May 25, 2005
RICHARD L. HILL
The Oregonian
At 4 p.m. on the second Tuesday in July, a powerful offshore earthquake rocks the entire Northwest from Northern California to British Columbia. The magnitude 9 quake lasts four minutes, causing thousands of casualties.
Although the scary scenario in a new 24-page report by a group of scientists, planners and business leaders is fictitious, it's based on what its authors say is a realistic assessment of such a quake's impact on the region.
The earthquake could be "catastrophic" and "will certainly be larger than local or regional resources can respond to," the report states. It urges that education programs teach residents and visitors how to prepare for such an earthquake; high-risk buildings be retrofitted; key buildings such as hospitals, schools and fire stations be improved to withstand the shaking; and transportation infrastructure be upgraded.
For example, the report says that U.S. 101 could be rebuilt to current engineering standards "rather than continuing to be pieced together every winter after damage from rainstorms and landslides. This will give the coast a dependable transportation backbone on which to rebuild the future."
The report was prepared by the Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup, a partnership of more than two dozen Northwest businesses and government agencies. Many of the group's officials will discuss the recently released report today in Portland.
"The report is an effort to pull together into one place a realistic but not overwhelming scenario for what this might look like for the entire region," said Timothy Walsh, a Washington state geologist and a group member.
Jay Wilson, a group member and the earthquake and tsunami coordinator for the Oregon Office of Emergency Management, said the report is a "harsh reality check" that stresses what such a quake can do and the lengthy recovery time in its aftermath.
The report says the impact will vary depending on the distance from the quake: Coastal communities will be hit by strong shaking, landslides and tsunamis. Extensive injuries and fatalities will result. Buildings, roads, bridges and utilities will be damaged or destroyed, isolating towns and cities for weeks. Along the Interstate 5 corridor, the long period of shaking "could lead to significant fatalities in downtown areas." Electricity, telephone, water, sewer and natural gas services could be interrupted, perhaps for months. Landslides will block east-west travel through the Cascades. East of the Cascades, communities can expect a lower level of shaking but will feel the economic effects from the regional damage.
The report summarizes many of the scientific findings made in the past two decades about the magnitude 9 quakes that have repeatedly struck the Northwest coast, the last one in 1700.
Craig Weaver, the regional coordinator for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Program, said that "even after all the publicity of the scientific discoveries of the last few years, very little coordination of response across political boundaries has been done. Science alone never moves society much, and this document is seen as another way of trying to get a discussion started."
The report can be found on the Web at http://www.crew.org.
http://www.oregonlive.com/science/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/science/1117015631252140.xml&coll=7