El Nino May Appear as Early as July - U.S. Expert

June 6, 2002
By Randy Fabi

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - El Nino, the weather phenomenon blamed for deadly droughts and floods, could officially arrive as early as July and reach its full devastating intensity by the end of the year, a U.S. government weather expert told Reuters Thursday.

Telltale signs of a nascent El Nino can already be seen in South America, where the worst storms in 100 years hit Chile this week, killing 11 and leaving thousands homeless.

Vernon Kousky, an El Nino expert for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the agency may announce El Nino's arrival if ocean temperatures in the Pacific continue to warm this month.

"Given the warming patterns recently, we may be ready to say El Nino is here by our next update in July," Kousky said in an interview.

NOAA is scheduled to issue its next monthly El Nino report on July 11.

El Nino, or "boy child" in Spanish, is an abnormal warming of waters in the eastern Pacific that distorts wind and rainfall patterns around the world, causing deadly floods and droughts. It usually occurs every four to five years and can last up to 18 months.

NOAA, the federal agency that first predicted El Nino's return five months ago, said earlier on Thursday it gathered more evidence in recent weeks indicating a "weak-to-moderate" El Nino will develop at year-end.

U.S. TO FEEL IMPACT IN NOVEMBER

Kousky said the United States could feel the brunt of El Nino's wrath starting in November and dissipating by April 2003.

In a typical El Nino, the United States would see less activity during the Atlantic hurricane season and a milder summer rainy season in the U.S. Southwest. The Pacific Northwest would have less snow in the winter, while Gulf Coast states may experience heavier rainfall.

Drought-parched regions of the United States were not expected to be impacted by the approaching El Nino, Kousky said.

The wheat-growing Plains states, Texas, the Rocky Mountains and much of the Atlantic coast from Maine to Florida are sweating through months of record dry conditions. Montana Sen. Conrad Burns, Republican, this week launched a push to obtain $1 billion in federal drought relief for farmers and ranchers in Western states.

El Nino was first reported by Latin American fishermen in the 19th century and was named after the Christ child because it was usually seen in Pacific waters around Christmas.

Meteorologists said three consecutive months of above normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean offers the best evidence of El Nino's reappearance. Currently, the warming trend is in its second straight month.

"This increase in ocean temperatures, combined with observations of abnormally heavy rainfall in parts of South America, and the lack of it over Indonesia suggests that El Nino continues to develop as was originally forecast," the agency said.

NOAA said this year's El Nino will be considerably weaker than the devastating 1997-98 episode, which caused an estimated 24,000 deaths and $34 billion in damages worldwide.

The United Nations (news - web sites) on Thursday urged the international community to donate vast quantities of food aid in southern Africa, fearing El Nino will exacerbate famine-threatened countries. About 12 million people in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Zambia, Swaziland and Mozambique are facing the worst food shortages in a decade.

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