Intellegence Info Warns of Likely WMD Attack on CONUS
Jan. 5, 2004
WASHINGTON, DC: The U.S. intelligence community remains concerned that a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) attack using chemical weapons will be launched against CONUS (Continental United States) in the near future, with small, well-defined and easily accessible targets most at risk.
In various reports, the intelligence community has noted that for many Middle Eastern terrorist groups, the use of WMDs are no longer considered a last-resort option and could be used at any time the desired effect of a WMD is needed.
In the past, the use of chemical weapons in particular have resulted in limited casualties. Adulterated sarin gas was used in the 1995 Tokyo subway system attack resulting in limited number of deaths and several thousands sickened.
Despite British think-tank assessments to the contrary (1) ERRI senior analyst Clark Staten said that no lesss than Usama Bin Laden himself has previously condoned the acquisition and deployment of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). (2) Staten said that documents recovered at Al-Qaeda safe-houses and training bases in Afghanistan suggest a strong interest to obtain and use Chemical, Biological, Nuclear, and Radiological (CBRN) weapons. To make matters worse, Staten said that the convergence of WMD's and the increasing use of "suicide homicide/suicide" attackers is likely to increase the threat of some sort of use of CBRN weapons. (3)
U.S. intelligence believes that, if given the chance, Al-Qaeda would take the opportunity to use CBRN agents. Many experts agree that problems still exist for terrorist groups to deliver chemical agents to their targets, but they also agree that an attack on CONUS was still likely in the near future regardless.
According to the FBI, various Palestinian, Islamic groups and extremist groups within the U.S. and Europe are most likely to use chemical weapons. Similar groups in South America and Western Europe were unlikely to do so, intelligences sources told
EmergencyNet News.
In order of likelihood of occurrence (as determined by an ERRI WMD threat assessment) :
1> Conventional Explosives
2> Chemical
3> Biological
4> Nuclear**
* Other -- Cyberwar/Netwar/Infrastructure Attacks (probably used in concert with other weapons)
** Also, please note that the likelihood of use of an (RDD) Radiation Disposal Device is approximately equal to that of conventional explosives. It requires little additional expertise more stealing a radioactive sources and adding it to a conventional car bomb or IED (improvised explosive device). The placement of an thermonuclear (nuclear) device as the least likely type of attack is based on the more remote possibility of guerilla development of an actual "atomic bomb."
Reference:
1. "UK THINK-TANK RELEASES SURVEY ON "WMD" TERRORISM," can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/1999/ukterrpt.htm
2. "Zubaydah Says Al-Qaeda Can Build a Dirty Bomb," can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/Hzmtpage.htm#rdd2
3. "Change in Terrorism Tactics Reported; Suicide Bombers Could Have Major Implications" can be found at: http://www.emergency.com/2002/suicide_implications.htm
http://www.emergency.com/ennday.htm