Delhi Prepares For The Prospect Of Nuclear War

June 6, 2002

Delhiwallahs may be going about their lives disregarding the threat of war between India and Pakistan but their government is taking no chances.

Against a backdrop of fear about a conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours, the government has drawn up detailed contingency plans covering every scenario, from conventional warfare on the disputed Kashmiri border to biological and nuclear attack on India's heartland.

Despite government assurances that a nuclear threat is unlikely, India is preparing for the worst.

In recent weeks, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has appointed private companies to mass-produce mobile nuclear shelters for civilians. While not wishing to be alarmist, the scientists behind the nuclear porta-cabin think it has selling potential. The three-tonne shelter, already available to the military, would soon be available to the few Indians who can afford what is likely to be a hefty price tag. Equipped with its own water, power and sanitation equipment, the 28-metre construction can hold 30 people for 96 hours - long enough to survive a nuclear blast.

A national contingency plan for India's masses was also put on standby in recent days, designed to cover all potential targets in the event of full-scale war. Cities under the most threat include the political capital New Delhi, financial capital Mumbai and industrial centres such as Chennai.

"The contingency plan for war is in place," said a senior government official. "It will be activated as soon as the troops are mobilised. We're now on total alert."

Dr A K Walia, New Delhi's health minister, said the capital was ready for all levels of attack, including bioterrorism and nuclear strike, though he warned in the case of the latter the government could do little to save Delhi's 14m residents.

"We're working on a total disaster plan for Delhi. We had already considered biological and chemical weapons. Now there is the question of nuclear attack. Here we will take the lead from the government of India," he said in an interview.

Despite hopes that the tension with Pakistan would be defused through diplomatic pressure and dialogue, the team of LK Advani, home minister, is in charge of planning for all outcomes, overseeing input from government ministries, the states and all emergency services. The co-ordinated response, which would be rolled out across the country in the event of war, covers emergency medical treatment, transportation, fuel reserves, food supplies and evacuation procedures.

Stockpiling and secure storage of enough fuel to last through a war have already taken place. Similar monitoring of food supplies has also been carried out. In the event of war, defence officials say air space would be closed immediately for the affected region and possibly nationwide.

Hospitals in big cities such as Delhi have been designated to deal with specific forms of treatment, including biological warfare, which may take the form of smallpox or plague. Some hospital workers and doctors have even received specialist training from the MoD on how to deal with chemical attacks, which may include the use of sarin gas or anthrax, said Dr Walia.

"We cannot rule out use of such weapons as part of terrorist activity."

India has ordered three mobile hazardous chemical units from Germany to treat victims. Also, an extra 2,500 beds have been added to Delhi's hospitals.

Evacuation plans for big cities have been drafted in case a potential border conflict looks likely to widen. "We've already been in touch with the Indian railways and told them they have to get wagons ready to move people out," said an MoD official. "Our evacuation plans cover all major cities, whatever part of India that is most vulnerable."

The logistics of such an operation are huge, involving the potential movement of tens of millions from the main cities alone. In such an event, private and public road transportation would come under government control, said another senior official.

The plans are ready to go live, said the government, but Indian planning is not always renowned for running to schedule so concerns about possible failure of government services amid a national crisis remain.

While the government has prepared contingency plans for war before, this time officials admit they have to think the unthinkable - a potential nuclear attack by Pakistan - even though the risk of such an attack is low. Under such a doomsday scenario, government insiders said there is no way of planning to save civilians through mass evacuation.

"The task would be so big we won't have time to relocate. The few nuclear shelters cannot contain everyone," said the senior government official. "Instead, priority would be given to the political leadership, the military commanders and key personnel needed to keep the country fighting."

Asked whether India feared mass panic, the official said: "Our people won't run. Where would they go?"

The MoD agreed that little preparation can be made for the low risk of nuclear conflict because the warning would be just a matter of minutes. The Indian government said a recent US Pentagon assessment that 12m people could die in a nuclear attack was correct and may even be too low.

"Theoretically, yes. It could be 12m. Some say it could even be 15m, depending on the number of Pakistani warheads and their range," said the defence official. "We are fully ready for everything, but I don't think it will escalate to the nightmare scenario."
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