Rise in Gold Ahead?

August 15, 2002

Explosive Rise in Gold Straight Ahead--Arch Crawford, Wall Street Underground

As many of my clients here at Centennial already know, I don't get a chance to post as often as I would like. The press of phone calls, consultations and taking orders makes it virtually impossible to cogitate during the daylight hours. Thus, I am relegated to the wee hours of the night to collect my thoughts and share them with clients and readers of this noble forum.

This week our office received two of our many financial newsletters--Arch Crawford's Crawford Perspectives and Nick Guarino's Wall Street Underground. Next to Adrian Van Eck's Money Forecast, The Steve Puetz Letter and James Grant's Interest Rate Observer, I look forward to reading these two market analysts. Both of them write controversial stuff (to say the least) and come to startling--even shocking--conclusions. Arch Crawford uses the methodology of astrology with which I don't agree, but he gets results. He is ranked #1 out of 518 managed investment programs for the last six months. So he has a hot hand at the moment.

When I read such newsletters, I look for facts and figures which corroborate or negate conclusions I have drawn based on other indepedent sources. For example, both analysts are forecasting a skyrocketing gold market between now and Christmas. More specifically, Arch Crawford states that an "excruciating rise in the price of GOLD" should begin no later than September 11th. (Hmmm. There is THAT date again. Deja vu a la Ossama bin Laden or maybe Saddam Hussein?) According to Crawford, the price should rise last until September 24th. And all of the foregoing should get going NO LATER than the when the new moon appears on September 6th.

Referring back to my methodology, I am an avid believer in anniversary dates and seasonal factors. Legendary market analyst and trader, W. D. Gann, also stated that anniversary dates were key to deciphering market turning points. Even Solomon said "that which has been will be again, and there is nothing new under the sun". Seasonally speaking, it is also no secret that the stock market usually turns down in late August, crashes into September and October, and then recovers in November. At least, this has been the pattern of the past five or so years. And remember, this pattern repeated when stocks were in a bull market. When it comes to gold, gold's seasonal low is in AUGUST and it rises into the fall and winter months!

What I am specifically looking at is the onset of the Jewish fall festivals, beginning with Rosh HaShanah on the eve of September 6th, then Yom Kippur on September 16th, and finally the Feast of Tabernacles on September 24th. Very interesting how these dates which are biblical line up with secular astrological data offered by Arch Crawford. I could offer my own speculation, but I don't know if there is any connection or if it is merely coincidence. I am reminded of how gold skyrocketed $84/ounce in September 1999 right in the middle of the fall festivals. Back then, it just so happened that the Washington Agreement was signed during that time of year, which limited central bank sales of gold until 2004.

In conclusion, it is my learned opinion that NOW is the time to prepare for the coming price explosion of gold which looks more and more certain by the day. You can name any upcoming fundamental news event as the trigger--from the SEC deadline of August 14th for certifying financial statements, to the imminent US invasion of Iraq resulting in Iraqi suicide bombers against mainland USA, to the likely default of Brazil. I won't argue about which one will occur or if all converge at once. It is the season for stocks to collapse and for gold to rise. Enough said.

So I issue, once again, an appeal to all of my past and present clients--who are thinking and rationally minded individuals--to review their financial holdings NOW (not next week) and to call me if they need to buy gold or add to their already existing holdings. Just an an aside: My wealthy clients who hire independent financial consultants have told me that they are advised to place between 10% and 20% as a minimum into precious metals. One client told me today he has 50% of his assets in gold. Why? Because gold plays the same role as life insurance has in years past. Gold is really economic insurance--insurance on one's savings and against unforeseen future events and disasters. So if you need to call me before the next crisis strikes, my extension here at the office is 102.

George
MarkeTalk (8/15/02; 00:04:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 83043)