May 2, 2004

Britain could be reduced to a similar status as Switzerland in its relations with the European Union if it votes No to the proposed constitution, a senior Brussels official has warned.

Trade commissioner Pascal Lamy made clear that he expected other members of the 25-strong Union to press ahead with the controversial treaty even if Britain rejected it.

That could leave the UK as part of a "rear guard" of states which participate in the single market but, like the non-EU Swiss, are not integrated into the Union's political structures and have no say over how it develops, he suggested.

Meanwhile, European Commission President Romano Prodi warned that the consequences of a No vote would be "heavy", leading to the emergence of a two or three-speed EU.

But shadow foreign secretary Michael Ancram dismissed the warnings as "scare tactics" designed to win over sceptical Britons by convincing them they were voting not on the merits of the treaty but on EU membership itself.

He insisted that a British No vote must block the constitution, returning Europe to the current status quo and allowing a future UK government to restart discussions on its future.

Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has pledged that the Government will "respect the view... of the British people" in the upcoming referendum, expected in 2005 or 2006.

But he declined to state whether that meant ruling out a second referendum if the result is No. And he brushed aside the question of whether Tony Blair would be forced to quit as PM, saying: "Of course he won't".

"It goes without saying that we will respect the view and opinion and power of the British people in a referendum," Mr Straw told BBC1's Breakfast with Frost.

"If there is a referendum, the Act of Parliament establishing a referendum will make it very clear that the British people have the final say and they will do. What will happen after that, I am not going to speculate on because it depends on what Parliament and the British people then want to happen."

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