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The evidence and a close look at the Earth's history point toward acts of nature as the culprit in the extraordinary events of the past few months, scientists say.

"If you look throughout the world in any give year you find mudslides, rock slides. "∫ It just so happens right now you are getting a conglomeration of unrelated things," said geophysicist Waverly Person of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Center in Denver.

"This is the regular type of thing that happens on the face of our Earth."

Thanks to technological advances, seismologists were able to log 30,000 earthquakes -- some highly seismic, some not -- in 2003. The 2004 total remains untallied but is expected to exceed 30,000.

Still, despite sophisticated monitoring equipment, historical data remains the only prediction tool.

"The faults are there, the plates are there -- earthquake history repeats itself," Person said.

Hurricanes, on the other hand, have more calculable predictions.

Atmospheric scientist Bill Gray and his staff at Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project predict a "slightly above average" 2005 hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. The projection also calls for an above-average probability of U.S. hurricane landfall in 2005, but not as bad as 2004.

"In general, we tend to see active periods for 30 years or so and then inactive periods of 25 to 40 years," said project research associate Phil Klotzbach. "Since we are 10 years into an active period, we can expect an active season."

Since 1995, most years have been active, with the exception of 1997 and 2002, which were inactive largely because of El Niño effects, he added. Cyclical warm Pacific Ocean temperatures create El Niño effects, which in turn result in significant changes in weather patterns in the United States.

Klotzbach describes hurricanes as a fairly complicated weather phenomenon driven by changes in ocean current. But simply stated, he said, warm ocean temperatures favor hurricanes.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists blame unusually warm Pacific Ocean surface waters, in this case a weak El Niño, for Southern California's heavy rain and mudslides.

Do humans play a role in global warming?

Whether human-influenced global warming measurably influences climate change remains a popular scientific debate that some say cannot be measured with only one century of solid, hard climate data.

Before World War I and the establishment of thousands of weather monitoring stations worldwide, scientists relied heavily on anecdotal evidence recorded in journals to establish records.

"If you go back and look at early records in England during the 15th and 16th centuries, the Thames froze," said Wilbur Hugli, a retired U.S. Air Force meteorologist and visiting University of West Florida professor.

"If we look back at the Middle Ages, extreme cold temperatures were recorded in Europe. Few stages in our history show warming."

Scientists have evidence showing that human and industrial processes can change the environment within certain limits, but without more comprehensive data, it's difficult to measure quantitatively, Hugli said.

Coincidentally, it's the same advances in data collection and more accurate, timely reporting of weather events that fuel talk of Armageddon, Hugli added.
But do sins against God really influence natural laws?

The Rev. Byron Jarvis of Gonzalez Baptist Church in Cantonment heard talk of the "end times," or second coming, on both religious and secular radio after the tsunami.

Jarvis believes humanity is in the "end times," and that God not only created Earth, but is its orchestrator.

"I believe that God is sovereign and is ultimately working out his purpose," he said.

And Jarvis looks to science to explain disasters set in motion by God's orders.

Even though Jarvis believes God sets catastrophic events in motion to get the attention of those who may be ignoring his guidance, as the Bible documents, Jarvis stops short of using God's judgment against a particular group.

Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Jews and Buddhists died in the Dec. 26 tsunami. Each religion, in its varying degrees, has fundamentalist believers who look to sins against God in explaining natural phenomenon.

"These people are driven by fear," said William Mountcastle, UWF philosophy and religion professor emeritus. "This universe is governed by natural laws unrelated to what people do."

Storms have been recorded throughout history, Mountcastle said.

He added: "Let us remember that we are bringing similar disaster, maybe killing as many, through willful, destructive action."

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