by Brian Harring
Note: In July of 2004, from a Russian source, we received a lengthy translation of a Chinese military appraisal document concerning massive U.S. Naval actions in both Asian and Persian Gulf waters. On October 11, we printed a warning from a White House correspondent concerning pending plans for a joint Israeli/US attack on Iran., selected excepts of which are printed here: October 10, 2004: “We are about to embark on another war
Yes, it has been decided and carefully planned. Who are we going to war with? Iran.
Thesis: Iran hates the United States and Israel. Iran has atomic weapons and missiles (the Shahab, courtesy of North Korean/Russian technicians) It can easily reach Tel Aviv. It can also reach US troop concentrations in Iraq. Israel is scared shitless. Their pressure groups have leaned on the White House, with a great deal of assistance from Cheney and the Neocons. The actual plan is this:
The U.S. has no troops available for an Iranian adventure and the Israelis would rather not lose any warm bodies so…it has been firmly decided that both Israel and the U.S. will launch a surprise attack against 1., Iranian missile sites, 2. Iranian nuclear facilities and 3. the leadership of Iran located in and around Tehran. How will this be done? By aircraft attack using U.S. developed “smart bombs” and the so-called “bunker-buster” bombs designed to destroy underground reinforced concrete facilities .We just sent these to Israel. Because of the political ramifications, the Israelis will conduct the main strikes, supported by U.S. aircraft as needed. The aim will be to wipe out any vestige of nuclear weaponry, its delivery system and all the Iranian leaders capable of starting any attacks on Israel (mostly Tel Aviv…too many fellow Muslims in Jerusalem
the super carrier USS John F. Kennedy (CV 67) is now in the Persian Gulf along with the so-called Essex Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) [31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) (SOC)] which consists of:: USS Essex (LHD 2) USS Juneau (LPD 10) USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) USS Mobile Bay (CG 53USS Hopper (DDG 70) USS Preble (DDG 88) The initial attacks will be an early-morning surprise attack launched to coincide with religious services in Tehran’s Muslim mosques with the idea of catching not only the leading Mullahs inside but a large number of their congregations as well. One attack will concentrate on these religious centers and the other will hit both the underground nuclear facilities and identified (courtesy of U.S. satellite shots) missile launching sites. The U.S. will supply observation and radio surveillance aircraft with radar-jamming capacities operating out of Turkey and Italy. The entire attack is scheduled to last no more than one hour with at least three waves of Israeli aircraft utilized. No warning will be given to the Iranians and no declaration of war.
Here are selected sections of the Chinese evaluation:
July 5, 2004
(Translation from the Chinese by M.V. Suslov)
“The United States Administration is launching a massive show of force in the Pacific Ocean near the PRC as a deliberate provocation to Beijing.
In an exercise codenamed Operation Summer Pulse 04, it is expected to arrange for an unprecedented seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CSGs) to rendezvous in waters a safe distance away from the territorial waters of the PRC - but still within striking distance - after mid-July.
This will be the first time in US naval history that it sends seven of its 12 CSGs to just one region.
Almost 18,000 military personnel from seven nations will be engaged in combined and joint operations in the waters surrounding the Hawaiian Islands in June. The official American stated purpose of exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2004 is to improve multinational cooperation and interoperability between allies.
Forty now identified ships from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Chile are testing their capabilities in a show of international presence, from a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the specialized technology of minesweepers. Seven submarines and 100 aircraft are also identified as being part of the month-long exercise, which will conclude July 27.
According to a report from the American Department of Defence delivered to Japanese naval command, Summer Pulse is to test out a new Fleet Response Plan (FRP) aimed at enhancing the American Navy's combat power and readiness in a time of crisis.
The FRP calls for the dispatching of six 'forward deployed' or 'ready to surge' CSGs to a trouble spot within 30 days, and an additional two within 90 days.
The signs point to a gathering of all seven CSGs in the Pacific.
The PRC’s analysis is that Summer Pulse is being mounted with it as the target audience, a suspicion reinforced by intelligence reports that Taiwanese forces are intended to join in the exercise.
Clearly, given Beijing's repeated warning that it will use force, as a last resort and whatever the cost, to stop Taiwanese independence, the US feels it needs to send Beijing a message.
From past deployment patterns, the US usually despatches one CSG to a trouble spot as a reminder of its presence.
It did so several times in the past when tension was high in the Taiwan Strait.
It sends two to indicate serious concern, as was the case when the PRC test-fired missiles over the strait in 1996.
In a combat situation, it deploys three to four, which was what it did in the Gulf War in the early 1990s and the recent Iraqi war.
But never before has it sent in peace time seven CSGs to the same theatre.
The implications for the PRC are grave.
The PRC can easily take on two CSGs, but there is no way it could face seven all at the same time.
This means that if the PRC has no choice but to wage war over Taiwan, it has to be able to land and seize control of the island within the first 30 days.
Otherwise, under the FRP, six CSGs may well arrive to join in the battle.
All this leaves the PRC with no choice but to start and end the war with lightning speed,
Politically, Summer Pulse is seen by military leadership of the PRC as naked intimidation.
This is gunboat diplomacy in the 21st century and forcefully remind the Chinese people of their century-long deep humiliation by Western powers - and put Sino-US relations at peril.”
Comment: A similar large carrier battle group is now in the process of taking up station in the Persian Gulf area. Herewith a translation of significant portions of a French report on the same subject but with a different perspective.
http://www.tbrnews.org/Archives/a1166