March 29, 2004
by Gordon Thomas

The "real and present" reality of Australia being the next terrorist target for al Qaeda is contained in a large, brightly lit and windowless room in London. In its closely guarded confines, Australia is listed in the top five targets. It comes after the United Kingdom and the United States and is followed by Japan and Poland.

All those countries are key elements in what President George Bush has called "the coalition of the willing" who fought the Iraq war and now are trying to control the country.

The Australian targets include the Sydney Opera House, government buildings in Canberra and major sporting events.

They have been identified by those who work in the room which is accessed by a swipe card whose codes change regularly. The people who work behind the unmarked door deep inside the MI6 headquarters overlooking the River Thames are like no other of the 2,000 staff employed in the other multi-layered departments.

The room houses the Terrorist Attack Assessment Centre (TAAC). Inside its computer-lined walls and state-of-the-art communications systems, the groups of men and women work at work stations round the clock. Information flows in and out of their modems from other MI6 departments and the service's overseas stations around the world.

TAAC is directly linked to the Pentagon and the CIA in Washington. Both have their versions of TAAC. There is also a secure link to Australia's intelligence service.

The MI6 department regularly updates its director-general, Sir Richard Dearlove. He informs the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) in Whitehall. From there the information goes to prime minister Tony Blair in Downing Street. In Washington, the president George W Bush is similarly briefed through his National Security Adviser, Condoleeza Rice.

Since the Madrid Massacre there has been a significant increase in the traffic - including the threat posed to Australia.

That threat has now designated Australia as a "maximum risk" assessment target to be discussed at a joint European Community intelligence crisis meeting on Friday (March 20).

"What is particularly worrying for Australia is that some of the world's most virulent jihadists are working in countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. And in that area are enough weapons of mass destruction - chemical and biological weapons and nuclear materials - to produce a 'dirty bomb'", the respected Foreign Policy Research Institute in the Unites States has concluded.

The threat to Australia following the Madrid Massacre has been assessed in two areas. Firstly, there is Australia's overall support for the War against Iraq. Secondly, it is the current presence of Australian troops in Iraq.

Until recently, bin Laden's speeches have been thick with Islamic rhetoric. But the threat he issued on his latest tape last October was crystal clear.

"Let the transgressors know that we reserve our right in responding where and when we see appropriate against all countries that participated in this unjust was against Iraq."

Australia was named as among those countries who should expect "retribution".

MI6's TAAC believes that an attack would probably use either chemical or biological weapons.

"While Australia's border controls are better than most other countries in the region, they still need beefing up", said one of Europe's leading anti-terrorist analysts, Professor Paul Rogers, who lectures on peace studies at Bradford University in Britain.

But what concerns TAAC and US intelligence services are the links between terror groups like al Qaeda and former Eastern European intelligence services officers who now act as well-paid "advisers" and "consultants" to groups like al Qaeda.

Ted Gunderson, a former senior FBI officer who now runs an international security agency, believes there is "credible evidence to show that former Eastern Bloc intelligence agents have been bought-up by rogue states and terror groups to provide their expertise.

"Before the collapse of the Soviet empire, those agents worked closely on behalf of their government with groups like Hezbollah and the PLO. When al Qaeda came on the scene, they just transferred their services for more money. That's how it works in that world. 'You pay - we show you' is the motto", said Gunderson from his office in California.

The respected Norwegian Defence Research Establishment - one of Europe's leading intelligence think-tanks - this week warned that the further Europe is away from its Madrid attack, the closer it is to the next.

This week reports reaching TAAC included the latest information of al Qaeda recruitment in France.

"It now stands at an estimated 35,000 to 40,000 and they are being organised in military style units. They meet regularly for training in the use of weapons and explosives, combat tactics and indoctrination. They are controlled from local and district command centres under the organisation's national French command", states part of the French report.
Germany's BND, based in Pullach in Bavaria, said in its report to TAAC that al Qaeda now numbers "around 30,000".

A confidential report from Mossad headquarters at Schipol Airport in Holland states: "those recruited are whites only who have converted to Islamic faith. They are trained in small groups. They switch their cell phones all the time. Tracking them down is getting harder every day."

"With their EU passports and easy border crossing access, they are a threat that will be almost impossible to combat until they strike", said a Home Office official in London.

To help track them, MI5 have created a special department in the aftermath of the Madrid Massacre. It is called M-90. Like TAAC, it is surrounded by secrecy. But part of its work is to try and infiltrate the estimated 10,000 recruits al Qaeda now has in Britain.

A number of these terrorists are being readied to travel to Iraq. Inevitably their targets would include Australian troops.

Osama bin Laden has branded them as "infidels" along with all the other Coalition forces. And in his last video monologue, he has included Australia in his litany of targets he will attack.

A further target is believed now to be the Pope - following John Paul's outright condemnation of the atrocity in Madrid.

In the past, there have been other attempts to assassinate the Pope by terrorists. One was Mehmet Ali Agca in St Peter's Square in May 1981. The Pope barely survived and his ailing health today can be partly traced to the internal injuries he received.

Both the CIA and European intelligence services warned the Vatican last week that an attack on the Pope should not be ruled out, possibly as soon as this Easter.

"As a target, the Pope fits the requirements for 'a spectacular'. He is a world figure. He represents all that al Qaeda hates - Christianity, peace and a world united in love", explained Colin Williams, an anti-terrorist analyst.

Italian intelligence services have told me that since the Madrid attack, the Vatican has tightened up its security. All its entrances are guarded by armed plain-clothes agents. There are armed guards also inside the Apostolic Palace.

"The problem we have is that the Holy Father does not like all this security. He still refuses to wear a bullet proof vest in public. He still insists on using his Pope-mobile. It can offer no protection against a suicide bomber", said an Irish priest working in the Vatican.

The Madrid bombings have moved al Qaeda to another level - with its sensational political results in Spain. Not only has bin Laden succeeded in changing that country's political landscape, but is also going to force its troops out of Iraq.

Another attack would have a further serious effect on President Bush's election chances in November. And America's constant promise it will soon capture bin Laden ignores the truth that even if he ends up being captured like Saddam Hussein, it will not stop al Qaeda - any more than the arrest of Saddam has halted the attacks in Iraq.

Madrid may embolden the bombers to strike elsewhere. And Australia is now a prime target.


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