January 27, 2005
By Simon Johnson
Source: Reuters

STOCKHOLM, (Reuters) - Water shortages and global warming will hit grain production and push up prices in the coming years, leading to unrest in countries unable to afford imports, the head of a leading think-tank said on Thursday.

Shortages of water due to rising population, added to the effects of global warming, will hit wheat, rice and maize supply, pushing up prices and leaving poor countries with no means to meet growing demand for food.

"Overpumping to supply the growing food needs of today almost guarantees a future reduction of food supply," said Lester Brown, head of the Washington based Earth Policy Institute.

Speaking on the sidelines of a seminar in Stockholm, Brown said a tightening in grain supplies would come "within the next few years, not 20 or 30 years from now".

Rice, which depends heavily on water, was likely to be the first crop affected.

Half the world's population lives in countries where water is an increasingly scarce commodity. Humans drink around four litres a day in one form or another, but the food they consume requires around 2,000 litres a day, he said.

Shortages of water and agricultural land are increasing the need for many countries, particularly in Asia, to import food.

China, for example, saw its grain production drop by around 70 million tonnes over the five years from 1998, partly due to water and land shortages, Brown said.

China imported around 7.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2004, a figure Brown said was likely to rise to more than 30 million tonnes over the next few years.

This means China will rely more on grain imports, particularly from the United States, the world's biggest grain producer.

"There will be a big line of ships across the Pacific," Brown said. "It will be one of the major foreign policy challenges in the new century."

It will also drive up grain prices sharply from current low levels.

China, with a large trade surplus with the United States, can afford to pay. But low income countries might find it hard be compete, sparking political instability, Brown said.

The world's population must be stabilised, water used more efficiently and greenhouse gas emissions cut, Brown said.

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