June 23, 2008
Dave

Steve, I had the coincidental opportunity (there really are no coincidences though) to have dinner with a well placed FEMA official the other night. Below is a synopsis of the information I gleaned.

1. FEMA believes the weather related disasters will continue and increase in severity.

2.  FEMA believes the geological related disasters such a earthquakes and volcanic activity will continue and increase in severity even though we are at record levels for such disasters NOW.

3. Food shortages will get worse and create emergency situations worldwide in dealing with the inability to feed the masses. This will even be evident in areas that Americans consider civilized "western" countries.

4. The "suitcase nuke" scenario is indeed real and of dire proportions. FEMA feels caught between a rock and a hard space in their in ability to warn the populace without causing undo panic.

5. FEMA will be overwhelmed by just one major disaster let alone a series of emergencies and disasters that FEMA expects in the near future. Even though FEMA has recommendations on preparedness and food storage on their web site, they feel they are on skating on thin ice trying to balance the need to warn Americans and the potential for creating panic.

6. When asked what was thought to be the most probable disaster with respective highest repercussions it was stated that Avian Influenza (Bird flu) mutating to a human borne and transmitted form was top on the list. It was stated that it was not IF but WHEN it would occur. It IS coming it was said and it will make previous epidemics look mild. Much was learned from the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) viral outbreak in 2002-2003, especially in Ontario, Canada. The quickness at which the virus spread and the speed at which supplies (masks, medicine, etc) were depleted was totally unexpected. Caregivers and responders quickly found themselves debilitated and unable to function.

A major concern is apparently an epidemic outbreak in Los Angeles. It was said that essentially all credit card transactions go through L.A.. A humanized bird flu outbreak in L.A. would sicken about one quarter of the work force at any one time. Another one quarter to one half would stay at home to care for the sick or prevent getting the virus themselves. The remaining workers would not be able to keep the consumer credit markets "resolved" and the banks would shut off the credit card system to stay solvent. This in turn after only two days would "collapse" the economy of the united States of America. After four days it would collapse the world economy it was said.

One must also remember the rest of the work force delivering food, fuel, power from power plants, water and waste water systems, and importantly police and security services will also not be able to show up for work in numbers sufficient to keep things moving.  Society could turn into something that looks like "Mad Max" fairly quickly it was said.

Chance favors the prepared, God Bless........Dave