Steve Quayle News Alerts

July 8, 2002

Recipe for "preemptive strike” debate stew: take one portion of the reported leaked "war plans” of the U.S. plotting to take out Iraq’s Sadaam Hussein, which surprisingly reveal only a moderate concern about the dictator’s levels of chemical and biological weapons, simmer gently with the concession by even the most steadfast doomsayers amongst Iraq watchers that the country’s nuclear capability is at present nil.

For extra spicy debate stew, add a volatile measure of enigma: attacking Sadaam would vaporize a decade-long policy of containment that has deterred him from using weapons of mass destruction, replacing the uneasy status quo with provocation that experts say virtually guarantees their use.

John Hillen, a veteran of the 1991 Persian Gulf war and an advisor to the 2000 Bush campaign opined, "Any buildup would be seen by Saddam as a spear pointed at his heart, and he would be smart to act preemptively with chemical weapons against the first units showing up.”

Reportedly, Pentagon officials do not believe that Hussein’s development of weapons of mass destruction has advanced seriously since the Gulf War – which is not to suggest that Saddam has stopped pursuing a weapons-of-mass-destruction program since UN inspectors left in December 1998.

What exactly do the experts say Sadaam has in his present arsenal to possibly make the marshalling of U.S. troops in the area dangerous and the march into Baghdad fraught with bio-chemical hazards?

If you listen to controversial former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter, not much. In fact, Ritter maintains that Sadaam’s WMD inventory was pretty much flattened in 1991, and despite administration rhetoric to the contrary, there is no hard proof that he has successfully rearmed.

As Butler recently told CNN: "[T]hey tend to traipse out former [UN Inspectors] boss Richard Butler who has said that the biological program is a black hole. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. But the fact is they have not made a substantive case that Iraq continues to possess or is in pursuit of developing a biological weapons program.”

Others are not so sanguine.

Sadaam's Inventory

Sadaam’s inventory of WMD is thought to include sarin and VX gas, which attack the central nervous system, often lethally -- as well as anthrax and botulism, said Charles A. Duelfer, the former deputy chairman of the United Nations commission that monitored Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons programs until 2000.

Duelfer estimates that Iraq has between one dozen and three dozen advanced Scud missiles that can travel up to 375 miles, as well as drones, artillery shells and bombs capable of dispersing chemical and biological agents. "Whatever he’s got now, it’s less than what he had in 1991,” Mr. Duelfer said. "But in 1991 we weren’t going to Baghdad. It’s different now.”

And Duelfer is not alone. Based on U.N. reports, Iraq Watch estimates that Baghdad has an ample supply of aerial bombs, munitions and missile warheads that could deliver chemical weapons such as VX nerve gas.

According to Watch, Sadaam has 157 bombs and 25 missile warheads suitable for germ agents -- anthrax, aflotoxin and botulinum.

"We know that they built such things before the Gulf war, and we know not all of them have been found,” said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, which includes Iraq Watch.

Additionally, Iraq Watch believes the country may still have as many as 50 Scud missiles standing by as potential delivery vehicles.

Training for the Worst

Signals of official "moderate” concerns aside, the Army’s bio-chemical warfare school at Fort Leonard Wood continues to crank out about 5,000 trained soldiers a year.

A recent report put the total number of trained troops ready to mount out full tilt into whatever clouds of poison Sadaam throws their way at 17, 587. This number is enough to flesh out a specialized brigade, as well as attach chemical warfare specialists to most combat units.

Also belying the moderate concern label: some key details of invasion scenarios including the location of an initial assault and the best time of year to begin are contingent upon some perceived measure of bio-chemical threat. Certainly, say the experts, any U.S. invasion would not come in the hot weather as it makes the wearing of the cumbersome protective suits at best problematic.

Scenarios include a cornered and frantic Sadaam firing missiles tipped with chemical or biological warheads -- not only at U.S. assembly areas but also at Israel and other allies.

Countering this: more accurate U.S. airpower and more extensive intelligence than in 1991. Reportedly, intelligence officials have already pinpointed most likely chemical and biological weapons sites in Iraq.

Ready to engage such targets in a preemptory, preemptory attack: scads of "smart” bombs. One in 10 bombs dropped in the Gulf War were smart. Six in 10 were smart during the initial softening up of Afghanistan last fall. It has been suggested that in Gulf War II, that number will increase.

During the Gulf War, it took hours to get intelligence on the movement of Scud missile launchers. Defense officials say bombers can now strike such targets within 30 minutes.

Dave Eberhart, NewsMax
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/7/7/175819.shtml