V's City of London source was right, Russian offensive now going overt from quasi-covert -- Mariupol capture humiliating implications for US/NATO
If Mariupol falls or even is simply cut off with its Ukrainian garrison left to whither on the vine while subject to partisan attacks inside the city in the next week or three -- there is the real risk the serious humiliation for Kiev, Brussels, Washington and NATO could be coming. Which is exactly what V's City of London source specified.
What I mean is that once Novorossiya has a port, the sea is free for the innocent passage of all, and since Ukraine lost its entire Navy when Russia re-annexed Crimea in March there won't be a Ukrainian Navy to stop the Iranians, Venezuelans, or even the Chinese from sailing in their frigates escorting humanitarian cargo ships or container vessels. Only the US Navy or NATO navies could try to stop this, but since they don't have any grounds under international law to do so it could erupt into a 2nd Cuban Missile Crisis-type blockade (technically an act of war under maritime law), only one which would have to be aborted because the Russians have the home waters advantage and hundreds of cruise-missile equipped aircraft that would fly over the Navy ships until they backed off.
The Turks would probably want nothing to do with any naval game of chicken, given that they just expanded their trade ties with Moscow and plan to make up for all of the banned fruits and vegetables that used to come from the EU this winter.
Meaning most likely once Novorossiya has their port Venezuela, Iran and other Russian allies can sail their 'humanitarian aid' right into Mariupol and effectively spit in NATO's eye while doing it. Hell, the ChiComs might even send a destroyer to make a port call in Abkhazia if not Novorossiya-held Mariupol just to join in the NATO humiliation.
The Novorossiya plan appears to be to cut off Mariupol from the rest of Ukraine and force the Ukrainian military to choose between trying to rescue 6-7,000 encircled, besieged Ukrainian soldiers and militiamen south of Donetsk, or try to break through a thin Russian/Novorossiyan line between Mariupol and the rest of the country. My guess is given the fact that a humiliating surrender of the Ukrainian pocket can be covered up by the Western press while the fall of Mariupol to the Russians/Novorossiyan combined forces cannot, Kiev will choose the political rather than sound military option and abandon the pocket to its fate while desperately trying to break through to Mariupol. And this is exactly what the Russians are counting on.
Keep in mind too that there are plenty of young men and middle aged men left in Mariupol who hate the Kiev government, who've been dodging the draft and waiting for the opportunity to avenge the murders by the Nazi SS Wolfsangel-banner wearing Azov Battalion when they entered the city on May 9 -- Victory Day or the most sacred secular Russian/former USSR holiday. On that day the Azov Battalion shot at least two unarmed people in cold blood in the streets and murdered 20 or more police officers for 'betraying Ukraine' by hitting the police HQ in the city with cannon fire from APCs. There are more than a few people itching for payback and ready and willing to provide the NAF/Russians with a 5th column in the city, especially if they get to settle the score with Azov who had their HQ nearby in a mansion that had previously been 'owned' by Yanukovich on the coastline.
Last but not least, on top of the humiliation of Kiev at Russian/Novorossiyan hands with Moscow increasingly not giving a damn if its paratroopers and even spetsnaz are finally proven to be operating in Ukraine, there's the upcoming report on MH17 the first week of September. How much you guys want to bet Moscow has been holding back its copies of the MH17 air traffic control communications that Kiev, Australia, Netherlands and US have all signed an agreement not to release? Better yet, the Russians may agree not to release the evidence they have proving Kiev's complicity in the MH17 shootdown and redirection of the plane over a known air defense zone, but in return for not blowing the false flag demand NATO back down and let Russian forces carve out the Novorossiya coastal corridor all the way from Novoazovsk on the Russian border to Crimea. Hopefully the truth about MH17 will be released and there won't be any corrupt deals to bury it in return for the US not being exposed as having its Kiev proxies murder 298 people from Australia on the Malaysian Airlines flight. C.D.G.
Aug 28, 2014