India's Nuke Arsenal Is 7 Times Larger Than Pak's

May 28, 2002
By Dr Gursharan Dhanjal  

New Delhi:The dark clouds seem to have dissipated but not the lightening along the Line of Control. By carrying out a successful test-fire of its newly-developed, short-range, surface-to-surface ballistic missile Ghaznavi or Hatf III, and Ghauri missile in the last two days, Pakistan has made it clear that it is not too keen on maintaining peace. But what does Pakistan want to prove?

It seems Pakistan has demonstrated an "add-on" deterrent to gain superiority over India, a move which will probably help General Pervez Musharraf convince people at home that he is committed to the Kashmir cause. But is Pakistan's economy ready to bear the cost of a "credible nuclear defence"? While General Musharraf may survive the next term in Government, the question remains, is Pakistan really ready to take on India's might?

Both sub-continental belligerents can manufacture weapons-grade material - India mostly plutonium and Pakistan mostly uranium. India has an estimated stockpile of about 430 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium, enough to make roughly 86 nuclear weapons. Pakistan has amassed 720 kilograms of weapons grade uranium (despite halting production of weapons-grade plutonium in 1991), enough for around two dozen nuclear weapons with the potential of killing 800,000 civilians at one go.

Size matters!
India has a nuclear arsenal that is about seven times larger than Pakistan's. Pakistan could reduce that gap, establishing an arsenal nearly half the size of India's within eight years. While Pakistan has a long way to go, no nuclear nations actually go to war. Perhaps this is one reason why there is a nuclear race rather than a nuclear war!

India has a standing army of 1.1 million, with defence spending of US $13.94 billion, 2.5 per cent of GDP, compared to Pakistan's standing army of 550,000 and defence spending of US $3.3 billion, or 4.2 per cent of GDP. The Indian Air Force is the world's fourth largest, best equipped and professionally trained. The overall difference between the Indian and Pakistan air forces is a ratio of about 2:1 in terms of planes - India has about 800, of which 715 are combat-ready, to Pakistan's present strength of 450.

Deadly tabs
While India's defence budget has been on the increase, ranging from an average 10-15 per cent (except for couple of occasions when it was raised by nearly 28 per cent), Pakistan's defence expenditure has not increased for many years now. In 1994, when India raised its defence budget by 20 per cent, the Prime Minister of Pakistan had remarked that Pakistan cannot match it, because if it did, it would not be able to meet the 5.4 per cent budget defence deficit target agreed upon with the IMF. Again, two years ago, when India raised its defence spending by 28.2 per cent, Pakistan did not react but actually cut its defence spending by 8 per cent. The amount thus saved was diverted to the Government's poverty alleviation programmes.

The tally
Strategic analysts say that Pakistan has only 72 hours worth of fighting strength, with nearly no economic muscle, after which it would have to consider the nuclear option. There are reports that Pakistan has already deployed Shaheen-1 missiles along the LoC with India. Shaheen-1 is a solid fuel-based missile that can hit targets up to 750 kilometers. Pakistan's Air Force (PAF) is maintaining a state of high alert, conducting Combat Air Patrols along the Indian border and LoC, to intercept any violation of Pak air space. Currently, PAF is using recently upgraded F-16s and newly bought F-7PGs for CAPs.

According to recent estimates, Pakistan has only 2500 tanks compared to 3500 that India has. India outnumbers Pakistan with its air strike fleet of 1500 aircrafts, compared to Pakistan's 625 in all. Pakistan has 20 warships in answer to India's fleet of 42. But Pakistan claims that its upgraded nuclear warhead carriers, F-16's and French Mirage fighters are superior at penetrating enemy airspace than India's Soviet-designed MiGs, Sukhois or French Mirages.

Pakistan is also believed to possess about 42 nuclear-capable missiles ready to launch within 7-10 minutes, particularly the Chinese M-11 short-range missile (Hatf-II) with a range of 350 kilometers and a 500-kg of payload. Its Shaheen class of missiles has a maximum range of 2500 kilometers with a 1,000-kg of payload. Ghauri - variant of South Korean Nadong - is an MRBM which can strike up to 3000 kilometers and carry an even heavier payload. But most of these missile systems are under developmental stage. But in fact, what Pakistan actually has and is deployable are the Chinese variants of M-11 and M-9 called Hatf II and Hatf III respectively. Hatf IV or Shaheen I is another variant of M-9 with an extended range.

India has two major families of missile systems: the Prithvi and Agni. The Prithvi is a short-range missile with a 350 kilometer range and a 1,000 kg payload. The Indian Army has one Prithvi regiment with 3-5 launchers. India's IRBM, Agni, has a range of 2,500 kilometers. Agni III, which is in a developmental stage, will have a range of 3,700 kilometers with 1000 kg payload. India is now developing an ICBM called Surya with a range of 5,000 kilometers.

Shopping spree
Pakistan is further exploring the possibility of buying Mirage 2005 aircraft from France. It has already inducted Cobra Gunship helicopters, which can be equipped with anti-tan missile having a range of 3.5 kilometers. Pakistan recently has inked a US $150 million contract with Ukrainian Malyshev tank plant for the supply of 6TD-2 engines to be used in the production of Al-Khalid tanks, which can be compared with that of Russian T-90 and German Leopard, which are considered to be leading tanks of the world. Pakistan is currently in talks with China for financial assistance to set up Chashma II, a 600-megawatt nuclear power plant.

In simple arithmetical terms, India is far ahead of Pakistan. However, the Islamic militant groups pose the greatest threat to India. These militant groups are fully integrated into Indian society and have the potential to wage a proxy war all over India, should the countries actually begin a war. That could be dangerous.

(The author specialises in South Asia Defence strategy and NPT)
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