July 18, 2004
Ben Kaspit
Maariv

The annual intelligence report presented to the security cabinet today (Wednesday) identifies the development of unconventional weapons in the Middle East as the most important existential threat to Israel. The report focused on Iran, both as the country most likely to acquire WMD capabilities, and as the biggest backer of terrorism.

The IDF is extremely concerned by Iran’s ongoing pursuit of nuclear capabilities and launching systems, such as the Shihab missile. Syria’s development of chemical and biological warheads is also a matter of grave concern, since such weapons could end up in the hands of Hezbollah.

The other main concern is the formation of an operational alliance between global and regional terrorism, specifically between al Qaeda and Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorist groups.

The new worries have displaced the traditional preoccupation with the neighboring countries. The IDF is by far superior to the armies of its potential enemies, such as Syria and Lebanon (Hezbollah). Despite the fact that Egypt, with whom Israel has a long-standing peace treaty, is continuously modernizing its army and especially the navy, at this stage Israel does not perceive it as a potential threat. On the other hand, the developments in Saudi Arabia are disturbing. In recent years, the Saudis have equipped their army with F-15s, Apaches, and sophisticated weapon systems. The main threat to Israel lies in the instability of the Saudi government and the penetration of al-Qaeda terrorists into its security establishment.

The IDF has already shifted its focus from investing into large armored battalions, necessary on the battlefield, to hi-tech advanced notice and prevention systems, which would allow it to combat the new threats.

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