U.S. Warns Of Massive Deaths If Nukes Launched

May 31, 2002

Pakistan is redeploying troops from the western border with Afghanistan to the eastern flank with India

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Up to 17 million people would be killed or injured in the first weeks of an all-out nuclear war between India and Pakistan, according to the Pentagon.

The figure is from a recently updated Defense Intelligence Agency estimate based on a worst-case scenario in which both sides unleash all their nuclear weapons, and score direct hits.

The figures were released on Friday as India's defense minister shrugged off growing international concerns that the two South Asian foes were on the brink of a full-out conflict, even as both nations stepped up their war footing.

Amid a flurry of diplomatic efforts to curb rising tensions between India and Pakistan, India's defense minister George Fernandes described the situation as " stable."

CNN's Suhasini Haidar says a Pentagon study finds as many as 12 million people could be killed in a Pakistan-India nuclear conflict (May 30)

The U.S. State Department said later on Friday it had indications that Pakistani authorities had ordered a halt to incursions by militants across the border of Indian-controlled Kashmir.

"We have indications that instructions have been given to stop the infiltrations," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told reporters.

Pakistani authorities gave the instructions, he said.

"It's still too early to say that infiltration across the Line of Control has stopped and that, when it stops, it will be permanent," he added.

"At this point, we're watching the situation very closely."

Pakistan had confirmed it was redeploying troops it has positioned close to Afghanistan, moving them eastwards to its frontier with nuclear rival India.

It was not known how many troops might be involved in such a move -- intended to beef up forces along the Line of Control between Pakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir, where hundreds of thousands of troops are already massed.

Earlier, U.S. officials said India was preparing to load conventional warheads on some of its medium-range missiles that can also carry nuclear warheads, following high-profile missile testing by Pakistan over the weekend and into this week.

In further developments during the day, both America and Britain began advising their nationals to leave the area.

The U.S State Department authorized the voluntary departure of non-essential personnel and all dependents from the U.S. Embassy and consulates in India.

That means the U.S. government will pay for plane tickets for those people. In a travel warning posted on the State Department's Web site, the U.S. government warns American citizens to defer travel to India because of tensions with Pakistan.

"Tensions have risen to serious levels and the risk of intensified military hostilities between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out," the warning reads.

Britons were also being advised to consider leaving India because of the threat of war.

The families of UK Government staff and non-essential staff will be offered the chance to return home, UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said.

Amid concerns any redeployment could deal a serious blow to the U.S. war on terrorism, President George W. Bush announced that U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would visit the volatile region.
"We are making it very clear that war will not serve their interests," Bush said at a Cabinet meeting.

Relations between India and Pakistan have come under pressure in recent weeks following a raid this month on an Indian camp in the disputed region of Kashmir, a flashpoint between the two rivals for more than half a century.

Pakistan and India have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir since independence from Britain in 1947.

Musharraf, when asked what assurances he can give that the tensions wouldn't escalate into war -- conventional or nuclear -- said "all I can do is to give my own assurance that we will try to avoid conflict. It will be my utmost endeavor to avoid conflict."

Pakistan will not initiate a conflict, he said, but added "I think you need to get assurances from the Indian side."

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said Pakistan itself "is a victim of terrorism" and condemns terrorism.
http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/05/31/kashmir.attack/index.html