June 30, 2004
London: Al-Quds al-Arabi in Arabic 25 Jun 04 p 3 [Unattributed report, datelined Amman: "The Iraqi Resistance is planning to obstruct flights and halt transport of oil. Saudi Arabia is worried about contacts between Iran and the Shi'ites of Kuwait and Bahrain. Some 3,000 Iranian intelligence personell who hold Iraqi identity cards are in southern Iraq"]
The Iraqi Resistance is preparing for what it says is a decisive and basic battle for the control of Baghdad in the next two days. Reports say that the groups of Ba'thist resistors have become active recently. They appeared to be in control of positions along the streets of Baghdad during the night, thus compelling the US forces to implement plans devised for US withdrawals throughout the night and a return to exercise control over the streets during the daytime.
The Iraqi Resistance appears to be following a systematic plan, not to prevent the handover of power on 30 June 2004 but to benefit from such a handover and to invest in it militarily and in practice, especially as the substitute Iraqi security forces will not be logically and militarily ready to take over the occupiers' positions. The interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, has hinted at that several times.
In line with those tactics, sources close to the Iraqi Resistance have leaked to Al-Quds al-Arabi information to the effect that a fierce battle will be waged with the aim of controlling Baghdad or large sections of the city in the next few hours and prior to the date of handing over power. With the efforts that will be made to restrict the movement of military and civilian flights over Baghdad, the Resistance is at the same time planning to continue to strike at oil pipelines and installations and obstruct the production and transport of oil completely next week when the hand-over of power will take place, all within the framework of an integrated strategy to exploit the objective reality and harass the occupiers and their aides who will take over power.
The plan includes preventing civilian flights in the Baghdad area in the next few days and compelling the US forces not to risk running patrols in the streets and between the neighborhoods. The same information indicates that these arrangements have actually begun in coordination among the Resistance's secret commanders in more than one Iraqi city and position. The way has been paved for what Resistance literature calls the Battle of Baghdad with bold and repeated skirmishes with the occupation forces in the cities of the Sunni triangle, and specifically with the cities and population centers west of Baghdad. This is confirmed by the developments that have taken place in the past four days in Al-Ramadi, Al-Anbar, and the surrounding villages.
It is believed that the heavy US aerial bombardment of several positions in Al-Falujah is a preventive US measure following the receipt of conflicting intelligence. Although the US forces claim they are bombing the positions of hard-line terrorists, yet their strikes target what the Americans believe to be secret meetings of the coordination commanders in the Iraqi national resistance, which includes Ba'thists and others.
The wagers are on the battle of Baghdad creating a clear breach in the strategy of the handover of power at the critical moments, thus establishing foundations for the general resistance plan to exploit the few moments, minutes, and hours on the sidelines of the handover of power.
Together with the resistance operations in places such as Al-Falujah and Al-Ramadi, efforts are focused on Mosul as well, with the aim of bolstering the morale of the resistors, confusing the Americans, and suggesting that the coordination covers a wide area of Iraq.
In parallel with that, Al-Quds Al-Arabi's sources have pointed out that the police stations that were attacked recently in Mosul and other locations were exclusively police stations that were completely free of Ba'thist elements, which, in their majority, form the new elements in the security apparatus that was established and formed by the US occupiers, while many police stations and centers belonging to the security forces where there are scores of Ba'th Party cadres in police uniforms have not been hit.
It appears that the resistance forces that have intensified their activity against the police distinguish between the police stations that include Ba'thist personnel and others in which there are no Ba'thists. Unofficial reports previously said that the resistance leaders earlier ordered hundreds of Ba'thists, and specifically Ba'thists in the former security forces of the Saddam Husayn era, to register again in police registers, while specifying some police stations and excluding others for registration. That very simply means the military operations which targeted the police stations were pre-planned.
It seems that this tendency signifies that orders were issued on an earlier date to hundreds of Ba'th Party personnel to wear the uniforms of the present police force in the hope that such a move would enhance the presence of the Ba'th Party and the resistance on the sidelines of the handover of power on 30 June 2004.
Al-Quds al-Arabi has also learned that the former minister of defense, Sultan Hashim, has recently reaffirmed his rejection of a US request to take over the command of the new Iraqi Army that is being established. However, the Americans have refrained from imprisoning Sultan Hashim, who is greatly respected in Iraq, in the hope that he will be prepared to take over the command of the army once they hand over power and begin with their plans for military withdrawal from Iraq.
Within the same framework, the United States has informed, through diplomatic channels, several capitals neighboring Iraq that it feels great anxiety as a result of increased Iranian military activity along the border with Iraq, and that Washington has asked Tehran officially not to exploit the anarchy in Iraq to impose any facts on the ground. It has also asked for clarification of the reasons for the massing of Iranian troops on the border. Iran replied saying that these are routine military moves to protect the border and have no other purpose.
Several recent reports say that Iran at present is deploying six divisions along the border with Iraq. Intelligence estimates indicate that Iran is planning to deploy at least 20 military divisions in those border areas, thus arousing the fears and ire of the Arabian Gulf states and specifically Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has recently monitored contacts and exchanges of letters between the Iranian government and local community leaders in Shi'ite areas and population centers. That has caused increased anxiety in Riyadh. Moreover, both Bahrain and Kuwait have sensed similar contacts between Iranian figures and local Shi'ite representatives. Saudi and Kuwaiti security estimates refer to the presence of at least 3,000 Iranian security and intelligence personnel now inside Iraq -- and in its southern cities -- all of whom hold Iraqi identity cards.
No source submitted