March 29, 2005
By JOHN CRUDELE
NY Post
THE Bush Administration proudly boasts that 2.2 million new jobs were created last year. But a tally of the 50 states comes up with a number that's 340,000 jobs shy of that figure.
Worse, even the lower state number is probably unrealistically high. The number of jobs that were really created last year is anyone's guess. And until there's an in-depth study years from now, the true figure probably won't be known.
But according to figures that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics pulls together through estimates based on its surveys — which is like guesses based on guesses — there were 132.58 million jobs in this country last year, up from 130.37 million in 2003.
In case you don't have a calculator handy that's a gain of 2.21 million.
But according to the numbers provided by the states, there were 132.11 million jobs in the country in 2004, up from 130.24 million at the start of the previous year. That's a gain of only 1.87 million jobs.
The difference is 340,000 jobs, which is 15 percent below the official boast number.
Here's the funny part — at least it is funny if you aren't somebody looking for work. Both of those numbers - the 2.21 million job gain and the slimmer 1.87 million increase — are official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tallies. And if you look at the BLS Web site (www.bls.gov) you'll see both of these figures presented just a click away from each other.
The not-so-funny part is that the smaller job tally for the 50 states is probably too optimistic.
As I recently reported in this column, New Jersey said it had recounted job growth and decided that only 46,300 new positions opened up in the Garden State last year and not the 75,900 jobs it originally thought. That's 40 percent below the first guess.
For the record, Washington thinks New Jersey had 50,300 new jobs last year — no doubt gleaned from some formula as secret as Colonel Sanders' chicken recipe.
If all the other states trim job growth by the same amount as New Jersey (and I'm not saying they'll have to) that would mean the number of new positions was just 1.41 million.
I've saved these figures for this week on purpose. On Friday the government will announce the number of new jobs it thinks were created in March.
Folks, let me emphasize this: Washington is guessing at this number and it has very little relationship to the job market.
Even so, the financial markets will move sharply based on Friday's figure.
So hold onto your hats if you are anticipating the need to borrow money, or if you are investing in stocks or bonds.
Here's how the situation looks.
Wall Street is expecting job growth of 225,000 jobs and it thinks the unemployment rate will fall to 5.3 percent from 5.4 percent last month. Forget the rate of unemployment — it doesn't matter.
The key Friday is job growth. And that will depend on a little known — except to my readers — assumption that the government makes for jobs it thinks, but can't prove, are being created by newly formed companies.
The BLS calls this its Birth/Death ratio, in case you want to look it up.
March 2005's birth/death assumption should be larger than last year's 153,000, and these assumptions should get monstrously large in the April report and remain high during May and June.
As with last month's employment figure — the February figures that were announced in March — this assumption could cause Friday's job growth to exceed expectations.
What does that do to the financial markets?
If the number announced Friday is, as I expect, stronger than Wall Street expects, interest rates will jump sharply.
And while stocks might initially applaud a stronger job gain investors will ultimately realize that higher interest rates aren't good for corporate profits. Stocks will then retreat.
So if you are just an ordinary person looking to find out what's happening in the job market, you've learned the government has a tendency to sugarcoat the job picture.
But if you are an investor take this away with you: Friday's number could make your life a lot harder.
jcrudele@nypost.com
http://www.nypost.com/business/43321.htm