China Prepares to Invade Taiwan
December 14, 2002
by J. R. Nyquist
On Nov. 26 a Pravda headline asked, [is] ãBeijing Waiting for U.S.-Iraq War?ä The article is about U.S. concerns that China might strike Taiwan if the U.S. attacks Saddam Hussein in the Middle East. (1)
Is this a realistic possibility? The future remains uncertain, but an invasion of Taiwan remains high on Beijingâs list of ãthings to do.ä The Communists in the Far East are restless. In late October several warships from Chinaâs North Sea Fleet sailed east of Taiwan. The move was part of an ongoing and complex military exercise in the South China Sea. Taiwanâs defense minister, Tang Yao-ming, said the exercises were ãunprecedented.ä Addressing the Taiwanese (Republic of China) legislature, Defense Minister Tang begged legislators to purchase four U.S. Kidd-class destroyers.
In late November the Chinese used bad weather to mask amphibious exercises in the South China Sea. This was the fourth straight year the Chinese military practiced a coastal invasion, and it was the second year Chinese commanders succeeded in hiding their amphibious capabilities and new combined arms tactics from U.S. intelligence. As for human spies and infiltrators getting a look at Chinese capabilities, the Washington Times alleges that U.S. government policy ãlimits conducting human spying operations in China to avoid upsetting Beijing.ä (2)
On its side, China is aggressively scouting the waters around Taiwan. Since March Chinese spy boats have been spotted along Taiwanâs eastern shore on several occasions. Hong Kongâs Ming Bao newspaper reported that Beijingâs navy is following a special directive to ãmake preparations for military struggle against Taiwan.ä This directive was issued last March by President Jiang Zemin.
On Monday the Peopleâs Liberation Army ãrebuffedä U.S. questions about Chinese arms sales to rogue states during high-level strategic talks. The Chinese refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan; they also refused to limit the export of missile and nuclear technology to ãaxis of evilä countries by denying that such exports are taking place. According to the Washington Times, one U.S. official said: ãThe continued proliferation by China of nuclear, chemical and missile-related materials and technologies remains a problem.ä (3)
In violation of its international commitments, China has long been exporting weapons of mass destruction to terrorist regimes. U.S. officials are often too timid, perhaps too sensitive to U.S. economic interests to consistently enforce laws that would activate sanctions against Chinese companies. The Clinton administration briefly imposed sanctions on Chinese companies on two occasions in the 1990s. The first occasion involved missile sales to Pakistan and the second occasion involved chemical weapon sales to Iran. At the time no sanctions were imposed on for Chinaâs exporting germ warfare equipment and cruise missiles to Iran. (4)
Is there a connection between Chinaâs military buildup and its exports to rogue states? There may be a strategic connection. It is no mean coincidence that Iraqâs new air defense system was installed with Chinese assistance. Meanwhile, Chinaâs military buildup opposite Taiwan has continued for four years. This buildup involves the deployment of hundreds of short and medium range ballistic missiles. According to USAF Major Mark A. Stokes, an air attach&Mac218; at the U.S. embassy in Beijing from 1992 to 1995, the Peopleâs Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing a powerful first strike against Taiwan. In a report issued in 1999, Stokes wrote: ãThe Peopleâs Republic of China, is developing one of the most daunting conventional theater missile challenges in the world.ä He further stated: ãA large arsenal of highly accurate and lethal theater missiles serves as a Îtrump card,â a revolutionary departure from the PLA of the past. The PLAâs theater missiles and a supporting space-based surveillance network are emerging not only as a tool of psychological warfare, but as a potentially devastating weapon of military utility.ä (5)
Surprise attack is part of the Chinese war plan against Taiwan. Stokesâ 1999 report said the PLA was planning to use 400 missiles in an opening volley that would decapitate Taiwanâs political and military leadership, forestalling any effort to preemptively disrupt Chinaâs missile forces with air strikes. Targets would include Taiwanâs defense ministry and the presidential palace. In terms of its plan, Beijing is respectful but not fearful of U.S. military intervention. In a 1999 strategic directive from Chinaâs Central Military Commission to all corps-level commands, Chinaâs strategic leadership stated that nuclear war with America was an option because America would recoil in horror after the loss of one city while China had the toughness to prevail despite much heavier losses.
It is in this context that North Koreaâs war preparations and Russiaâs friendly overtures to China must be viewed. A regional war in the Middle East involving U.S. forces might tempt China to launch an attack. The North Korean military buildup is significant in this regard as well.
On Dec. 5 the U.S. government reminded the North Koreans that they had promised not to develop nuclear weapons. But the North Koreans, backed and supplied by China, have thrown defiance in the face of the Americans. After 1994 the United States gave a great deal of aid (especially food and fuel aid) to North Korea on the basis of Pyongyangâs promises. Now that North Korea has broken those promises, true to Communist form, tensions are on the rise. Last week the United States government described the situation in North Korea as ãvery serious.ä As if to make matters worse, the North Koreans recently admitted to having operational nuclear weapons. In October they admitted to secretly enriching their uranium stockpile for the construction of additional nuclear weapons.
Sino-Russian relations lie at the core of the emerging Far East crisis. Conventional analysts may think this an odd fact, but nothing seems to have changed in the region since the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950, except that China and North Korea are stronger than ever and armed with mass destruction weapons ö and Russia is working closely to build up Chinaâs military potential. According to Dr. Alexandr Nemets, writing in Newsmax, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided ãto use all means and tools for the expansion of weapon exports to China.ä Russiaâs defense industry is now tied to Chinaâs military, and is Chinaâs leading supplier of advanced weapons. Last month the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers, along with President Putin, decided to transform the Shanghai Cooperation Organization into a military bloc. (This organization combines the former Soviet states of Central Asia with China and Russia.) Russia is absolutely committed to modernizing the Chinese armed forces, and has promised to deliver shipments of SU-30 MKK fourth generation Russian fighters to China. The list of Russian military items being shipped to China is very large, and very worrisome. (6)
(1) Pravda, ãBeijing Waiting for U.S.-Iraq War?ä <http://english.pravda.ru/columnists/2002/11/26/39994.html>http://english.pravda.ru/columnists/2002/11/26/39994.html
(2) Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times, ãInside the Ring,ä <http://www.washtimes.com/national/20021129-7413878.htm>http://www.washtimes.com/national/20021129-7413878.htm
(3) Bill Gertz, Washington Times, ãChina's Arms Sales, Stance on Taiwan Chill Talks With U.S." <http://www.washtimes.com/national/20021210-81002548.htm>http://www.washtimes.com/national/20021210-81002548.htm
(4) Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II, <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0895262584/financialsenseon>Red Dragon Rising: Communist Chinaâs Military Threat to America (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 1999 ), p. 117.
(5) Bill Gertz, <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0895262819/financialsenseon>The China Threat: How the Peopleâs Republic Targets America (Washington, D.C.: Regnery, 2000), p. 189.
(6) Alexandr Nemets, ãFrom Bad to Worse,ä <http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/11/27/163850.shtml>http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/11/27/163850.shtml
© 2002 <http://www.jrnyquist.com/>Jeffrey R. Nyquist
http://www.jrnyquist.com/