May 29, 2009
Doug McIntosh

It would be a serious mistake to not take North Korean leader Kim Jong seriously. I realize he tends to have a clownish effect, with the Elvis thing, the leisure suits etc. etc. etc. on western people. This is unfortunate, since Kim Jong is one of the most powerful men on this planet in the military sphere. Respect the power, if not the man, or the political system. To paraphrase Stalin's famous "How many divisions has the Pope?", Kim Jong has one million men in his active duty military. He has seven million in his reserves. He has the capacity to fire 300,000 155mm and 175mm artillery shells in one hour at South Korea's capital Seoul. He has special forces that are lethal. Kim Jong has nuclear tipped missiles capable of doing a Hiroshima level attack.

None of which would matter except Kim Jong just restarted the Korean War. The first Korean War ended with a cease fire/armistice in 1953. No peace treaty; no formal surrender like with Germany and Japan after World War Two. Just a piece of paper saying we won't shoot at you, if you won't shoot at us. To put it bluntly, the Korean War never stopped, it was merely suspended. There are have been numerous incidents in the DMZ, including 1976's famous "Tree War" where an unarmed tree pruning party of American soldiers was attacked, several were killed, during the Republican convention if I remember correctly. Over the years soldiers dropped off for guard duty on the DMZ have been found with a sniper rifle bullet in their head, courtesy of North Korea. So the idea the Korean Peninsula has been at "peace" since 1953 isn't accurate. A lack of war is not peace. It is simply a lack of war.

The origins of the Korean War go back to World War Two at least. After WW2 Korea was divided at the 38th parallel, according to Dean Rusk simply by drawing a line on a map, in order to keep the Russians out of South Korea. On June 25th, 1950 North Korean forces poured over the border and overwhelmed South Korea. Allied forces were reduced to a small enclave on the southern tip near Pusan, where they barely avoided slaughter. General Douglas McArthur then did his famous Inchon landing, surprised and outflanked North Korea and hounded them back to the Yalu River and the Chinese border. McArthur then began bombing and strafing Chinese airfields, inside of China, which triggered a Chinese invasion and his removal by President Truman. The Korean War was officially a United Nations police action, turned into a slugging match much like Italy in World War Two. North Korea pushed us to Pusan. We outflanked them and pushed them to the Yalu River. Chinese troops pushed us back into South Korea and we pushed back. Finally, the world grew tired of Korea and settled on the 38th parallel, a cease fire and hoped Korea would just go away.

Korea hasn't gone away. It is now back with a vengeance. So where are we now in Korea? We are at war in Korea, at least since North Korea voided the 1953 cease fire. Normally, US troops keep weapons, firing pins and ammo separate. I would bet money that our troops in South Korea are now armed. They have their weapons. The weapons have their firing pins in them. The weapons are mounted on their vehicles or are on their persons. They have the 400 rounds combat load for their M-16's. They have the 50 caliber and M-60's mounted. They may very well be out in the field. We know that monitoring of North Korea has been increased. Watchcon, the Korean version of our Defcon is now at 2. The definition of that is imminent threat. We know that nuclear armed B-2's have been deployed to Guam. We don't know, but can reasonably conclude that nuclear armed "boomers" submarines are now on patrol off the Korean coast. Can' prove that, but it is my opinion they are. We also know that both Japan and South Korean forces are on a higher state of alert. As are North Korean forces I might add. There have been reports North Korea is massing troops on the border, but I haven't seen any confirmation of that.


The situation on the Korean Peninsula has reverted back to War. The reasons for that relate to Kim Jong trying to create the proper conditions for a transfer of political power to one of his sons. Given the state of North Korean agriculture, it is now clear North Korea is in a state of permanent crisis regarding basic life support for its people. In response to increasing UN sanctions, North Korea has simply cut itself off from everyone except China. North Korean actions have even led the newly conservative South Korean government to crack the whip and reduce aid to the North. For a whole lot of reasons North Korea finds itself nearly totally dependent on China, cut off from the rest of the world and undergoing a contentious power transfer. Add to that mix a powerful military, nuclear weapons and a road kill economy. Seen in this light, it is clear to me, as well as others, nobody is backing off here. Neither North Korea's military, nor a stroke addled Kim Jong are backing off, nor can either the US, Japan or South Korea back off at this point. The time for ignoring North Korean nuclear ambitions has passed. Kim Jong has intentionally forced the issue of his nuclear ambitions.

Even China is cutting aid to North Korea despite deep concerns about a North Korean collapse and floods of refugees pouring into China. You also can tell how serious the Korean situation is when Russian Siberian authorities openly prepare for nuclear fallout from a nuclear confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.

We are right on the edge here. A nuclear armed economically collapsing North Korea, led by a medically incapacitated and mentally unstable leader, seeking to save face and transfer political power; facing, well facing the rest of the world. A world now fed up and willing to ratchet up the economic and political sanctions against North Korea. The assumption is that if "we" exert enough pressure, either through military threats, economic and political sanctions, North Korea will suddenly, go "okay we didn't really mean it." My personal opinion, based upon my study of North Korea, its history and culture, agenda and modus operandi is we don't quite get it in the west. Kim Jong has nothing left to lose. He is a dying man, leading a dying country, under intense internal strains and convulsions. Kim Jong has nothing to lose. Maybe he has nothing left to gain, but he has nothing left to lose. The most dangerous people in the world are not those who have everything to gain; the most dangerous people are those with nothing left to lose. We should remember that, every time we think about those 300,000 plus artillery shells raining down on Seoul.