Pentagon Study May Boost Arms for Taiwan

July 15, 2002

A report by the Pentagon on China's military is set to strengthen the hands of those in Washington and Taipei who believe further sales of advanced US weaponry to Taiwan are essential to the island's security.

The report to Congress, released late last week, painted a picture of rapidly modernising Chinese armed forces that favour surprise attack and are focused on developing the ability both to use force against Taiwan and to deter US involvement in any conflict over the island.

"Preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait is the primary driver for China's military modernisation," it said.

The report, which said that Beijing's offensive capabilities improved by the year, warned that a surprise missile and air strike on Taiwan would "most likely" damage severely most of the island's combat aircraft and damage its air defence and command systems.

At the same time, the mainland Chinese navy could attack Taiwanese vessels with "little or no warning", clearing the way for land forces to cross the Taiwan Strait and achieve a foothold on the island.

While balanced somewhat by descriptions of the challenges facing Beijing's military, that doomsday scenario - given prominence in Taiwanese media coverage - will provide ammunition to those who believe Taiwan needs more US weapons to ward off the mainland threat.

Many Taiwanese legislators are concerned about the cost of planned purchases, including that of Kidd-class destroyers and diesel submarines offered by Washington last year.

However, officials and military officers say high-tech weapons are essential to maintain Taiwan's qualitative advantage over hugely more numerous mainland forces, and point out that the US is the only nation willing to supply such arms to the democratic island.

In a speech to military officers on Friday, Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan president, warned that recent overtures aimed at tightening cross- Strait economic links did not mean Taipei could let down its guard.

The Pentagon report, together with a similarly gloomy though separate congressional study to be released on Monday, could put the question of how to respond to China's growing power back on the US political agenda.

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