September 22, 2004
ORONO - When Kevin Knobloch, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists lies awake at night, it's not climate change or toxic pollution that keeps him tossing and turning, but a fear that one of the thousands of nuclear weapons that remain from the Cold War - or one of the new weapons that he predicts will result from United States policies - will someday be put to use. In the dark days after Sept. 11, 2001, early intelligence reports incorrectly indicated that an al-Qaida operative had stolen such a weapon and planned to detonate it in Manhattan, where it would have killed a half-million people instantly, and left hundreds of thousands more to suffer the effects of radiation poisoning.
That "crime of historical proportions" never occurred, but the danger remains very real, Knobloch said, speaking at the University of Maine Tuesday afternoon.
Such an incident could wreak "a devastation that makes Sept. 11 a footnote in American history," yet his group believes that recent policy changes aimed at protecting Americans from terrorism could actually increase the potential danger from "outlaw regimes," by encouraging worldwide nuclear proliferation, he said.
Today, 6,000 American weapons remain ready to be fired within a moment's warning, with another 4,000 in storage and ready for deployment in a matter of months. Russia has a few less weapons on standby, but more in storage, and many tons of stored enriched uranium that is not well-protected.
Recently, President George W. Bush has moved forward with a treaty stating that both the United States and Russia would reduce their deployed weapons to 2,000 - still a substantial number considering the fact that just 600 weapons could devastate either nation, Knobloch said.
"It's not what it could be, but it's a step [forward], and the president deserves credit," he said.
But the president also has said that an arsenal of improved weapons, like so-called "mininukes" a third the size of the bomb used at Hiroshima, and the controversial "robust nuclear earth penetrator" (known more commonly as the bunker-buster) is necessary to ensure domestic security in these uncertain times.
President Bush's doctrine of pre-emption against non-nuclear nations, his advocacy for restoring the nation's nuclear testing program (halted in a treaty with the Russians in 1992), and his desire to develop new American weapons only encourage other nations to seek out these materials and develop weapons for their own protection, Knobloch argued.
Today, only the United States, Russia, France, England, Israel, India, Pakistan and China are known to have nuclear weapons, though other nations, including Iran and North Korea, are believed to have some nuclear weapons technology. For any nation to continue developing nuclear weapons while telling other nations they cannot acquire this symbol of power is hypocritical, he said.
"The policies coming out of this administration seem to be aimed at starting a nuclear arms race," Knobloch said.
The Union of Concerned Scientists, founded in 1969 - in part because of a growing nuclear threat - is a nonpartisan group made up of professional scientists from all disciplines and will not endorse a presidential candidate. Rather, their concerns are based on analyses developed by their team of scientists, often taking aim at both parties.
"We're equal opportunity criticizers," Knobloch said Tuesday.
However, nuclear defense has become a somewhat partisan issue in Washington. Maine's U.S. Reps. Tom Allen and Mike Michaud, both Democrats, have opposed the president's policies, while Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins have supported the White House's call for a new arsenal. Neither senator could be reached for comment Tuesday night, though both have previously asserted their support for a strong national defense.
Knobloch argues that safety can only be ensured by reducing the number of deployed weapons, if necessary by negotiating with rogue nations, and by working to guarantee that those existing in stockpiles are well-guarded and safely stored.
"No matter how many nuclear weapons we have, it won't stop a terrorist who gets his or her hands on [one] from using it," he said.
For more information about the Union of Concerned Scientists, visit their Web site at www.ucsusa.org.
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