I got this in the two hours I was asleep. David lives in Taiwan.

Important Message for Sept-Oct 2019 Time Frame For Supply Chain & Finance Disruptions

As the 70th Anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and its National Day close in on October 1st, Xi JinPing the current ruler is being perceived as weak by other party officials. Additionally, his political enemies are numerous as Xi’s anti-corruption campaign over the last nine years is a thinly veiled excuse to remove those that would threaten his power. Fast forward to Hong Kong over the first week of September where the situation is truly out of control and the airport is blockaded for the second time in as many weeks crippling international air travel.

Well known in the Chinese media is that the HK protests will not be allowed to drag into the 70th CCP anniversary on National Day, so Xi has no choice but to use force to quell the protests. Since Xi is seen as weak by the leadership, I feel he will crush the protesters with ferocity to send a message to all with eyes and ears to hear.
This will have near instant effect across Asian freight, banking and economy with ripples to the rest of the planet.

First, during the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, social media was not a factor then, it is now, and even more so in the social justice warrior era. China is counting on people to forget after this happens, but we are in a new era now.

Secondly, shipping will be greatly curtailed out of HK, so as I have heard Kaohsiung port in southern Taiwan and Singapore will take more reloading, but that will not be enough so Japan will use three ports to deal with the disruptions. Expect slowdowns on non-deliveries to onward destinations.

Third, banking flows in and out of HK will be effected as any such Chinese military moves will involve cutting internet communications. You may not have a bank account in Asia or HK, but the banks you use sure do.

Fourth, the boycott of Chinese products will be instantaneous worldwide. With that known, if 50% of your choices are Chinese in a store, 100% of buyers will move to the 50% of non-Chinese products. Expect shortages.

Fifth, the collapse of the global economy will begin at that time as China is too intertwined with sovereign debt of hundreds of nations, and a boycott of Chinese products will nearly instantly force hundreds of thousands of factories in China to close and amplify the already ongoing banking crisis internally.

Sixth, as internal strife grips China, the government will lash out and blame others, which in my opinion will begin a hot war, which will further disrupt goods inbound to many nations.

If Xi does not take action he will be removed from power.

October surprise?

Sep 2, 2019

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