by Sean Osborne
I have compiled some key notes (with footnotes indicating the source) from my OSINT search regarding Russian-made tactical nuclear weapons and terrorist use of them. The abbreviated symbol TNW is used in one source below in place of Tactical Nuclear Weapon.
Begin Notes:
The former assistant secretary of defense, Graham Allison, wrote an article for The Economist that un-named terrorist groups were attempting break-in's of Russian nuclear storage sites and the possibility that up to 40 KGB suitcase nuclear bombs are unaccounted for.
Last year, says Mr. Allison, the CIA intercepted a message in which a member of the Al Qaeda group boasted of plans for an American Hiroshima. (1)
Although TNWs often possess smaller blast yields than strategic nuclear weapons, some higher-yield TNWs (in the 10 to 25 KT range, or greater) actually are more powerful than some classes of strategic nuclear weapons, with requisite destructive potential. Even a very low-yield atomic blast would create highly damaging effects, above and beyond what a conventional explosion of the same size could produce.
TNWs are easier to transport and more vulnerable to theft than other nuclear weapons. In the hands of terrorists, TNWs would wreak a havoc far-surpassing the devastating outcomes of the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington. According to the Department of Defense, use of a nuclear weapon by terrorists would most likely be against either a military installation or a political target (e.g., the seat of government, large population center, or commercial port city). In such a scenario, citizens outside the immediate lethal area would be exposed to the prompt radiation of the initial explosion as well as to chronic exposures resulting from the residual radioactive fallout.
The existing Russian TNW arsenal is beset with problems of storage and accounting. Concerns about theft of nuclear material or the contracting out of nuclear expertise are exacerbated by unemployed or underpaid nuclear technicians who, as the fallout of a crumbling Russian economy, may be tempted to illegally sell nuclear matter to terrorist groups and renegade states. Terrorist organizations have attempted to acquire these weapons, and the possibility exists that one day they could be successful. Indeed, former FBI investigator Oliver Revell said in an October 2001 interview with ABC news, "Usama bin Laden has been in contact with various sources, including Russian Mafia groups, in an attempt to obtain radiological materials, perhaps tactical nuclear weapons."President Bush, on November 6, 2001, in reference to Al Qaeda, stated "They are seeking chemical, biological and nuclear weapons,"and implied a willingness by them and other terrorist groups to use nuclear weapons.
Russia, in the face of an ever expanding NATO alliance armed with an increase in qualitative and quantitative conventional military capabilities, has abandoned its pledge not to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict and has increased its reliance on TNW's as "war-fighting weapons".
Russia‚s new "Concept of National Security"took effect on January 10, 2000 and a formal document was published in the weekly military supplement Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie on January 14, 2000. The Concept document warns that nuclear attack by Russia might be "forthcoming to repel armed aggression if all other means of resolving a crisis have failed."(2)
Suicide operations are nearly impossible to prevent after the terrorists have commenced the operation. The only certain way of disrupting a suicide attack is thus at the planning and preparatory phases. Suicide-capable terrorist groups spend considerable time recruiting, indoctrinating, training, mounting reconnaissance, rehearsing (mission-training on scale models to gain speed, stealth and surprise), arranging logistics (safe houses, transport and preparation of false identification), and communicating between the parent organisation and the operational cell.
As the success of any suicide attack depends on the terrorists‚ investment in these two initial phases, the best chance any government has of disrupting a suicide operation is to detect and neutralise the threat before the attack is launched.
The threat of airborne suicide terrorism has been steadily developing in the Middle East and Asia over the past two decades. Until the attack on the USA, Middle Eastern and Asian terrorist groups have focused on hijacking passenger airliners or acquiring and employing one or two-seater microlights to train, rehearse, refit explosives and strike targets. (3)
According to a copyrighted article by Alan Caruba:
"Headlines tell us of government predictions that al Qaeda may intend to mount an attack on the US this summer..."
In a recent Washington Times column by John McCaslin, he cited a poll by the National Association of Chiefs of Police. The poll revealed "that 95% of the nation's police commanders and security directors expect a 'catastrpohic' terrorist incident within the continental United States."
Alan Caruba reports the opinion of many counter terrorism experts is that al Qaeda will attack America again and many believe it will come before the election in November.
Caruba continues, "New York remains a prime target and there are recent reports of empty suitcases showing up in itssubways and other locations as a possible test run on the delivery of a WMD."
He also cites possible targets as Los Angeles, Hollywood, oil refineries and the US electrical grid, and the US Bapital Building while Congress is in session. (4)
FOOTNOTES
1. Daniel Schorr: "Dust off those reports on nuclear threats", Christian Science Monitor, November 23, 2001, http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/1123/p11s2-cods.html
2. Alistair Miller, Brian Alexander: "Uncovered Nukes: Arms Control and the Challenge of Tactical Nuclear Weapons", FourthFreedom.Org, November 30, 2001, http://www.fourthfreedom.org/Applications/cms.php?page_id=27
3. Rohan Gunaratna: "Terror from the sky", Janes.com, 24 September 2001, http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jir/jir010924_1_n.shtml
4. Alan Caruba: "The Next Attack on the US", MichNews.com, 26 May 2004, http://michnews.com/artman/publish/article_3809.shtml
End Notes.
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sean@homelandsecurityus.com
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