June 1, 2005
By John W. Schoen
MSNBC
Photo: Though California has added generating capacity since its power meltdown in 2001, transmission bottlenecks remain.
With forecasts calling for hotter-then-normal temperatures, the nation’s power grid will be put to the test again this summer. While most parts of the country should have adequate supplies, ongoing transmission bottlenecks continue to leave some regions vulnerable to blackouts or sharp rate increases.
Demand for electricity is expected to rise by nearly 6 percent this summer, with generating capacity up 7.4 percent, according to the North American Reliability Council, an industry group. So for most parts of the country, generating capacity is expected to meet demand -– even on the hottest days of summer.
But the availability of electrical power –- and the price you pay for it -- depends heavily on where you live. Despite strong investment in new generating capacity in the past few years, the nation’s power grid is still a patchwork of smaller markets based on regional power lines that were never designed to move electricity coast-to-cast.
“On average, the country has done rather well in terms of building generation capacity,” said Bryan Lee, a spokesman for the Federal Energy Regulatory commission. “The problem is that you need transmissions lines to get that capacity often where its needed.”
Forecasting peak demand during the summer months -– especially on the hottest afternoons when commercial and residential air conditioners kick in all at once -– depends most heavily on predicting the duration and timing of the hottest heat spell in August. And this summer is shaping up as a hot one. Long-range weather forecasters at the National Weather Service think this summer will be and hotter than normal in much of the Southeast, Southwest, Texas, California and Alaska – and cooler than normal in the northern plains states.
But federal officials are already warning of higher prices and possible blackouts -- energy officials prefer to call them “controlled outages” -- in some parts of the country.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8063259/