as quickly as they have," political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said of the poll results. "My gut tells me that the direction is right, but the magnitude may be a bit of an exaggeration."

The poll was conducted among 1,001 adults from Jan. 29-Feb. 1. The questions about presidential preference have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Rothenberg noted the poll was taken shortly after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary — a time when Democrats dominated the political news. "As long as the Democrats are driving the discussion, he (Bush) is not going to be in good shape," Rothenberg said.

Among likely voters, Kerry held a 53%-46% edge over Bush, a gap larger than the margin of error and a substantial turnaround from the 55-43 edge Bush held only three weeks ago. Most of the other leading Democrats landed in a statistical tie, polling within the margin of error in head-to-head matchups. Sen. John Edwards led Bush 49-48 among likely voters, and retired Gen. Wesley Clark trailed Bush 47-50.

The notable exception was former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who trailed Bush by a 52-45 margin in a head-to-head matchup. That number still is an improvement for Dean from a poll three weeks ago, in which Dean trailed 56-41.

Bush's low approval rating was matched by the highest disapproval rating — 48% — of his presidency. Three percent of those polled had no opinion.

Fifty-four percent of Americans disapproved of the way Bush is handling the economy, compared to 43% who approve. Those numbers are a mirror opposite from polling in early January, in which Bush received 54% approval and 43% disapproval for his performance on the economy.

By a 51-46 margin, Americans disapproved of Bush's handling of foreign affairs. The disapproval rating grew when those polled were asked about Bush's Iraq performance, with 53% disapproving to 46% approving. And on health care, Bush received a 57-35 disapproval rating.

In all cases except the Iraq question, the approval ratings were the lowest of the Bush presidency. Bush received a 45% approval rating in early November 2003 on the Iraq situation.

"These are numbers that will probably keep changing throughout the year. It's evident that this is a very fluid time in what could be a very volatile political year," said political analyst Rhodes Cook. "It underscores the belief that this could be a very close election, rather like 2000."

The poll comes a day before key Democratic primaries and caucuses in seven states that put 269 delegates at stake.

WHAT'S AT STAKE TUESDAY

There are 269 delegates at stake Tuesday. Here are the seven states holding Democratic contests that day and the number of delegates in each:

Arizona, 55
Delaware, 15
Missouri, 74
New Mexico, 26
North Dakota, 14
Oklahoma, 40
South Carolina, 45

Kerry was campaigning Monday in New Mexico, where a new poll shows him as the front-runner.

Kerry garnered the support of 31% of the 500 likely Democratic voters in the copyright poll published in Sunday's Albuquerque Journal. The poll showed former front-runner Howard Dean with 15% and Wesley Clark with 14% — a statistically insignificant difference given the margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Some 27% of the Democrats questioned in the random telephone poll Jan. 28-29 remained undecided.

"We feel good about how the undecided are going to go," Bill Burton, one of Kerry's spokesmen in New Mexico, said Monday.

Edwards improved to 7% from the 4% showing in another Journal poll taken before Kerry's victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman dropped from 8% to 3%. Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich hit 2% Sunday. The poll was conducted by Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc.

The earlier Journal poll had shown 8% for Kerry, 18% for Dean, 16% for Clark, 6% for Kucinich and 34% undecided with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Kerry spoke to about 300 people at a rally Monday morning at the University of New Mexico, telling them President Bush does not understand the struggles facing the nation and needs to go. Lieberman spoke Monday to children at an Albuquerque elementary school, telling them America is a place where dreams can be realized. Clark planned appearances in Albuquerque and Las Vegas, N.M., Monday, while Dean traveled to Santa Fe for a rally Monday.

Non-Kerry camps emphasized the large number of undecided voters in the most recent poll.

Luis Vizcaino, spokesman for Clark in New Mexico, said the poll was taken on the first day of a major campaign push in New Mexico by Clark, and said the campaign seems to be gaining momentum.

"Polls are fluid and we're just going to move forward," Vizcaino said.

"We're very confident we'll do well in New Mexico," he said.

Dean campaigners also said respondents were registered Democrats who voted in the last two primary and general elections, whereas the actual voters might be more diverse.

"We have brought a lot of new people into the process," said Andres Gonzalez, Dean's director of national Hispanic strategy who has been in New Mexico since the Iowa caucuses. "We've had Greens who've reregistered as Democrats. We've had Republicans reregister as Democrats. We've had a lot of people who've never registered register to vote for Howard Dean. None of them were represented in that poll."

State party officials expected the caucus vote to reflect about 50,000 party members, or roughly 10% of the party's state membership.

Dean officials emphasized the thousands of mail-in ballots sent in to the state Democratic Party, some before the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Of the more than 29,000 mailed out, party officials on Sunday said they had received 24,475.

"What that poll doesn't reflect is that we had a very strong absentee voting program, stronger than anyone else's," Gonzalez said.

Edwards' wife Elizabeth said her husband's improvement in the numbers in New Mexico echoes his improving numbers nationwide.

"That's what we've seen nationwide, frankly, in every state — he keeps increasing his numbers," said Elizabeth Edward, who was stumping in northern New Mexico on Sunday for her husband.

Rep. Dick Gephardt, who has dropped out of the race but whose name will appear on caucus ballots, had the support of 1% of those polled.

Contributing: Associated Press writers Patricia L. Garcia and Susan Montoya Bryan.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-02-02-campaign-roundup_x.htm