Saddam Bolsters His Defences Against US Attack

June 17, 2002
Richard Beeston in Baghdad

SADDAM HUSSEIN has adopted a three-pronged strategy to defend himself against attack by America.

The Iraqi President has ordered the military to bolster the country’s weakened defences, started a diplomatic charm offensive in the Arab world and showered petro-dollars on potential foreign allies.

With fresh reports from Washington yesterday that the Bush Administration has already authorised the CIA to overthrow the regime in Baghdad, the Iraqis are taking the impending confrontation with America as the most serious threat since the Gulf War 11 years ago.

According to the Washington Post yesterday, Mr Bush instructed the CIA earlier this year to “use all available tools” in a covert operation to remove the Iraqi leader. The methods include strengthening Iraqi opposition groups, expanding intelligence operations and even using US special forces.

Anticipating precisely this type of attack, the Iraqi leader recently told regional commanders to prepare defences against US forces. Each major urban centre will be garrisoned with reinforcements and local commanders allowed to declare a state of emergency and operate autonomously if attacked.

The tactic is aimed at avoiding the disastrous outcome of the Gulf War, when Iraqi forces, in fixed positions in the desert and cut off from their headquarters, were destroyed in a matter of days by allied troops.

This time the Iraqis will not commit their forces to open combat, but will defend themselves in heavily built-up areas, where the Americans, possibly backed by British troops, will have to engage in potentially costly street fighting.

Despite the plan, observers in Baghdad remain sceptical about the Iraqis’ fighting ability. Iraq is thought to have only about one third of the fighting power of a decade ago. Its equipment is obsolete and spare parts are hard to get. The only loyal forces are the 100,000-strong Republican Guard and various security services.

Baghdad, therefore, is investing more effort in a diplomatic pre-emptive strike led by Naji al-Sabri, the Foreign Minister, who is said to have the support of Qusay Hussein, the President’s youngest son and heir apparent.

Mr al-Sabri, a career diplomat and former newspaper editor, has engineered an extraordinary change in Iraq’s fortunes abroad. Once a pariah state, Iraq has now patched up relations with most of the Arab world and is soon expected to reopen diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, a country that it briefly invaded only a decade ago and attacked with Scud missiles.

Iraq is also openly encouraging Palestinians against the Israelis, recently increasing the reward for “martyrs’ ” families from $10,000 (nearly £6,800) to $25,000, and offering $25,000 for every home destroyed in the West Bank town of Jenin during Israel’s military incursion.

The logic is that the more the violence continues between the Israelis and Palestinians, the more difficult it will be for the Americans to justify another conflict with Iraq.

One crucial factor will be the role of the UN Security Council and its five permanent members. America and Britain are already regarded by Baghdad as unturnable enemies, but China, France and Russia are far more conciliatory, particularly since they have been awarded most of the multimillion-pound contracts to exploit Iraq’s huge oil wealth.

“We now have relations with 75 countries in the world,” Muhammad Mehdi Saleh, the Trade Minister, said. “The priority for commercial contracts will go to those that support Iraq and raise their voice in its defence.”

He cited as an example trade between Britain and Iraq last year, valued at £3.4 million, while Germany, considered a much more friendly nation, won contracts worth nearly £470 million.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-329248,00.html