March 31, 2005
Bloomberg
Crude oil rose and gasoline and heating-oil surged to records on signs that U.S. refineries lack capacity to make enough fuel and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts predicted that oil could touch $105 a barrel.
Record prices have failed to curtail surging fuel consumption, the Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note. The firm's upper limit was $80 previously. U.S. supplies of gasoline and distillate fuels, such as diesel and heating oil, fell last week, according to an Energy Department report yesterday.
"Concern is growing that there will barely be enough fuel to meet growing global demand,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA in New York. "The world had cheap oil for years and the chickens are coming home to roost. Investment was deferred and China and India are now major users, which isn't going to change.''
Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.46, or 2.7 percent, to $55.45 a barrel at 11:46 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline for April delivery rose 2.99 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $1.625 a gallon in New York. Gasoline touched $1.633 a gallon, the highest since the contract began trading in 1984.
Crude oil in New York surged to $57.60 a barrel on March 17, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices are 54 percent higher than a year ago. Oil's average price of $50.02 over the past three months was the highest quarterly price on record. The average was up from $48.27 the previous three months and was the seventh straight quarterly increase.
Capacity Cushion
The high price would be necessary to "meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion,'' according to the report dated yesterday from Goldman Sachs analysts led by Arjun Murti.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark that futures are based on, will average $50 a barrel this year, 21 percent higher than the previous projection of $41.25, according to the report. Prices will average $55 a barrel in 2006, a 38 percent increase from the previous projection.
"It's equally likely that oil will touch $105 or $15 a barrel,'' said Jason Schenker, an analyst with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte. "It's not going to $105 without a major cataclysmic terrorist attack on significant oil infrastructure. It's not a rational expectation.''
In London, the May Brent crude-oil futures contract rose $2.24, or 4.3 percent, to $54.33 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent futures reached $56.15 a barrel on March 17, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1988.
'Attention Shifted'
"Crude oil supplies are rising but the products continue to fall,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. "Yesterday we sold off on the crude number but as the day progressed attention shifted to the products. It's an old story. We go down for a day or two and there is talk of a correction but the market comes right back again. That's been the case for more than a year.''
U.S. crude-oil stockpiles gained 5.4 million barrels, or 1.7 percent, to 314.7 million in the week ended March 25, the biggest increase since October, the Energy Department report showed. Gasoline supplies fell 2.9 million barrels to 214.4 million last week.
Contract Expiration
The April gasoline and heating oil futures contracts expire today. Heating oil for April delivery rose 3.84 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $1.645 a gallon in New York. Prices touched $1.65, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1978. Prices are 86 percent higher than a year ago.
"The contracts are expiring today so this is the last chance to get products for April delivery, which is sending prices higher,'' Schenker said.
Retail gasoline prices have gained as refiners pass on their higher costs. Pump prices for regular grade gasoline, averaged nationwide, rose 0.6 cent to a record $2.159 a gallon yesterday, according to the AAA, formerly the American Automobile Association.
U.S. gasoline demand peaks between Memorial Day in late May and the Labor Day holiday in early September, when motorists take to the highways for vacations.
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