May 3, 2006
Gazeta, Russia
The IAEA report on Iran presented to the Security Council yesterday turned out not to be too critical. The United States is nevertheless insisting that the United Nations sanction the start of military action in Iran as soon as possible. Russia and China continue to be against extraordinary measures. The two countries are likely to succeed in toning down the eventual Security Council resolution.
The IAEA report, compiled following 30 days of checks on Iranian nuclear sites, was sent electronically on Friday afternoon simultaneously to the UN headquarters in New York and the IAEA's Vienna office. Contrary to most analytical forecasts, the document proved not to be sharply critical, albeit on the whole negative. The full text of the report has still not been published. Having seen extracts from the document, however, the BBC produces a list of the key IAEA complaints against Tehran.
The main thesis in the report is that the checks carried out by the international inspectors in Iran confirmed the claims made this month by Tehran to have successfully enriched uranium. Accordingly, the main complaint against the Iranian leadership is that Tehran ignored UN Security Council demands at the end of March that it cease uranium enrichment, that it has done practically nothing to explain the purposes of its nuclear program, and that it did not allow the IAEA to check all its nuclear installations.
The report also says that Iran has used plutonium in laboratory experiments without informing the IAEA and has, in addition, failed to produce the specifications of its nuclear projects, particularly the details of the centrifuges and other equipment being used.
The Iranian side has notably called the ElBaradei agency's report "on the whole acceptable."
"The report contains no negative elements. It demonstrates that the agency is still capable of making an assessment of Iran's nuclear program," Iranian Atomic Energy Association deputy head Mahmud Sa'ideh stated on Friday. Moreover, Tehran has made it clear that it is prepared to continue cooperating with the IAEA on condition that the so-called Iranian nuclear file is returned from the UN Security Council to IAEA jurisdiction.
Russia and the PRC, which have lobbied consistently for a diplomatic settlement of the Iran crisis, have also seen no direct pretext in the IAEA report for immediate sanctions against Iran. "Russia's position on the Iranian nuclear problem has not altered: It should be resolved through the offices of the IAEA, which has all the necessary potential for doing so," Russian deputy permanent UN representative Konstantin Dolgov stated on Friday following the presentation of the ElBaradei agency report. "As for the UN Security Council, its main task is to provide political support for the IAEA's work," the Russian diplomat added. China's permanent UN representative, Wang Guanya, stated for his part that "all UN Security Council members should work for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear problem."
As expected, the United States and the European "troika" (Britain, Germany, and France), which have spent the past few months pushing the idea of punishing Iran with sanctions, have drawn contrary conclusions from the IAEA report. According to Euronews, Washington and London are intending to submit a tough draft resolution against Iran, invoking Chapter 7 of the UN Charter (which provides for the use of coercive measures including military force), to the UN Security Council as early as next week. "I think it is clear from the report that Iran has done nothing to implement the existing IAEA resolutions. It is obvious that Iran is stepping up efforts to obtain nuclear weapons," US permanent UN representative John Bolton has argued.
Despite the American side's tough statements, observers believe that the newly-begun consultations in the UN Security Council will end in the adoption of a moderately tough anti-Iran resolution, leaving out the points about using military force against Iran and imposing an economic embargo. The reason is, again, Russia and the PRC's categorical objection to undue pressure on Tehran.
Given this position, observers believe, especially if Iran continues to ignore the UN Security Council and IAEA demands, the United States and the European troika will try to secure the adoption of a new resolution in the coming weeks in which the demand that Iran cease enrichment will be presented as a harsh ultimatum. Ultimately the United States and its European allies may look at the possibility of imposing sanctions on Iran outside the UN framework. Political analysts see this prospect as the most realistic, especially if Russia and China's support for Iran does not weaken in the immediate future. It is hard to predict, however, exactly how likely the option of punishing Iran outside the United Nations (essentially the scenario for the latest Iraq campaign) is to be applied.
President Ahmadinezhad's government, at least, does not believe that the West will ultimately have the resolve to attack Iran and dismisses as bluff the war threats made by politicians in the United States and Britain.
Bear in mind that Iran has also made threats this month to hit American targets around the world if it does become the object of US military action. In addition, Ayatollah Khamene'i, spiritual leader of the Islamic Revolution, stated this week that his country is ready to share nuclear technologies with other states if the pressure on his country continues.
(Description of Source: Moscow Gazeta.ru WWW-Text in Russian -- Popular website often critical of the Kremlin; owned by Sekret Firmy company and not affiliated with the Gazeta newspaper)
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