December 25, 2005
After I sent out the newsletter last night on Christmas Eve - another group of items came to my attention - so here - hours later on Christmas Day - I am sending you an update.
There is nothing magical about New Years - although 4 things do intersect on that day.
a. It is the end of the truce. b. It is the middle of Hanukkah. c. Morale and sobriety of American soldiers lower - being away from home on New Years. d. It is the dark of the moon - best for attackers.
One piece of important news - being bandied about in the Middle East. This is from the Muslim News Source Al Jazeera - http://tinyurl.com/c5wsg but it is nevertheless correct.
It is not exactly a declaration of war - but perhaps close enough. The US Congress - has in effect given the green light to Israel to attack the Palestinians.
US Congress (Vote 397-17) has said Israel does not need to try to negotiate with Hamas - (and certainly not with Hezbollah).
The U.S. Congress passed a resolution which rejects HAMAS' participation in the Palestinian parliamentary election, Reuters reported.
The resolution, passed 397-17, states that "Hamas should not be permitted to participate in Palestinian elections until it recognize Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state, cease incitement, condemn terrorism, and permanently disarm and dismantle their terrorists infrastructure."
It also threatens that any Hamas participation in the Palestinian government "will potentially undermine the ability of the United States to have a constructive relationship with or provide further assistance to the Palestinian Authority."
Israel, which warned that it will end the already stalled peace talks if Hamas becomes a dominant political party, welcomed the Congress' decision, and vowed to step up pressure on Palestinian President MAHMOUD ABBAS to ban Hamas from running in the January 25 poll.
Timing is everything. Because of this newsletter - I hear from a few people who think maybe nuclear WW3 will occur in the next few years.
I hear from many more who think in the next few months. I myself, think in the next few weeks - or even in the next few days.
Events are now occurring almost hourly. I cannot keep up with reporting them to you.
It appears to me that Israel's greatest concerns are:
1. That Russia has said that it is ready to ship new ABMs to Iran. 2. Iran is moving forwarded towards nukes. 3. Hezbollah has 75 longer distant missiles provided by Iran - that could reach the two refineries in Haifa. 4. Hezbollah has 10,000 rockets in Lebanon (from Iran and Syria). 5. Hamas has made gigantic wins in the Palestinian primaries. 6. The PA has lost control of Fatah and its own police so that orders are not being carried out. see:
http://tinyurl.com/adbsv
7. The increasing agitation coming out of Syria. 8. The end of the truce having been declared - and a new offensive being about to begin.
Others like the UN the Red Cross, various church organizations that were on the scene, other countries with diplomatic and consular presence - all see the coming confrontation - and are drawing down their personnel.
It all adds to the appearance that it is getting very close. Every day so far - some astounding news.
The inadequacy of the Hamas missiles has to be admitted. About a four mile maximum range - 50% misfire on launch - total inaccuracy, and about a 50% dud rate on impact.
However, the launch position has been moved forward with the Gaza evacuation and rumour has it that they are about to get an improved version with perhaps an 8-15 mile range.
Should that occur - the major Israeli concern is that an oil refinery a pumping station and a military camp then come in range.
This following news item at 09:35 25/12/2005 on Christmas Day.
http://tinyurl.com/dwehh
Senior IDF officer: Jihad improved Qassam rockets
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
A senior Israel Defense Force officer told Haaretz over the weekend that the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization has been upgrading their Qassam rockets, which the group fires on Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip.
On Saturday afternoon, militants fired a Qassam at Israel, but it landed within Gaza. Except for this incident, the Gaza border was relatively quiet over the weekend, in what was described as an unexpected lull.
The senior officer said that Islamic Jihad's shelling barrages during the past few weeks have been much more precise in finding their targets than in the past.
At the same time, however, the number of failed launches - where the rocket lands not far from its launch site, within the Gaza Strip - has also increased.
IDF personnel are impressed that Islamic Jihad is gradually closing the gap between their weaponry and that of Hamas, the organization that developed the rockets but lately has cut back on using them, military sources said.
Neither organization has yet succeeded in extending the rockets' range. The Qassam can travel a maximum distance of nine kilometers.
Some of the rockets that landed at the southern entrance of Ashkelon were fired from a distance of eight kilometers, originating in the evacuated settlements of Elei Sinai, Dugit and Nisanit.
Security sources believe Hamas is taking advantage of the relative calm in violence to focus on improving the Qassams' range. The sources said Hamas would soon be able to produce rockets with a range of some 15 kilometers.
Some 230 Qassams fired since the disengagement In the three and a half months since the IDF evacuated the settlements in the Gaza Strip and removed its bases from there, 230 incidents of Qassam fire have been recorded. In a significant portion of the incidents, more than one rocket was fired at a time.
This number, however, is still lower than the number of incidents recorded during the corresponding period before the implementation of the disengagement plan.
Security sources believe the decision to focus Qassam fire on the Ashkelon area comes from the highest levels of the Islamic Jihad in Damascus. According to Israeli intelligence sources, Islamic Jihad command in Damascus is consistently pressing militants in the Strip to continue launching rockets, primarily at "strategic targets" in the Ashkelon area, like the power station and the oil pipeline.
Deputy Defense Minister, MK Ze'ev Boim (Kadima) said in an interview with Army Radio on Friday that if Qassam fire continues, Israel will consider shelling Palestinian towns in the Gaza Strip and not just open areas.
--------- Presently, we are talking about maybe two rockets per day - with about one quarter - or one every other day - being at all effective.
Think if this were around your community. Say in an area 40 miles wide and 100 miles long - and that a rocket was landing every other day - with oil refineries and such about.
Now, think if this number were to increase to a couple hundred each day - along with a half dozen larger and more effective rockets.
That, as a minimum, is the Hamas / Hezbollah capability - which they are wishing to launch.
Should they do so - with the backing of Syria - from (through) whom they get their supplies - and if Israel were to retaliate - against Syria - and Iran were to support Syria - as they have pledged - well - you can see where this would be leading.
It really all comes back to Iran.
One news flash that came across this morning - was that Iran had rejected Russia's latest offer - to prepare its nuclear fuel.
(This is not really news - because all diplomats everywhere - now say that nothing is going anywhere - with Iran by means of diplomacy.)
Nevertheless, I did a search on news headlines for 'IRAN REJECTS' so as to include a source for you.
I found the following curious collection:
IRAN REJECTS 'any conditions whatsoever' in nuclear talks Mail & Guardian Online, South Africa - Dec 21, 2005 Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Wednesday Iran will "not agree to any conditions whatsoever" for the resumption of talks with the European ...
IRAN REJECTS ran rejects Elbaradei's security guarantees idea Middle East Online, UK - Dec 13, 2005 Iran's top nuclear negotiator says his country does not need condescending security guarantees from US. By Siavosh Ghazi - TEHRAN. ...
IRAN REJECTS 'US guarantees' over nuke United Press International - Dec 13, 2005 13 (UPI) -- Iran rejected Tuesday what it called "US economic guarantees" offered in return for Tehran's renunciation of its program for uranium enriching. ...
IRAN REJECTS US participation in nuclear talks People's Daily Online, China - Dec 4, 2005 Iran said on Sunday that the US involvement in the nuclear talks between Iran and the European Union (EU) would complicate the issue. ...
IRAN REJECTS US presence in nuke talks Al-Bawaba, Jordan - Dec 4, 2005 Iranday rejected the need of US presence in the Iran-Eun's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi o Surope nuclear talks saying, "Tehran believes ...
IRAN REJECTS 'any conditions' in nuclear talks NewKerala.com, India - Dec 21, 2005 Vienna: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Wednesday Iran would "not agree to any conditions whatsoever" for the resumption of talks with the ...
I presume that you get the message - that what Iran and the world rejects - is Peace - whether for good reasons or bad.
Yes, there are serious concerns elsewhere. Between Pakistan and India. China and Taiwan. Japan and North Korea. Throughout South America and the rest of the world the list goes on - but I am focused on this one - because I think this is where the conflagration will start that will set it all off.
Does - anyone have a match? Yes, many do.
Peace and love, Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org