Window of Opportunity May Slam On Iraq Strike

Sept. 18, 7:27 AM ET
Dave Moniz USA TODAY

WASHINGTON -- The return of U.N. weapons inspectors to Iraq could delay or complicate U.S. military action there because of the narrow window when the weather is suitable for ground attacks, military analysts say.

U.S. officials have said they may use attacks to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, and the ideal time for launching such action is late fall through early spring. Temperatures are moderate enough then for ground troops to travel in heavy armored vehicles and wear bulky suits to protect against chemical or biological weapons.

From November through March, average high temperatures in Iraq range from 58 to 74 degrees, according to the National Climactic Data Center. But the average high climbs to 84 degrees in April and 96 in May, and averages almost 107 degrees from June through September. The forecast for today in Baghdad is 106 degrees.

Iraq said Monday that it would allow unconditional weapons inspections. The process could take months as United Nations teams arrive and begin their work. The effect for the Pentagon could be a delayed opportunity to strike.

When planning the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the Pentagon figured it had a 60- to 70-day window from mid-January to April to launch a ground war with Iraq. The window began after the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and ended when temperatures soared.

This year, Ramadan begins in early November and ends in early December. It was widely assumed before Iraq agreed to admit inspectors that U.S. forces would wait until after Ramadan to avoid offending Arab sensibilities.

''From Ramadan up through April, those are the really desirable months to attack,'' says Steve Baker, a retired Navy admiral.

Another reason for a wintertime attack: There is less daylight, and American forces have a big advantage fighting at night.

''The heat won't stop an attack, but it makes it a heck of a lot more complicated. It really slows down movements you can make,'' Baker says.

David Grange, a retired Army general, says protective gear can be cumbersome. A full chemical and biological weapons set would include a charcoal-lined suit, gas mask, rubber boots and rubber gloves. It's hard to eat, drink or go to the bathroom, he says.

The United States has improved its capacity to operate in hot weather since the Gulf War. The Army routinely trains in the summer months in Kuwait.

Michael O'Hanlon, a national security expert at the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank, says the heat wouldn't deter the United States from attacking.

''If we discover Saddam has a nuclear weapon, I don't think it will prevent us from launching an attack in June,'' O'Hanlon says.

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