Possible Timetable To War

September 5, 2002
By Paul Reynolds

President George W Bush has set in motion a timetable which could see the decks cleared for action against Iraq by the end of the year.

He has surprised some of his critics by agreeing to seek approval from Congress and by taking his case before the United Nations and his allies.

But his ultimate determination to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein is not in doubt - only the means by which this is to be achieved.

These are some of the indicators along the way:

Congressional approval

The current Congress is due to adjourn on 4 October and Mr Bush is likely to seek broad approval from Congress to achieve the disarmament of Iraq before then.

Congressional elections are held on 5 November. Waiting for a new Congress would inject further delay and disrupt the momentum he has started.

Mr Bush says he is confident of getting such approval but he will have to work for it.

United Nations backing

President Bush will speak to the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly on 12 September and will put his case for action.

His Secretary of State Colin Powell has suggested that Washington will ask the Security Council to demand that UN weapons inspectors be allowed back in.

Mr Powell said in South Africa that such a resolution would help the UN "coalesce around any subsequent action if the inspectors don't get back in."

All that could take several weeks. But Mr Bush is unwilling to give the UN a veto on any US operation. And the issue, he now says "is not inspectors - the issue is disarmament."

Allied support

The president is meeting UK Prime Minister Tony Blair at Camp David on 7 September and will talk by phone to leaders from China, Russia, France and others. Allied support is regarded in Washington as valuable but not in the final analysis necessary.

Arab support

The United States will need the help of at least Kuwait and probably Qatar to mount any major operation.

Making the case

Britain has promised to release a dossier on Iraq's efforts to make weapons of mass destruction. Britain issued a similar document making the case against the Taleban just before the war in Afghanistan.

Whether Washington does the same this time is an open question, but congressional leaders are already being privately briefed. The thrust of the propaganda campaign will be that Iraq has to disarm.

Logistics

The old adage about amateurs discussing strategy while experts discuss logistics comes into play. It will take weeks to get a sizeable force into position. This could take until the end of this year or even the beginning of next. That, of course, would be during the cool season, ideal for military operations, as it was in the Gulf War of 1991.

Ramadan

The Americans would probably like to avoid action during this holy month of fasting in the Muslim world. By chance, the dates for Ramadan this year are from early November to early December (depending on the appearance of the new moon) and this would fit in with a timetable for possible action thereafter.

There are, as always, some jokers in the pack. Mr Bush has not taken decisions on how to achieve his aim and others will come up with alternatives to an invasion.

Washington itself might hope for a quick strike against Saddam himself, leading to a collapse of his regime without a war.

One intriguing new idea has come from a think tank in Washington, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It has proposed that a 50,000 strong "Inspection Implementation Force" be deployed in or around Iraq, ready to go in and enforce intrusive inspections.

In return, the US would promise not to invade if such a system proved effective. It sounds far-fetched, but it will have to be considered. Other schemes will no doubt emerge.

But, after a summer of uncertainly, Mr Bush has put in play a political and diplomatic programme which points to decisions by the winter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2238318.stm