July 21, 2008
By Jim Meyers
Newsmax.com
Israel will “almost surely” strike Iran’s nuclear sites in the coming months — and if the conventional attacks fail to destroy or at least delay Iran’s nuclear program, the Middle East will face a nuclear war.
That’s the view of Benny Morris, a professor of Middle Eastern history at Israel’s Ben-Gurion University, who predicts either a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange after Iran gets the bomb.
“Should Israel’s conventional assault fail to significantly harm or stall the Iranian program, a ratcheting up of the Iranian-Israeli conflict to a nuclear level will most likely follow,” Morris, author of “1948: A History of the First Arab-Israeli War,” writes in the International Herald Tribune.
“Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran will reach the ‘point of no return’ in acquiring the capacity to produce nuclear weapons in one to four years. Which leaves the world with only one option if it wishes to halt Iran's march toward nuclear weaponry: the military option, meaning an aerial assault by either the United States or Israel.”
The U.S. has the military capability to do the job. But given Iraq and Afghanistan, the American public is not likely to approve of increasing U.S. military action in the Middle East, Morris observes.
“Which leaves only Israel - the country threatened almost daily with destruction by Iran's leaders,” he writes. “The period from Nov. 5 to Jan. 19 seems the best bet, as it gives the West half a year to try the diplomatic route but ensures that Israel will have support from a lame-duck White House.”
But it is unlikely that Israeli conventional forces will succeed in destroying or significantly delaying the Iran nuclear project, according to Morris.
Nevertheless, Israel will “certainly make the effort,” he believes. And the Iranians will likely retaliate by attacking Israel’s cities with ballistic missiles.
That would leave Israeli leaders with two agonizing choices: One, to allow the Iranians to acquire nuclear weapons and hope for a nuclear standoff, with the prospect of mutual assured destruction dissuading the Iranians from launching a nuclear attack; or two, to use the Iranian retaliatory strikes as a justification for using Israel’s nuclear arsenal to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Morris concludes: “Thus an Israeli nuclear strike to prevent the Iranians from taking the final steps toward getting the bomb is probable.”
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Israel_nuclear_war_/2008/07/21/114740.html?utm_medium=RSSHawk's
Hawk's Analysis
FYI.......SAYS IF CONVENTIONAL ATTACKS FAIL AGAINST IRAN THEN MIDEAST WILL HAVE A NUCLEAR WAR. IT WILL SORT OUT MUCH SOONER THAN HE THINKS.
RIVER PIRATE CONFIRMS IRAN HAS GIVEN HEZBOLLAH ANTI SHIP MISSILES WITH 120 MILE RANGE..........
HEZZIES WILL START WAR WITH ISRAEL SOON IN LEBANON/ISRAELI BORDER NEAR SHABA FARMS ......THEY WILL TAKE OUT ANOTHER ISRAELI SHIP OR WILL HIT A U.S. SHIP PROTECTING THE ISRAELIS. U.S. WILL HIT HEZZIES BACK IN LEBANON AND THEN THAT WILL DRAG SYRIA INTO FRAY.......THAT COULD THEN ALSO BE THE PRETEXT FOR ALL OUT GO DOWNTOWN ON THE CANDYBARS AND ALMOND JOY........OF COURSE CITING THAT IRAN PROVIDED THE MISSILE TO HEZZIES.......POOF YOU HAVE ATTACK ON IRAN AND IRAN RESPONDS AGAINST SHIPS IN PERSIAN GULF, LAUNCHES SHAHAB III AND IV'S ONTO TEL AVIV, HAIFA, DIMONA, BAGHDAD, AND PROBABLY NAVAL BASES IN UAE.....AND C&C IN QATTAR.......BY THEN RUSSIA LAUNCHES ON CONUS D.C., AND VIRGINIA MARYLAND BASES....NYC, BOSTON , PHILLY......ANY U.S. ASSETS IN PERSIAN GULF, IRAQ, AND MED LAUNCH ON IRAN, DAMASCUS AND SUBS WILL FIGHT WITH RUSSIANS IN THE MED......SAUDIS AND KUWAITIS COULD ALSO GET HIT AND SURELY WILL HAVE FALLOUT.
RUSSIANS THEN LAUNCH ON MIAMI AND FLORIDA AF AND NAVY BASES AND PROBABLY BRAGG/POPE AND GEORGIA RANGER BASES....POSSIBLY FT CAMPBELL AS WELL ON KY/TENN LINE.....PROBABLY FROM CARRIBEAN AO INCLUDING CUBAN AND VENEZUELAN MIGS FIRING CRUISERS. ALSO NEW ORLEANS AND NORTH REFINERIES ON MISS RIVER, HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL REFINERIES AND TEXAS AFB'S
THEN ON WEST COAST ....SAN DIEGO , LA, VANDENBURG AFB, McCLELLAN COMM CENTER, SAN FRANCISCO, SEATTLE, POSSIBLY PORTLAND.........ALASKA BASES AND SUB WARS IN ARCTIC.......AND PROBABLY THE DAKOTAS AND MONTANA MISSILE BASES AS WELL.......
NKOREA LAUNCHES GOOD STUFF ON U.S. SOUTH KOREAN BASE AND POSSIBLY JAPAN, RED CHINK SUBS MAY SNEAK UP ON U.S. FLEET IN PAC......OR THEY MIGHT SIT OUT........AND WAIT FOR ARMAGEDDON TO FOLLOW THE GOG MAGOG WAR AGAINST ISRAEL(WHAT IS LEFT) AND THEN BRING 200 MILLION AGAINST THE REMNANT WITH LUCIE HIMSELF LEADING.
IT COULD HAPPEN JUST LIKE THAT.........IF RUSSIA LAUNCHES ON CONUS IT WILL BE MASSIVE AND TIMED SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH SHORT MISSILE TIMES FROM SUBS WITHIN 3 -5 MINUTES FOR THE COASTS AND WITHIN 15-20 FOR THE INTERIOR ....TIMED AS IRAN LAUNCHES AS WELL........IF POSSIBLE AND ORDERS ARE COMMUNICABLE (RECALL LAUNCH CODES ARE NOT ON SUBS ANYMORE) U.S. WILL LAUNCH ON RUSSIA...WHICH WILL HAVE ITS COMMAND AND CONTROL BUTTONED UP IN THE BIG MOUNTAIN AND THEIR CIVIL DEFENSE IN MOSCOW AND ST. PETERSBURG ACTIVATED. SAT WARS AND SPACE XRAY CRAFT WARS COULD RAGE......GUAM HAS ALREADY HAD TWO OBJECT LESSONS ON X WARFARE.......THEY ARE TARGETED EITHER BY CHINESE CHIPS OR RUSSIAN XRAY TYPE WEAPONS(RECALL I WARNED ON AIR THAT GUAM SHOULD BEEF UP SECURITY ABOUT A YEAR AGO)
AS RIVER PIRATE DISCUSSED NOW THE START IS IN THE HANDS OF THE CRAZIES IN HEZBOLLAH AS PROXIES.......IF THE LUCIES WANT IT TO GO THAT WAY......WITHIN 30-45 MINUTES.........THEN DEATH ON A MASSIVE SCALE.
THERE IS POWER IN THE BLOOD OF JESUS.
Hawk