March 21, 2005
By MARY WOZNIAK
MWOZNIAK@NEWS-PRESS.COM


2005 HURRICANE FORECAST

Named Storms: 11 — Average 9.6
Hurricanes: 6 — Average 5.9
Intense Hurricanes: 3 — Average 2.3

• Probability for Major Hurricane (Category 3-5) hitting U.S. Coastline: 69%
• Average last century: 52%
• Probability for Major Hurricane (Category 3-5) hitting U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula: 49%
• Average last century: 31%

Source: Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2005, William M. Gray, Colorado State University

Florida may not become a bull's eye four times in six weeks like last year, but the forecast for 11 named storms and six hurricanes in the 2005 season is hardly reassuring.

As the 27th annual National Hurricane Conference opens today in New Orleans, hurricane experts and government officials charged with responding to a hit will dissect that forecast and lessons learned from 2004. They aim to come up with new and better ways to forecast, plan and respond.

Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, still believes that catastrophic loss of life and property from a major hurricane is possible if those in vulnerable areas remain unprepared.

"One of the lessons we learned from last season is that people who had a hurricane plan did better than people who did not have a plan," Mayfield said.

Vulnerable areas are usually described as coastal areas. But the 2004 season, with storms crisscrossing the Florida peninsula, showed that being inland doesn't necessarily mean insulation from hurricane winds.

Neither does a less than active year. The 1992 season is a perfect example of the fact that if you live anywhere in Florida, you must be prepared, Mayfield said. That was a year of only six tropical storms or hurricanes, "including one called Andrew that did $33 billion worth of damage," he said. Now reclassified as a Category 5, Andrew was the most costly hurricane ever to hit the United States.

Five years ago, Mayfield predicted that continued growth on the coasts and inflation will "almost certainly" result in future landfalling hurricanes replacing the current top five costliest U.S. hurricanes. In 2004, his prediction began coming true. Hurricanes Charley, Ivan and Frances now take spots No. 2, 3, 4 on the costliest list, right after Hurricane Andrew. The former No. 2, Hugo, which struck in 1989, drops to No. 5 at $7 billion. Hurricane Jeanne from 2004 is a close sixth at $6.9 billion.

Mayfield's "new, real concern" is storm surge, which can cause the most threat to life and property in a hurricane. The surge is a huge mound of water that can be up to 100 miles wide, hitting the coastline near where the hurricane eye makes landfall.

"A cubic yard of water, at 1,700 pounds, comes in with wave action like a bulldozer. I don't care how well built your house is, if that storm surge comes in ... you have a problem," Mayfield said.

Southwest Florida is particularly vulnerable to storm surge because of shallow water offshore, Mayfield said. The surge depends on the slope of the continental shelf. The stronger the hurricane and the shallower the water is offshore, the higher the surge.

Charlotte County missed a potentially devastating hit from a significant storm surge during Hurricane Charley because Charley's eye was compact, only five to six miles across, Mayfield said. That meant the storm surge was highly concentrated in a much smaller area, he said.

SIX COSTLIEST HURRICANES TO HIT THE U.S.

1. Andrew 1992 Category 5 $33 billion
2. Charley 2004 Category 4 $15 billion
3. Ivan 2004 Category 3 $14.2 billion
4. Frances 2004 Category 2 $9 billion
5. Hugo 1989 Category 4 $7 billion
6. Jeanne 2004 Category 3 $6.9 billion
Source: National Hurricane Center Archives

The upcoming storms of the 2005 season are part of an active storm period that began 10 years ago, which corresponds with warmer than usual waters in the Caribbean and North Atlantic, said Chris Landsea, a top researcher for the National Hurricane Center. This cyclical period of activity is expected to continue for 25 to 40 years, he said.

That means we have another 15 to 30 years left.

"In general, when more strong hurricanes are out there, the chance of a hit goes up. It's like having more arrows in your quiver," Landsea said.

But where will the landfalls be? That's the major push of recent research, he said.

Florida has had direct hits by 30 major hurricanes since 1900; 27 from 1900 to 2000, and three since the year 2000, all in 2004. But only six major ones have hit the United States since 1995.

Scientists are looking for hurricane indicators. One indicator is the position of the Bermuda High, a subtropical ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic that helps steer hurricanes. Scientists want to know why it set up where it did in 2004 and pushed all those hurricanes toward Florida, Landsea said.

Hurricanes move slowly from east to west in low latitudes. Typically when they go around the Bermuda High, they turn north and toward the east, Landsea said

Before 2004, the Bermuda High was weaker and further east. In 2004, it was stronger and further west, batting hurricanes back down toward Florida and preventing them from going north.

Is the setup of the Bermuda High predictable? "We don't know," Landsea said.

Florida is still the number one state for major hurricanes. As for predicting a landfall in Southwest Florida?

"I would not venture a guess," said Landsea, who lives in Miami. "But I would have my shutters ready."

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