U.S. Alzheimer's Cases to Triple by 2050

July 22, 2002
By Peggy Peck, UPI Science News

     STOCKHOLM, Sweden, July 22 (UPI) -- By 2050 the number of Americans diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease is expected to balloon to 16 million, up from 4.5 million who now are diagnosed with this debilitating disease that causes memory loss and confusion. Top Stories

     Dr. Denis Evans, professor of medicine at Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center in Chicago, delivered the new projections at a news conference Monday at the eighth International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders.

     Evans said he came up with the new numbers by using population estimates from the 2000 U.S. Census and factoring in incidence data collected by the Chicago Health and Aging Project. What is happening, said Evans, is the fastest growing segment in the U.S. population are the oldest, old -- those who are age 85 or older. The risk for Alzheimer's increases with age, added Dr. Marilyn Albert of Harvard University School of Medicine.

     "At age 85 we all agree that one in four people has Alzheimer's, but some researchers estimate that as many as one in two 85-year-olds has Alzheimer's. The numbers are huge," Albert said in an interview with United Press International.

     "None of us want this to happen. The tragedy of Alzheimer's is immeasurable," said Evans, but he warned reversing the trend will "take action right now." Evans told UPI he and other researchers think the only way to slow the Alzheimer's explosion is to attack the "problem from both a prevention and a treatment prospective."

     At the conference much of the research is concentrated on prevention with a number of epidemiological studies suggesting a high antioxidant, low-fat diet combined with exercise, plus supplementation with B vitamins as well as vitamin E can reduce the risk of Alzheimer's.

     At present, there are no drugs approved for prevention of the disease. Four drugs, tacrine (brand name Cognex), donepezil (Aricept), rivastigmine (Exelon) and galantamine (Reminyl) are approved for treatment of symptoms and in some people these drugs can achieve small improvements in memory.

     Albert, who serves as chairwoman of the Medical and Scientific Advisory Council at the Alzheimer's Association and as such helps oversee a $20 million research budget, said more Alzheimer's patients will drive health care costs into the stratosphere. Right now costs associated with caring for Alzheimer's patients run about $100 billion at year. "We can expect a tripling of these costs if the numbers go as high as 16 million," she said.

     Moreover, in the United States there is no federal or state program to pay the costs of nursing home care for Alzheimer's patients and there is "virtually no good, affordable private insurance," said Albert.

     The disease burden, she said, "falls on the children, daughters and sons, who must take care of these patients." The toll on the family is "almost too awful," said Albert.
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