February 28, 2005
World Threats
Washington DC, RPS -- The last two weeks Damascus has witnessed a series of events that are clearly having a toll on a regime already very brittle.
It all started when Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri was assassinated by the top Syrian intelligence people for having worked, behind the scene on passing UN Resolution 1559. Le Figaro, the French widely circulated newspaper, reported that Rustum al-Ghazzali, the Syrian intelligence man and the de facto ruler of Lebanon has, two weeks before Hariri was killed, put a gun to his head and asked him: "It is either Resolution 1559 or us!!".
Apparently, Al-Ghazzali has filed a report with Damascus saying that the killing of Hariri won't much affect the situation in Lebanon. BIG MISTAKE. This clearly shows how the Syrian government is not only out of touch in Syria but also in Lebanon. Al-Ghazzali may have been removed from his post and replaced by Lt. Colonel Jima'a Jima'a.
Since then, the Lebanese people have marched by the thousands against Syria's occupation of Lebanon in the streets of Beirut with another large and important march already under way this morning. The pro-democracy, anti-Syrian marchers have started arriving the night before to the Martyrs Square because the pro-Syrian Lebanese government was going to stop them from demonstrating by closing streets and main arteries into Beirut. Reports filtering from Beirut tell us that the Lebanese army is allowing the demonstrators to go through in defiance of a pro-Syrian government orders.
Further to that, two petitions signed by 200 Syrian intellectuals that included human rights lawyer Anwar Al-Bounni in Damascus and Birhan Ghalioun in Paris, were delivered to Al-Assad and the media asking the Syrian government to leave Lebanon. This added to the amount of pressure the Syrian government was experiencing from all corners. Can this be the beginning of a Syrian uprising?
Faced with mounting pressures from every corner of the earth for the killing of a peaceful man who rebuilt his country after a devastating civil war, the Syrian government announced Feb. 24 that it is pulling back its troops to the Beka'a valley in accordance with the Taif agreement, which called for Syria to leave Lebanon in accordance with a timetable and an agreement with the Lebanese government. Two days into the announcement, the Syrian government has not yet started re-deploying. This is the sixth time that Syria announces to re-deploy and fails to do so.
In 2000, Minister Marwan Hamade presented Hariri with a speech he wrote in which he said the words "In accordance with the Taif Agreement". Hariri tore that page and told him "Do you want us killed?". the "TAif Agreement" was not even allowed to be mentioned in 2000.
Reports filtering from Damascus the last few days shows a government in disarray. No one seems to know what they are doing. The new ministers, recently appointed by Baschar al-Assad, are over their heads. Confused and nervous is the best way to describe the government of Assad today. Ripe for the picking.
The Lebanese pro-Syrian government is under siege as well. The prime minister Omar Karami has made several PR blunders the last few days that clearly showed the Lebanese people the extent to which the Syrian government is really in control. Karami said that the Lebanese army is not capable of protecting Lebanon and that is why we need the Syrian army. That really galvanized the Lebanese even further when their own prime minister shows no trust in his own government or parts of it. Later, he said that we need the Syrian army to disarm the opposition groups. The same groups who are marching peacefully against the Syrian occupation. One can imagine what effect this has on the opposition against Syrian occupation lead by Walid Jumblatt.
Stories filtering to RPS also indicate that the Syrian intelligence is working on recruiting Palestinian fighters in the Neirab Refugee Camp outside Aleppo to send to Beirut. The intent is to flare things up in Lebanon in the hope of showing that without the Syrian army, Lebanon is not safe.
Then on Feb. 25 four young Israelis are killed by a suicide bomber in Tel Aviv. According to Joshua Landis, Assistant Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma now living in Damascus, the Islamic Jihad in Damascus called the AP reporter and claimed responsibility. Hours later, they called again and said they did not do it. Too late, the story was out and the Israeli government held Damascus responsible.
Yesterday, the Syrian threw a carrot to the Americans when they delivered one of many Ba'athists operating out of Syria against the Iraqi government. By doing that, they hoped that the US will simply stop pressuring the regime. All indications are that this is the time to increase further the pressure since the government has faltered and is starting to make good on premises they made 2 years ago. Damascus is till far from delivering everything the United States has asked her to, but it seems the buckling by the Syrian government is helping.
Delivering Sabhawi, the half-brother to Saddam, does not mean Syria will stop helping the insurgents. Just the opposite, they will increase the tempo to tell the United States that they can still cause havoc if the United States does not stop the pressure. At the end of the day, Syria does not want to leave Lebanon in exchange for a calmer Iraq and less terrorism. The US is not biting.
Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post reported that there is a new delegation by the Israeli Defense Ministry visiting Europe to show the European governments proof that Syria is behind the bombing in Tel Aviv.
Syrian Ba'athists are hosts to many more Iraqi leaders that openly meet in Damascus to plan terrorism against a democratic Iraq. They are funding operations and training killers to behead people as the New York Times story published on Feb. 24 shows. They have killed Rafik Hariri in Lebanon and more recently were behind the suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. They are the most destructive people in the Middle East and will continue to destabilize the region for two goals: Stay in power and stay in Lebanon.
In in interview today to La Republica, an Italian newspaper, Assad said: "From a technical viewpoint, the repatriation (of Syrian forces) could happen within the end of the year. But from a strategic viewpoint, it will only happen if we get serious guarantees". The guarantees he is talking about spin around the Assads staying in power forever as oppressive rulers.
Peace means guarantees to stay in power, something the United States is not about to give because of oppression in Syria. Assad should understand by now that his goals are exactly the opposite of the goals of the United States for a safer country, free from another 9/11.
http://www.worldthreats.com/middle_east/Damascus%20Faltering.htm