VENEZUELA IS TOTALLY UNSTABLE

Posted By: Rosalinda
Date: Thursday, 18 April 2002, 11:15 a.m.

[Source: composite Venezuelan media;
NYTimes, wires, 4/17/02. Caracas]

VENEZUELA IS TOTALLY UNSTABLE. NOTHING HAS BEEN RESOLVED OUT OF THE EVENTS OF THE PAST WEEK, and the situation is exacerbated by the plummeting of the currency and economic chaos.

Opposition leaders are becoming more vocal about Hugo Chavez's return to power, questioning his legitimacy, and there's no predicting what will happen next.

On April 16, the State Dept. made the unusual move of announcing it had authorized the "voluntary departure" from Caracas of all embassy personnel in non-emergency positions, as well as family members of U.S. government personnel, citing the "continuing volatility of Venezuela's political and security situation." Normally, this type of measure would be implemented more quietly.

At the same time, the head of the opposition Democratic Action Party (AD), Rafael Marin, stated that AD doesn't recognize Chavez as the legitimate head of state, while Copei's Sergio Omar Calderon charged that Chavez had imposed "permanent unconstitutionality" on the country.

Other opposition figures are challenging Chavez's assertion that he "never resigned," and demanding the OAS take responsibility for determining whether Chavez is the legitimate President.

The grounds on which charges of unconstitutionality are based, haven't been specified publicly. The CTV labor federation has called for a national referendum to determine whether Chavez should remain in office.

Some press outlets are suggesting that loyalists within the National Assembly could turn against Chavez, because they have doubts about his Presidency.

The situation within the Assembly is shaky at best. When it convened on April 16, most of the opposition didn't show up, and a quorum was only reached with the help of deputies from Proyecto Venezuela.

AD deputy, Pastor Heydra, stated that the most minimal conditions for the legislators to meet in safety, don't exist, given the April 15 assassination attempt against legislator Carlos Tablante

[Source: El Nacion, 4/15/02. Caracas]

VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION LEGISLATOR CARLOS TABLANTE, WAS THE VICTIM OF A FAILED ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT on April 15.

Four armed men shot at the car in which he and his wife were travelling, driven by their bodyguard.

The bodyguard was killed, having been hit ten times, but Tablante and his wife escaped unharmed.

Authorities later arrested the four assassins, who are members of the police force of Aragua, the state whose governor, Didalco Bolivar, is very close to Chavez.

Tablante, who belongs to the MAS (Movement Toward Socialism), is known to be a wholly-owned asset of the drug-trafficking Cisneros family, although he poses as an anti-drug activist.

[Source: wires, El Nuevo Herald, 4/17/02. Caracas]

THE VENEZUELAN CURRENCY, THE BOLIVAR, HAS PLUMMETED BY 10% SINCE FRIDAY, APRIL 12, and the fear is that, in the current unstable situation, there will be a stampede toward dollar buying, as well as enormous capital flight which would put further pressure on the exchange rate.

Any new attack on the currency could force Hugo Chavez to devalue for the second time this year, which would be disastrous at a time when the government must shell out $700 million in foreign debt payments over the next two months.

The continued upheaval has also caused Venezuelan bonds and stock of Venezuelan companies to crash on Wall Street, while non-traditional exports have been paralyzed since last week.

One economist warned that if the government fails to obtain funds in capitals markets to amortize its debt, "we'll see a big restriction, which will make it difficult to find public funds for the social sector."

Last week's upheaval discouraged investment and shut down numerous businesses, causing losses totalling $600 million.