Relations May Help Limited Migrant Plan

Sept. 7, 2001
SUSAN CARROLL, Citizen Staff Writer

Mexico waits for Bush to back up words

In his first state visit, Mexican President Vicente Fox conducted what amounted to a very public negotiation on behalf of his countrymen, in the United States and at home.

Speaking yesterday before a joint session of the U.S. Congress, Fox made a direct promise to an estimated 3 million to 4 million undocumented Mexicans living in the United States.

"My dear countrymen, Mexico will not forget you and will support you," Fox said. "We will not fail you."

But is it a promise he can keep?

Observers say the answer to that question depends on Fox's relationship with President Bush, which has long been described as close.

Their friendship has been compared to that of Bill Clinton and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose first official visit to the White House was dubbed a "love fest" by the media. They click like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, observers say.

"It's a really close rapport, and that bodes well for them," U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe said of Fox and Bush.

Bush, in greeting his neighbor from the south, said the United States has "no more important relationship in the world than the one we have with Mexico."

Fox quoted Benjamin Franklin: "A brother may not be a friend, but a friend will always be a brother."

Yet, experts warned, all the talk of friends and neighbors, amigos and vecinos, won't get a legalization program through Congress.

Bush has shied away from talk of legalizing the status of Mexicans living here, although he has talked about a guest-worker program that would reward years of service with a green card. Earlier this month he said there will be "no blanket amnesty."

But Bush hinted publicly yesterday for the first time that he is willing to consider a immigration deal that includes permanent residency for at least some of the more than 3 million Mexicans living illegally in the United States.

Speaking shortly after Fox delivered an emotional appeal to Congress urging U.S. lawmakers to embrace a pact to help such immigrants, Bush said he would do his best to meet the deadline.

"I fully understand President Fox's desire for us to ... come up with a solution quickly, to expedite the process. And we're going to do that," Bush told reporters just before he departed with Fox for Toledo, Ohio.

Noting that a political deal on immigration acceptable to both Congress and Mexico "is an incredibly complex issue," Bush said he hopes "to come forward with a program that will pass Congress, that deals with guest workers with some sense of normalization. One of the things I have told (Fox) is I am willing to consider ways for a guest worker to earn a 'green card' status."

Fox, in his address to Congress, reminded his listeners that many of their own families had come from immigrant stock as he sketched a long-term vision in which Mexico would welcome home its migrants.

"We need you to come home one day and play a part in building a strong Mexico," Fox said, as if speaking directly to his fellow citizens. "We need you to come back. The future lies in a prosperous and democratic Mexico."

Undocumented workers in Tucson, though, are hoping they won't be left out of an immigration agreement.

"The immigrants who are here now, what are they going to do with us?" asked José, a 47-year-old undocumented worker from Jalisco, Mexico, who has lived in the United States for eight years.

"A temporary-worker program is not going to solve anything for us," said José, who spoke to the Tucson Citizen on the condition that his last name not be used for fear he would be deported. "It's only going to make things worse."

So how is Fox going to keep his promise? What kind of bargaining power does he have?

"That's what's interesting," said John Garcia, a University of Arizona political science professor. "Basically, we're talking about a U.S. decision. Mexico doesn't dictate U.S. immigration policy. It's kind of unusual. President Fox has taken a much more vocal stance than past presidents."

That may have something to do with his relationship with Bush, Garcia added.

"If it was a different person, and not Bush, it's sort of up to speculation as to whether Fox would take such a strong stance," he said.

Kolbe said he was a bit baffled.

"It's the United States' laws we're talking about, not Mexico's." Kolbe said. "I don't see where (Fox's) leverage is."

The common view is that Bush is courting the Latino vote in 2004.

Garcia offered another possible reason: "There may be a trade-off with better relations for U.S. investors in Mexico."

Fox, a former Coca-Cola executive, publicly pressured Bush on Wednesday to have a plan for immigration reform in place within a year.

It's no wonder why, said Isabel Garcia of Coalición de Derechos Humanos in Tucson.

The Border Patrol recorded its 75th death this week in the Tucson Sector, surpassing last year's record 74 for the fiscal year. In a single incident in May, 14 people died in the desert near Yuma in triple-digit temperatures.

"That came as a huge embarrassment for the two countries, who are talking about being the best neighbors in the world," Garcia said. "And then to have all these people die in the face of that, I think it kind of forced them to do something."

But what they will do is by no means clear.

There is little chance of an amnesty getting through Congress this year, Kolbe said, although the right guest-worker program has a "fair chance" to become law. He wanted a program, touted by Bush, that eventually rewards guest workers with legal permanent residency.

Even that compromise would take a lot of Bush's capital at a time when he has plenty of key issues on the table, from Medicare reform to missile defense, Kolbe said.

The prospect of allowing these illegal immigrants to move toward permanent status - and ultimately citizenship - draws an intense backlash from many GOP conservatives, who maintain it would reward lawbreaking.

"Opposition is pretty strong in the House," said Dan Stein, executive director of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a conservative group opposed to high levels of immigration. "There's a strong desire to follow the president, but they don't want to follow the president off a cliff."

Faced with such resistance - and polls showing that opposition to legalization is greatest among Republican voters - the White House had been systematically lowering expectations. Bush and other administration officials downplayed the prospect of legalization while emphasizing their interest in a guest-worker program - and indicating that whatever is done would not be likely to be done quickly.

The Los Angeles Times contributed to this report.
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/local/archive/01/immig01/9_7_01border.html