February 9, 2005
By Ken Kaye
Staff Writer

The strong high-pressure ridge that steered four hurricanes toward Florida last summer is still out there -- and could direct more storms our way this year.

"Right now, the pattern is very similar to what we had last year," hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. "So people should plan on this being another above-average season."

The ridge has already caused Palm Beach County to have its wettest month ever in September -- followed by the driest four-month period ever, from October through January. The result: Palm Beach and Broward counties are drying out, increasing fire danger.

Called the Bermuda High because it is centered over the small island, the ridge last year prevented hurricanes from turning north in the Atlantic, forcing them on a westerly track toward Florida.

Unless it breaks apart in the next few months, and it's unknown whether it will, the upcoming hurricane season, which starts June 1, again could be tense, forecasters said. In addition to Florida, the pressure ridge creates a threat for the rest of the lower U.S. coast.

Stewart emphasized it is extremely unlikely that four hurricanes will again batter Florida, as Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne did last year. Experts say that kind of catastrophe happens on average once every 100 to 200 years.

However, because the Atlantic basin has been in an active era since 1995, it would not be unusual to see two intense systems slam the state, Stewart said.

In an active era, warm water produces more major hurricanes than normal.

Historically, about a third of all major hurricanes, with winds greater than 110 mph, make U.S. landfall. Yet until 2004, only three had done so from 1995 to 2003, even though 32 major systems developed in the same period.

That luck ran out last year, and the odds don't look good this year, Stewart said. Still, he said, residents should not get caught up in seasonal forecasts but instead should prepare as though one powerful storm could hit.

"Our emphasis through the years has been: Be prepared because you can get an Andrew-type storm even in a quiet year, with devastating results," he said, referring to Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 system that tore apart south Miami-Dade County in 1992.

Because the Bermuda High ridge directed hurricanes Frances and Jeanne toward the south-central Florida coast, Palm Beach County saw 29.4 inches of rain in September, the wettest month ever in the county. That broke the previous monthly record of 27.81 inches, set in October 1910, according to meteorologist Jim Lushine, of the National Weather Service west of Miami.

Then, as cold fronts descended from the north, the ridge acted to weaken and deplete the county of rain, he said. The result: In October, November, December and January, a total of 4.83 inches of rain fell.

That broke the previous low record of 5.29 inches of rain, set in the same four-month period in 1970-71. It also was more than 13 inches below normal for the time period.

Why the ridge most dehydrated Palm Beach County is unknown -- and unusual because North Florida and even Miami-Dade County have seen their fair share of rain, Lushine said. Broward County also was dry in the past four months, though no records were broken.

"It's kind of strange," Lushine said. "There's a reason for it, but we don't know what it is."

The dry conditions have not yet caused water supply problems, officials said. So much rain fell in September that when averaged out, the past five months still saw 8.2 inches more rain than normal.

Meanwhile, another wave of cold air is predicted to roll over South Florida on Thursday night.

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7911.

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